— Why did the Armenian leadership let Karabakh fall?

— Understanding this requires a lot of analysis, most likely a military-political one. The military knows better what Armenia's weakness was. But, in my view, all this happened, among other things, because of Nikol Pashinyan’s personal ambitions and grievance against Artsakh, its former leaders and those who fled it. So, he sought some sort of revenge, and was persistent along this track. Besides, he has never concealed his anti-Russian sentiment, animus towards the Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia’s need to quit CSTO and make a pivot to the West. As for most residents of Artsakh, or Nagorno-Karabakh, they are wholeheartedly pro-Russian, given Moscow’s repeated help on separate occasions. Back in the 19th century, Russian blood was shed there, and the territory was part of the Russian Empire. These centuries-old ties are at the back of Artsakh people’s minds, and their souls are overwhelmed with true love for Russia and the Russians. Pashinyan and his team, who came to power in the wake of political turmoil, loathed this in good earnest.

— Was the situation hopeless to Yerevan inmilitary and political terms?

— Of course, it wasn’t when it all started. I think all of this was done deliberately, and the new Armenian authorities were seeking this, indeed. Let me quote two instances. In the very beginning, Pashinyan stated Karabakh was Armenia, Artsakh was Armenia — period. Then, March 2020 saw the President of Nagorno-Karabakh be inaugurated in Shusha, and Pashinyan flew there for everyone to see. But his subsequent cheapjack provocations caused a rebuff with Azerbaijan, and Baku used the objective prerequisites to embark upon its military operations. Things could have been different if the real goal was to avert war. But it wasn’t, apparently, and hostilities became inevitable.

— Is there a threat of a total exodus of the region’s natives?

— There is! It has already begun. People leave their belongings and houses behind. The lucky ones leave by transport, but the single highway’s capacity is not that high. There is a variety of reasons for the mass exodus. Azerbaijan has warned that it will listwise persecute those implicated in the first and second Karabakh wars. But nearly every family has someone directly linked to warfare. How can they stay while aware of the upcoming repression and punishment on the part of Azerbaijan? Therefore, except for some elderly families who no longer care where they die, the rest will leave Karabakh, most likely to Armenia. Western countries promise to sort things out and have referred to the situation as temporary, with everything to calm down and people to return to their native places by agreement with Azerbaijan. But these are all fairy tales. No one will return there under any kind of guarantees. Lawlessness is flourishing, Azerbaijan has captured entire villages, the civilian death toll has emerged. So, people are ready to lose everything but never be part of Azerbaijan again.

— What is the role and interests of Turkey here?

— Turkey is teaming up with Azerbaijan, no secret about it. Both are Turkic-speaking countries claiming to be a single nation, a single people. They don't conceal it. Moreover, they regard Azerbaijan’s alliance pact with Turkey as a cunning and optimal move. And Turkey's interests are as follows. First, a glance at the map will let you see that Armenia is sort of wedged between Azerbaijan and Turkey, hindering their direct communication and ties. Second, Turkey has declared the fact of siding with Azerbaijan since the first Karabakh war, terminating diplomatic relations with Armenia and declaring a blockade of all its roads and railways with it. Azerbaijan did the same. In other words, Turkey's policy has always been solidarity along ethnic lines. Moreover, they do have an economic interest in each other.

— And what are the goals pursued by the US and the EU in South Caucasus?

— It is clear to both ordinary citizens and politicians that their key goal is ousting Russia from Transcaucasia. Making sure that there is no Russian military base; that Armenia withdraws from all the allied associations; and that the two states break up with each other in the end. The USA and the EU need all of this to gain access to the region’s energy resources. There is a big political game going on, and we Armenians should not trust any Western tales. We have a proven and reliable friend, Russia. Our centuries-old friendship has been proved by time, bloodshed, and WWII. Armenia cannot just shy away from Russia overnight. I hope my wise people will draw the right conclusions, calm down, and weigh everything to straighten things out. One should not act recklessly in the heat of the moment, forgetting and writing off history or trusting someone's stories about a better tomorrow. My relatives and I are sure that the West is not going to care about our people that much. In addition, it seeks doing away with the North-South corridor created by Russia and Iran, thus harming both Russia and Armenia. In general, the West will do whatever it takes to stand in Russia’s light, and the worse Russia feels, the better for the West. With Armenia drawn into its orbit, it will boss around without let or hindrance.

— What can Russia do in this situation?

— Russia has a huge Armenian Diaspora; we are all citizens of this country and have to support Armenians in Armenia in every possible way. We must use people's diplomacy to counteract the hatred tide Western spin-doctors stage. And Russia should now hold its nerve and play it cool towards irresponsible statements meant to decouple the two peoples. But I am sure Russia will find ways to keep living together and cultivating our centuries-long friendship. And we will be here for those who work in the best interests of the Russian-Armenian friendship.