Russian officials and experts see Ukrainian fingerprints all over the Dagestan airport riot; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to escalate tensions with Israel and the West over Gaza, at least rhetorically; and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and the Pentagon’s top China official are both attending a key Beijing security forum. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.

Media: Russian officials, experts see Ukrainian fingerprints all over Dagestan riot

A police officer who was hurt in the riot on October 29 at the Makhachkala airport in the southern Dagestan Region of Russia is in grave condition at a local hospital now, Izvestia has learned. Earlier, law enforcement agencies detained 83 protesters, and a criminal probe into the organizers of the riot has been launched. Dagestan head Sergey Melikov said a Telegram channel that is managed from Ukraine played the key role in instigating the riot, which was discussed at an emergency meeting chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin last evening.

The October 29 riot was organized according to the classic "color revolution" playbook, with participants being encouraged to take to the streets together with their entire families "so that law enforcement agents couldn’t arrest them," Igor Ashmanov, a member of the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights, told Izvestia.

In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Alexey Makarkin, vice president of the Center for Political Technologies, blamed the situation on a combination of external and domestic factors, noting that the disorder could well have been instigated from the outside given the widespread nature of Internet access. He doubts the government will let the issue go, as a certain red line was crossed, he said, referring to the seizure of a critical state-owned infrastructure facility - the Makhachkala airport. As well, the government will need to make an example of the perpetrators as a lesson to others that such behavior is unacceptable, he added.

Aleksey Mukhin, director general of the Center for Political Information, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Ukrainian intelligence operatives and their Western handlers were behind the incident. "They used ‘sleeper’ agents already inside the country to destabilize the situation, which is why important infrastructure was occupied," he said. According to Mukhin, the detainees will be vigorously prosecuted. "It’s an explosive situation, and so our security officials and intelligence agencies will be handling it," he concluded.

Izvestia: Why Turkey’s Erdogan seeks escalation with West over Gaza

A massive pro-Palestinian rally held at Istanbul airport last weekend showed widespread support for Palestine within Turkey, with about 1.5 mln people taking part, according to official reports, giving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan an audience eager to hear his fiery speech demonstrating a willingness to raise tensions against Israel and the West, at least rhetorically.

The Turkish leader described the latest actions by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the Gaza Strip, where on October 27 the Israeli military launched a wider offensive against radical Palestinian group Hamas, as a massacre. He said that Israel was "an occupier and a [criminal] gang rather than a state." Erdogan laid the ultimate blame for the developments in the Palestinian enclave on the West, accusing it of hypocrisy, as he pointed to the sharp contrast in how European countries reacted to the situation in Ukraine and to similar events in Gaza. Against this backdrop, he cancelled his trip to Israel, although the itinerary had already been pre-arranged. And Tel Aviv moved to recall its diplomats from Turkey and expel the Turkish diplomatic mission to Israel in the wake of the Istanbul rally.

However, Erdogan is unlikely to take any specific steps, despite his heated rhetoric on Israel, said Boris Dolgov, lead researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Asian Studies. According to him, Erdogan is seeking to strengthen his position as an opinion leader in the Muslim world, which could potentially become a source of security for Palestine in the future. The expert does not expect Erdogan to escalate things radically in his relationship with the West, despite his rather tough, pointed criticism.

While Turkey is unlikely to make any radical changes in the current configuration of its foreign relations, Erdogan could still cause some pain for the West amid the ongoing developments in Palestine, Yelena Suponina, an expert in Asian and Islamic studies, told Izvestia. "I think this may affect such spheres as Turkey’s partnership with its NATO allies, including as regards Sweden’s membership bid," she surmised.

Vedomosti: Russian defense minister, Pentagon official both attend Beijing security forum

Delegations from more than 90 countries are attending the 10th Xiangshan Forum, running in Beijing on October 29-31. On the sidelines of the event, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu held talks with Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission. The commission is chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, the position of China’s top defense official has remained vacant since October 24, when Beijing dismissed General Li Shangfu as defense minister.

In his keynote speech, Zhang pledged efforts to enhance China’s strategic cooperation and coordination with Russia, while his rhetoric on the United States was somewhat ambiguous. In turn, addressing the forum, Shoigu said that the West may provoke a direct military confrontation between nuclear powers by continuing to supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. He also said Russia was set to continue military and defense cooperation with interested partners in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Xiangshan Forum is one of the largest regular international events hosted by China, and has now acquired an entirely different significance than previously given today’s realities, said Alexey Maslov, director of Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies, referring to the situation around Taiwan and the tougher defense rhetoric emanating from Beijing. Whereas purely technical military issues dominated discussions at the forum previously, this time around delegates are talking about defense cooperation on the sidelines, Maslov underscored. Moreover, the event is becoming more anti-American than Zhang’s muted rhetoric may imply, the expert highlighted.

Russia’s attendance at the event at the ministerial level appears rather symbolic to Maslov, as any escalation in the Asia-Pacific region would be extremely disadvantageous for Moscow. Meanwhile, also attending was a delegation of US military officials led by Cynthia Xanthi Carras, who as Country Director for China in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy at the US Department of Defense is the US military’s top China expert. The fact that Pentagon officials are visiting China for the first time since 2019 shows that Washington and Beijing are willing to revive military negotiations, including on the situation around Taiwan and the disputed territories in the South China Sea, he said. Resuming exchanges could play a key role in preventing a real confrontation between the two countries, Maslov added. If China and the US manage to reduce tensions around Taiwan, this would cause a shift in the entire layer of Sino-American relations, the expert concluded.

Izvestia: Oil prices seen potentially spiking to $100 per barrel amid Gaza war

A scenario with global crude benchmark Brent soaring above $100 per barrel next month is likely if the conflict between Palestine and Israel escalates further, more parties join in, or if oil deposits in the Middle East are attacked, Alexander Frolov, deputy head of the National Energy Institute, told Izvestia.

"Oil prices could reach $120 per barrel as early as November if Israel’s neighbors Syria, Lebanon or Egypt get embroiled in [Tel Aviv’s] conflict with Hamas. And if things escalate to Iran joining in, this would endanger oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz and cause a price increase to $150 per barrel," agrees Valery Andrianov, an expert at the InfoTEK think-tank. Such scenarios could occur if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launch a wide-scale operation to seize the Gaza Strip, he said.

On October 27, crude prices rose by as much as 3% within 15 minutes to top $90.50 per barrel amid Israel announcing the widening of its ground offensive, while Saudi officials told The New York Times that an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza would be catastrophic for the entire Middle East.

"Iran taking part in the conflict may cause the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt global oil supplies," Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the Reliable Partner association’s supervisory board, explained. "While exporters can more actively replenish their coffers amid rising oil prices, the scenario would take the heaviest economic toll on Western economies. The United States, for one, would especially hate to see an oil price hike or supply disruption ahead of the 2024 presidential election," Gusev emphasized.

Kommersant: Investors racing to buy platinum in anticipation of deficit

Platinum renewed its record high price as of late September, rising to $935 per troy ounce. This month, platinum prices have been racing to catch up with gold and silver, prices for which have been pushing higher amid the latest escalation in the Middle East. Also, the platinum price rise is being driven by politics, this time around in South Africa, one of the largest exporters of the metal, as well as positive forecasts for the automotive industry.

Experts see several reasons behind the latest platinum price rise. According to Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at asset management firm Alfa Capital, these include China stepping up economic stimulus, soaring prices for safe-haven metals amid the Middle East escalation, and the growing risk of a major conflict in Africa in the wake of the recent coup in Niger. With South Africa being the largest producer of platinum group metals, any disruption risks for the supply chain could cause price hikes.

According to analysts, limited platinum and palladium supplies from South Africa and Russia will spur price growth, with platinum rising at a faster pace amid the high demand from automakers. "Although the timing of a recovery in demand for platinum group metals remains uncertain, at a certain moment consumers will run out of stock so that interest in purchasing metals in the spot market will rise and market fundamentals may re-emerge," said senior analyst Dmitry Smolin at investment bank Sinara, which expects palladium prices to reach $1,250 per ounce, while platinum may rise to $1,000 per ounce by the year-end.

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