The US has deployed a launcher for intermediate and shorter-range missiles on a strategic Danish island in the Baltic Sea; another crisis is brewing in Kosovo after a lethal shooting incident; and Seoul and Tokyo are seeking to normalize their strained relations with Beijing. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines across Russia, TASS reports.
Kommersant: US deploys mid-, shorter-range missile launcher on Danish island in Baltic Sea
A US-made ground launcher. which can be used for missiles previously banned under the Russia-US Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, has been deployed to Europe for the first time. Specifically, a launcher for Raytheon Standard SM-6 missiles was brought to Denmark during the joint US-Danish drills that wrapped up on Monday on Denmark’s Baltic Sea island of Bornholm. The Russian authorities stated earlier that they would not deploy previously banned missiles unless the US made such a move first, Kommersant notes.
"The drills in Europe, which included the deployment of a ground-based launcher that can potentially be used for hitting ground targets with intermediate-and shorter-range missiles, may raise the question of the so-called moratorium on the deployment of similar Russian weapons systems to the region," said Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. "I believe that at this stage, formal inquiries will be sent via diplomatic channels, but its seems appropriate to strengthen Russia’s position by an open or ‘leaked’ move to test the weapons that Russia announced following the United States’ withdrawal from the INF Treaty, including the land-based version of the Kalibr cruise missile and an intermediate-range hypersonic missile," he added.
The expert pointed out that there had been no reports of Russia using the 9М729 land-based cruise missile during its military operation in Ukraine, while the US had cited its deployment as a formal pretext to pull out of the treaty. "Meanwhile, reports have surfaced in the media, citing anonymous sources, which concerned the land-based version of the Tsirkon hypersonic missile and a weapon called Zmeyevik, which fits the description of a ground-based intermediate-range hypersonic missile system exactly," Stefanovich noted.
Mikhail Barabanov, scientific editor of the Export Vooruzheny (or Arms Exports) magazine, in turn, emphasized that "since the INF Treaty is dead, these are the consequences of its death." "The Americans have a huge arsenal of naval missiles that can be described as being of ‘intermediate-and short-range’ and may be easily and quickly adapted to be launched from ground-based systems, which is what the US is now doing," the analyst explained.
Vedomosti: New crisis situation flares up in Kosovo after shooting incident
An incident involving the deaths of three armed Serbs in a clash with Kosovo police officers in the north of the partially recognized Republic of Kosovo is part of Pristina’s "brutal ethnic cleansing" of the region, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said at a meeting with the Russian ambassador in Belgrade. The Kremlin described the situation as "tense" and "potentially dangerous," Vedomosti writes.
The incident took place on September 24. According to the Kosovar authorities in Pristina, a group of armed men attacked policemen in northern Kosovo. They blocked a bridge near the village of Banska, using two vans, barricaded themselves in a monastery and continued shooting at law enforcement officers. The Kosovar police announced that three of the gunmen had been killed and one arrested. On September 25, the body of a fourth killed Serb was found, Kosovo prosecutors said. While the Kosovar authorities pointed the finger at Belgrade, Vucic denied any involvement by Serbia.
Belgrade is doing its best to pretend that it is not responsible for the clash and the statement that "you can kill us all but we will not recognize Kosovo" is just a routine expression of discontent that will not have any tangible consequences, Anastasia Maleshevich, a researcher with the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), explained. It is another thing that the situation requires an investigation because it is impossible to simply say that it was an individual initiative by a group of Kosovo Serbs as such incidents may recur, Maleshevich noted.
These developments are no different from what has been happening in this part of the Balkans for 30 years, said Oleg Bondarenko, founder of the Balkanist project. The expert believes that the situation will not change until the parties come to an agreement, which could include an exchange of territories, with Pristina handing three Serb-populated districts over to Belgrade in exchange for two ethnic Albanian communities.
Otherwise, in Bondarenko’s words, the outbreak of full-scale military operations is a distinct possibility. However, he stressed that the current situation would not lead to a major escalation of tensions because none of the parties, including the United States and the European Union, is ready for that.
Izvestia: Seoul, Tokyo seeking normalization of relations with Beijing
Seoul and Tokyo have embarked on an effort to normalize relations with Beijing amid a rapprochement between Russia and North Korea and fears that China may join them. High-ranking diplomats from South Korea, Japan and China are holding talks on September 26, which are supposed to pave the way for a trilateral summit. In addition, Seoul announced that it was looking forward to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit, Izvestia writes.
According to Konstantin Asmolov, leading research fellow at the Korean Studies Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia, "South Korea has long been trying to pursue a more balanced policy than it seems: While associating himself with the US on the North Korea issue, [President] Yoon Suk Yeol is seeking as much freedom of action as possible on the Russian and Chinese tracks." The expert noted that, "despite US pressure, Yoon keeps trying to find a balance between the dominant sovereign power in terms of security and values and its main trading partner."
As for Japan, Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia, pointed out that Tokyo has set a course toward containing China in every possible way, declaring it the main security threat and using it as a pretext to strengthen relations with the US and NATO while boosting its own military capacity. The recent start of wastewater discharges from the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant has also had a negative impact on relations between the two countries as it not only sparked outrage in China but also prompted Beijing to fully ban the import of Japanese seafood, the analyst noted.
"On the other hand, Tokyo understands that it’s not a good thing to have a hostile neighbor and a balanced approach needs to be found. In particular, important progress was made in the summer, when China and Japan finally established a hotline between their defense ministries, a move they had been attempting to agree on for a decade. On the whole, Japan would like to return to a constructive path of relations with China, especially since Tokyo largely depends on Beijing economically," the expert added
Media: Why Macron announced withdrawal of French troops from Niger
France’s decision to withdraw its troops from Niger, where a coup took place recently, effectively puts an end to any plans by the regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), to launch an intervention, Izvestia writes, citing experts.
Ihab Nafi’a, an Africa expert, believes that an ECOWAS military intervention is no longer on the agenda. Nigeria, which first put forward the initiative to intervene, has now decided to abandon the plan, while other ECOWAS member states realize that it makes no sense to try to resolve the issue in such a manner. In addition, the recent move by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to sign a security pact marks a true revolution in African society. It is a message to the entire post-colonial world that African nations are capable of defending themselves and determining their own political and economic agenda, as well as of managing their natural resources.
Nikita Panin, program director of the Russian International Affairs Council, in turn, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to withdraw French troops has largely put an end to the coup story and international reaction to developments in Niger. That said, it is not so much about framing the Niger story in a new context as much as Niger’s neighbors reconciling themselves to the state of affairs in the West African country.
According to the expert, French diplomacy failed to bring about the full isolation of Niger. The September 17 creation of a Sahel security alliance bringing together Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger finally put an end to France’s attempts to turn back the tide. It actually showed that Paris did not have enough influence in the region to steer the situation towards a path that would benefit France. "On the other hand, I would not rush to conclusions about France completely losing its influence in the region. Clearly, anti-French rhetoric is currently on the rise in African countries, but it’s important to see how the situation unfolds. It is too early to draw conclusions," the analyst added.
Izvestia: Russian grain exports see more than two-fold jump
Russia has more than doubled its grain exports for the first time in at least three years. According to the Federal Customs Service’s data from mid-September, grain exports stood at 44.6 mln metric tons. The share of agricultural exports going to friendly countries has reached 87%, Izvestia writes.
According to Valdai Club Program Director Oleg Barabanov, Russian grain exports earlier experienced logistics issues. First of all, it is not safe for ships to use Black Sea ports at this point, which has led to a rise in insurance premiums and compelled many insurance companies to refuse to work with Russian grain exporters. Alternate routes running through the Far East translate into higher costs, which is why the Russian agricultural sector was facing a serious challenge, but the fact that the country has managed to boost exports is a good sign indicating that the sector is adapting to the situation, the expert emphasized.
This year’s prospects are quite good as it is already safe to say that Russia will be able to export over 60 mln tons of grain, independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut maintained. He stressed that Russia had a leading position, accounting for over 20% of the world’s grain exports. The country has traditionally sold grain to countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh and Algeria, Egypt and other African nations, as well as Indonesia and Brazil.
The Middle East, China and other Asian countries may prove to be a promising market in the near future, said Alexander Daniltsev, head of the Institute of Trade Policy at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). "There is an increasing demand for meat products in these countries, while grain can be used in animal feed. Experts are recording good demand levels in the Middle East," the expert explained. Moreover, the countries of the region often serve as hubs for the further distribution of resources. For instance, Turkey processes grain into flour to export it further to Africa and poorer countries, Daniltsev concluded.
