Brussels seeking rhetorical win with talk about talks on Ukraine's EU accession; Azerbaijani President Aliyev cancels trip to Spain for first post-Karabakh operation sit-down with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan; and OPEC+ members decide to maintain current output levels. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS.

 Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Brussels speeding up negotiations on Ukraine joining EU at least rhetorically

European Council President Charles Michel acknowledged the possibility that Ukraine could join the EU by 2030. Even if Kiev falls short on meeting the seven conditions set forth by Brussels, the European Union summit in December may announce that it is ready to commence negotiations on Ukraine's entrance to the EU, according to Western media. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the rhetoric trumpeting Ukraine's potential accession to the EU is mostly a way for the EU leadership to burnish its image. However, it does signal the real possibility that a formal decision to start negotiations on Ukraine's EU membership may be forthcoming soon.

Following the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kiev on Monday and ahead of the informal EU summit in Granada, Spain, on Friday, Michel made a series of new statements on Ukraine's prospects for EU membership. In an interview with French weekly L’Express, he sought to tamp down fears surrounding Ukraine's possible entry into the European Union, pointing out that the country still faces a major reconstruction effort that  must be financed. At the same time, however, he told Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine that Ukraine could join the EU by 2030.

According to Andrey Sidorov, dean of the World Politics Department at Moscow State University, a country must meet a number of standards to join the EU. Of course, Brussels can change the procedural norms, but this requires the approval of all EU member states, which would be virtually impossible to achieve at the moment.

Statements about Ukraine's prospects for EU membership by Michel and other EU leaders, whose terms expire next year, sound increasingly like empty rhetoric, the expert added. However, it remains crucial for Kiev that the very idea of its future membership in the bloc is somehow validated, since NATO membership for Ukraine was effectively abandoned earlier this year, he noted. Given this background, a formal decision could be announced to start accession negotiations. And, such negotiations could then go through countless rounds, dragging on indefinitely, Sidorov told the newspaper.

Vedomosti: Azerbaijan’s Aliyev turns back on planned Spain talks with Armenia’s Pashinyan

On October 5, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cancelled plans to travel to Granada, Spain, for what were to be his first talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan since Baku launched its "anti-terrorist operation" in Nagorno-Karabakh. The meeting was also expected to be attended by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel, Vedomosti writes. According to media reports, Baku had insisted that a Turkish official also be allowed to attend the meeting, but France and Germany refused. Azerbaijani state news agency APA reported, citing sources, that uncomplimentary statements by French officials regarding Baku were another factor that prompted to Aliyev to abandon the trip.

According to Arnaud Dubien, director of the French-Russian analytical center Observo, Paris’ Caucasus policy is dictated by pro-Armenian popular sentiment in France. According to him, the country is home to a substantial and prominent Armenian diaspora of 400,000-750,000 people. Dubien added that France’s choice to provide military support to Armenia is also driven by the prevalence of Turkish and Russian influences in the South Caucasus.

According to Stanislav Pritchin, an expert at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), France also feels the need to somehow compensate for its embarrassing policy failures in Africa and other foreign policy areas. "In this regard, Armenia is the most favorable country for achieving a political PR effect. However, objectively and technically, Paris has little chance of expelling Russia from Armenia," the expert added.

At the same time, Pritchin believes that Aliyev’s unwillingness to attend the Granada talks is unlikely to result in Moscow becoming the primary mediator in the process by default. "Given the deterioration in Armenian-Russian relations, I doubt that Yerevan would agree to Moscow’s mediation in [Armenia] signing off on such fateful decisions. The Western overseers would be equally displeased," the expert noted.

Vedomosti: Russian airlines’ international flights surge, reaching post-pandemic peak

Russian airlines boosted passenger transportation on international flights by 33% year on year to 14.6 mln people in January-August 2023, according to data from the Federal Air Transport Agency analyzed by Vedomosti. This is the highest figure for this period since the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Passenger traffic to non-CIS nations surged 46% year on year, while transportation to CIS countries rose by 23%.

In January-August 2019, Russian airlines handled 37 mln passengers on overseas flights, but by 2020 this figure had dropped to 9.6 mln. The passenger flow rebounded somewhat to 12.1 mln people in 2021, but plummeted again to 11 mln passengers in 2022 against the backdrop of the special military operation in Ukraine, anti-Russian sanctions, and the suspension of flights by Russian airlines to unfriendly nations.

Access to international flights was hindered by anti-pandemic measures in 2020-2021 and by sanctions in 2022, which resulted in a shortage of capacity on international routes, the expert added.

Fedor Borisov, senior expert at the Institute of Transport Economics and Transport Policy Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), considers the 13% increase in passenger traffic significant, noting that the pace of domestic airlines is "quite impressive" compared to GDP growth rates. "This year, people can fly to Turkey, Egypt, the UAE and Thailand, and for various reasons, flights to the CIS countries, especially Armenia and Kazakhstan, remain in high demand. In general, we are seeing recovery growth along with market stabilization," Borisov said.

 Izvestia: OPEC+ countries resolve to maintain current production volumes

The decision by OPEC+ members to maintain current production levels will benefit oil prices and keep them above $90 per barrel in the coming months, experts told Izvestia. On October 4, the OPEC+ monitoring committee urged the cartel to abide by previously accepted agreements. At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that Russia would continue to voluntarily reduce supplies to global markets by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) until the end of December 2023. Saudi Arabia also expressed its determination to comply with the agreements.

The current oil price benefits all OPEC+ participants, and the goal now is not to increase the price of oil, but to keep it at the current level, according to Artem Tuzov, Director of the Capital Markets Department at IVA Partners. "OPEC+ members do not want to sell a large amount of oil at low prices. However, they are ready to work and fill the budgets of countries on the basis of the current ones," the analyst said.

According to Finam analyst Oksana Lukicheva, OPEC+’s recent decision to leave the current terms of the deal unchanged indicates a significant level of uncertainty among cartel members about the future state of demand.

In turn, Freedom Finance analyst Vladimir Chernov believes that there are currently no conditions for revising the terms of the OPEC deal, as world oil prices are at levels that are comfortable for all global exporters of "black gold." "At the same time, there is a chance that global oil prices will rise next week. The holiday week in China will end, industrial producers will start working and consumption of oil products will increase along with global demand for them and crude oil for their production," the expert added.

Izvestia: Abkhazia sees Union State as 'meeting its interests,' mulls option of joining

Abkhazia is interested in post-Soviet integration processes, and participating in the Union State, alongside Russia and Belarus, would be in line with Sukhumi’s foreign policy goals, President Aslan Bzhania said in an interview with Izvestia. In addition, the South Caucasus country is ready to expand military and technical cooperation with Russia, including plans for establishing a permanent Black Sea base for the Russian Navy in the country in the future.

"Interaction with Russia is unique for us, there are probably no similar examples, with the exception of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Many things have changed for the better since Russia recognized the independence of the Republic of Abkhazia. The most important thing that we appreciate and would like to emphasize is that peace has been firmly established in Abkhazia," he said.

Speaking about Abkhazia’s potential participation in Union State projects, Bzhania noted: "It is difficult to survive alone in this very unpredictable world, and of course we would like to see our allied relations with Russia strengthened in accordance with our interstate agreements. And the agreement of November 24, 2014 explicitly stipulates that Russia will develop conditions for Abkhazia’s participation in integration processes on the territory of the former Soviet Union. Participation in such an agreement together with Belarus in the future would be a step in the right direction and would benefit Abkhazia’s interests."

"Much has been achieved in terms of military cooperation with Russia, but there are still many measures to be taken, which we are constantly doing. <...> We have reached an agreement, and the Russian Navy will have a permanent base in the Ochamchira District in the near future," Bzhania added.

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