Kiev is worried that Washington will suspend military support, the Russian government has proposed steps to alleviate the fuel crisis, and Turkey is waiting for Washington’s F-16 supplies. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev concerned Washington will halt military assistance
Ukraine's Ambassador to Washington Oksana Markarova stated that she intends not only to monitor the progress of US Congress’ budget proposal to finance the government through November 17, which includes $6.1 bln in aid to Kiev, but also to actively advocate for continued support to Ukraine. Meanwhile, experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta believe that until power changes hands after the upcoming presidential election in 2024, Washington’s support for Ukraine is unlikely to see any drastic cutbacks.
It should be noted that within the framework of additional expenditures from the federal budget requested by the US administration from Congress in early August, around $24 bln was to be allocated for military assistance to Ukraine for the 2023 fiscal year. But amid difficulties agreeing on the budget, in late August the White House called on congressmen to okay a short-term extension that would keep the government funded. If the budget for the next financial year, starting on October 1, is not adopted by the end of September, some government departments will have to suspend work.
Obviously, with the current makeup of Congress and Biden still in office, no one should expect financial support for Ukraine to be significantly reduced, Director of the Center for North American Studies at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Victoria Zhuravleva told the newspaper. She believes the sentiment might be somewhat different in the Republican Party, but as long as Republicans do not have a majority in the Senate, they are unlikely to be able to push their position. Some compromises should be expected, such as Joe Biden agreeing to adjust certain criteria, including tightening oversight.
What happens will depend on whether the Republican Party is able to regain control of the Senate in the future. Only then will Washington consider changing its approach regarding continuing assistance to Ukraine, Zhuravleva noted.
Kommersant: Russian government proposes measures to combat fuel crisis
The crisis on the fuel market has piqued the interest of Russian President Vladimir Putin - at a recent meeting Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak advocated stabilizing fuel prices by reinstating budget damping payments to oil companies, which have been cut in half since September. He also vowed to raise the protective duty for fuel "resellers" to 50,000 rubles ($516.9) per ton, which is supposed to solve the problem of gray exports. The price of gasoline and diesel fuel has not peaked yet, but Kommersant's sources believe that immediate action will be required in the near future.
A source told the newspaper that if modifications to the Tax Code are adopted in October, they will not go into effect until December, but they could be implemented "retroactively."
At the same time, several Kommersant sources believe that an "emergency" systemic solution is required to stabilize fuel prices, which rose to historic highs in September due to the expansion of export options. The government must act quickly to find a solution, or the export ban will have a negative impact on oil refining.
Novak also proposed raising the protective duty on gasoline exports for "resellers" from 20,000 to 50,000 rubles ($206.8 to 516.9) per ton. However, Kommersant's industry sources believe that this measure will not completely eliminate gray exports: currently, it does not apply to small and medium-sized refineries that do not produce commercial oil products but earn money from supplies abroad and are considered the main gray exporters in times of high export prices.
Another manual adjustment may help to control the turbulence in the fuel market, but Olesya Nikiforova from Kept believes that in the long run, a systemic adjustment to the law is needed to balance the interests of the state, business, and the end consumer. Boris Sinitsyn, an independent commodity company specialist, feels that restoring the damper may benefit the budget.
Izvestia: Brussels lays out conditions for Serbia joining EU
Serbia will not be able to join the European Union unless it normalizes dialogue with Kosovo, the EU’s Lead Spokesperson for foreign affairs and security policy Peter Stano told Izvestia. At the same time, the National Assembly of Serbia does not believe the country will ever be able to join the European Union because Brussels insists that it recognizes Pristina's independence. Furthermore, the recent escalation in the region suggests that the territorial conflict will not be addressed anytime soon.
According to Stano, EU expansion is based on the merits of certain states, and the pace of accession negotiations is primarily determined by candidates' progress in carrying out fundamental reforms, particularly in the field of law. "As for Serbia, the European path of both Kosovo (an unrecognized republic - Izvestia) and Serbia will come through dialogue with the assistance of the EU and through the normalization of their relations," said Stano.
Meanwhile, Belgrade does not seem to believe that the country will be able to join the EU in the near future. Ivan Kosti·, a member of the National Assembly from the Dveri party, believes that Serbia will not be able to join the European Union either in 2030 or anytime in the future.
According to Ekaterina Entina, a professor at the Higher School of Economics, Belgrade will be unable to join the EU unless it recognizes Pristina's sovereignty, even though five of the union's current member countries do not recognize the republic's independence.
Given this, in the face of Western pressure, Serbian political leaders have begun to consider joining BRICS, and Belgrade moving away from European integration cannot be ruled out in the near future, Izvestia writes.
Vedomosti: Turkey waiting on Washington to unfreeze F-16 supplies
On the night of September 28, US Senator Bob Menendez will appear in federal court in Manhattan to face fraud charges. The New Jersey Democrat is a staunch opponent of the Turkish Air Force receiving upgraded American F-16 fighter jets. Earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the purchase of these aircraft was one of the conditions for the Turkish Parliament's ratification of the protocol on Sweden's NATO membership, which is scheduled for October, and expressed satisfaction with the beginning of proceedings against the senator, Vedomosti writes.
According to Academic Director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov, the investigation against Menendez is a blow to the Democrats, as it gives Republicans additional points in their campaign against them due to the prosecution of one of their important leaders.
Many factors are involved in the future deliveries of F-16s and F-35s, but the overall trend in Turkey-US relations indicates a strengthening of ties, despite continuing differences on a number of international policy issues, the expert added.
According to Arif Asalioglu, Director General of the International Institute of the Development of Scientific Cooperation, Menendez's temporary removal would not affect delivery of US weapons to Turkey. According to the expert, prior to the G20 conference in New Delhi on September 9, US President Joe Biden confirmed these commitments in a conversation with Erdogan, and both nations are interested in improving relations. "On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, American officials announced that they had agreed to send a batch of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in the near future, and Turkish authorities agreed to ease the restriction on Sweden joining NATO. As a result, I believe that Ankara will not propose new criteria," the analyst said.
Vedomosti: Russia boosts coal production
Russia’s coal production in January - August 2023 increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 280 mln tons, according to the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat). For the first time since March, production increased in August compared to the previous month, reaching 34 mln tons. Prior to this, coal production in Russia had been falling for several months - from 38.6 mln tons in March to 33 mln tons in July. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, seasonal factors as well as increasing capacity use by metallurgical enterprises influenced coal output.
Boris Krasnozhenov, Head of Alfa Bank's equity research, noted that export prices for energy coal are currently rising. According to him, as the winter season approaches, demand will continue to grow, and with it prices. He believes that this will make it possible to maintain a high level of coal shipments in the second half of the year.
Analysts predict that shipments to the domestic market will increase as well. Dmitry Kazakov, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, told the newspaper that coal supplies to thermal power plants always increase as the heating season approaches in September and October. He also emphasized that the demand for coking coal in Russia has increased sharply as a result of increased capacity utilization at metallurgical enterprises.
According to Krasnozhenov's forecasts, coal production in Russia could grow by 1-1.5% in 2023. Thus, Vedomosti estimates that production will increase to 441-450 mln tons.
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