Putin arrives in China to attend the Third Belt and Road Forum; Ankara is seeking to promote its own model for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; and the US may combine aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan in a single bill. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Putin arrives in China for two-day visit to attend Third Belt and Road Forum
On October 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing to attend the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. However, the first day of his work schedule in China was primarily devoted to bilateral negotiations. In particular, Putin met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who acknowledged that the dialogue is taking place amid the most difficult of circumstances. Furthermore, Putin met with representatives of a number of Asian countries, which have maintained neutrality during Russia’s special military operation. Experts told Izvestia, however, that work under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can help to facilitate further Russian-Chinese cooperation, which is of course the primary focus of Putin’s visit.
The keynote events of Putin’s visit to China are scheduled for October 18, with Russian-Chinese talks at the forefront. Putin and his host, Chinese President Xi Jinping, will compare notes on the international agenda, according to Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Regional conflicts, such as the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian confrontation, will also be highlighted. However, the agenda does not include the signing of any bilateral agreements.
"Our countries are strategic partners, and this is more than just words. It is no longer about just Russian exports of raw materials to China and imports of [Chinese] consumer goods to Russia. We are actively developing scientific and technical cooperation, transportation projects and cooperation in agriculture," Konstantin Andrianov, associate professor in the Department of Institutional Economics at the State University of Management, told Izvestia.
The development of joint efforts in such high-tech fields as semiconductor production, in particular, and artificial intelligence is a very promising area for cooperation. According to Andrianov, joining the ranks of China's top five trading partners is a critical objective for Russia. Last year, bilateral trade surpassed $180 bln.
Work within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative can help to facilitate further Russian-Chinese cooperation. "China’s huge investments in the infrastructure of the participants in this project are helping boost local economies, providing jobs, and increasing tax revenues for the budgets of these countries, and thus developing their economies," Viktor Pirozhenko, an expert at Huzhou University's Intercultural Research Center, told Izvestia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ankara seeking to present its own concept for Palestine settlement
On October 18, Saudi Arabia will host an emergency meeting in Jeddah of the foreign ministers of members states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to discuss the situation in Palestine. Turkey has already stated its intention to present its own initiative for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Under the plan, Ankara would appoint its own group of international guarantors for each side of the conflict, which would then be responsible for overseeing the implementation of agreements. However, the concept will likely face obstacles, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Grigory Lukyanov, researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Asian Studies, told the newspaper that the OIC is not a well-known platform for resolving interstate disputes. "Nevertheless, in the current conditions in the Middle East there are no effective international organizations that could facilitate a settlement, because there are no inclusive formats that would encompass all interested actors at the regional level," Lukyanov noted.
According to the expert, Turkey is a key player in these diplomatic processes. "Ankara is trying to play the role of a globally responsible actor capable of helping to resolve crises. [Turkey’s] model for Gaza proposes to build on what other countries have achieved," he said, adding that Ankara's initiative would inevitably face risks and costs. "There is still a lack of strategic trust among Arab countries and insufficient experience in resolving such a complex problem on their own. This would put the region to the test," he added.
For example, Algeria strongly supports the Palestinian movement and Hamas, but it may not be able to reach an agreement with Morocco, Lukyanov noted. "Whether there will be enough authority to provide [sufficiently convincing] guarantees to such countries as Oman or Kuwait, which have historically favored the Palestinian cause, is also a major question," he added.
Vedomosti: US may bundle aid for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan in single bill
There are growing calls in the White House and the US Congress to combine military aid for Israel and other key US allies into a single bill to make it easier to pass. According to media reports, Jim Jordan (Republican, Ohio), the current top contender for speaker of the lower chamber House of Representatives, could bring such a so-called "one and done" bill combining military aid to Ukraine and Israel to a vote should he succeed in being elected speaker. According to Vedomosti, this would bring the opposition Republicans into rare bipartisan agreement with Democratic President Joe Biden’s White House. Also supporting the "one and done" approach is Senator Lindsey Graham (Republican, South Carolina).
While the Republicans are generally willing to fund Israel and Taiwan, linking these costs to further aid for Ukraine is unlikely to pass muster, Sergey Sudakov, corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, told Vedomosti. "There will be money for both Ukraine and Israel. These will most likely be separate packages," he said. The expert believes that before deciding on whether to approve further aid for Kiev, the Republicans will demand that the Biden administration produce documentation detailing how funds already allocated to Ukraine have been spent.
"Biden's proposal to combine three tracks of military aid [to Taiwan, Israel and Ukraine] could be interpreted as an attempt to force Republicans to vote for the Ukraine package. ... However, a lot depends on who becomes speaker of the House of Representatives and, more importantly, when," Vladimir Vasiliev, head researcher at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said.
According to Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian International Affairs Council, more pro-Israeli Republicans will ask Biden to increase funding for Tel Aviv in exchange for a promise to continue supporting Ukraine. However, the inclusion of military aid in three areas in the package, according to the expert, will complicate the negotiation process between the White House and Democrats on the one hand, and with Republicans on the other.
Kommersant: Russian lawmakers move to revoke ratification of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
The Russian State Duma, or lower house of parliament, on Tuesday passed a bill, in the first of three readings, to revoke Russia's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In a show of solidarity with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who first raised the issue of de-ratification, nearly all members of the lower house signed on as co-authors of the document. The US had urged Russia not to revoke its ratification of the CTBT in order to preserve the global moratorium on nuclear testing. But the State Duma responded by reminding Washington that the US itself has not yet ratified the CTBT, Kommersant writes.
The bill to revoke Russia’s ratification of the treaty was passed by the lawmakers in a unanimous vote. State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin described the unanimity as evidence of "great consolidation" among lawmakers. Meanwhile, the day before the vote, the US had urged the State Duma not to pass the bill, with Bruce Turner, US representative to the Conference on Disarmament, warning that such an action would jeopardize the global nuclear test moratorium.
According to the US State Department, the withdrawal of ratification of the CTBT may be motivated by Moscow's desire to persuade Washington to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, Kommersant writes.
Next week, the Federation Council, or upper house of parliament, may consider and approve the bill, after which it would go to President Putin for his signature.
Meanwhile, Konstantin Vorontsov, deputy director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control, stressed that Russia's withdrawal of ratification does not necessarily mean a return to nuclear testing.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Caracas may turn away from Russia in bid to ease US sanctions weight
The Venezuelan government and the opposition have reached an agreement on the conditions for the 2024 presidential elections. President Nicolas Maduro is willing to make concessions to his opponents in order to achieve an easing of US sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry, which may be the only real way to improve the country's economic situation, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. However, if Venezuela and the United States reach an agreement, Russia's influence over Venezuela may diminish, the newspaper noted.
Removing obstacles to the opposition's full participation in the elections is the key point of the agreement. Maduro's domestic political opponents could choose a single candidate as early as this weekend. On Sunday, opposition primaries will be held, and former National Assembly member Maria Carino Machado is widely expected to win.
"It's hard to believe that Maduro will allow free elections now that he has unified the country's political field and eliminated the most dangerous and significant competitors. He understands that he could lose and is unlikely to consider external guarantees and resignation. However, there are ways to prevent agreements with the opposition from being implemented. We must not forget that court decisions must be reversed. Maduro can claim that it was the court, not him, that refused to allow Machado to run in the elections," Viktor Kheifets, director of the Center for Ibero-American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
If the opposition can overcome its differences and consolidate, the expert believes it has a good chance of winning free elections. At the same time, Kheifets believes that the White House could push for sanctions relief.
"It's possible that [US] congressmen will decide that it's better to find a common language with [Maduro] just to reduce the influence of Russia and China in Venezuela," he said. "Maduro has high hopes for US investment. But there is no guarantee that they will be justified. Restoring the country's industry will require $20-25 bln, with another $15 bln needed in the next three years. The US may be reluctant to shoulder such a financial burden," the expert concluded.
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