The tighter the "Avdeevka noose" around the Ukrainian grouping at Donetsk’s northwestern border, the louder Ukrainian politicians, warriors, propagandists and Western experts are in their hysteria. In these recent days, the Ukrainian propaganda machine has been stalling and vainly attempting to explain its own society and Western sponsors how did it happen that the final stage of the Ukrainian counteroffensive turned into a threat of losing a strategic city from where the Ukrainian army planned to attack the DPR capital?
Ukrainian military expert and volunteer Yuriy Butusov called the situation critical for Ukraine: "Things have deteriorated significantly north of Avdeevka. Russian storm troops are moving forward, posing a truly serious threat that requires utmost attention. If they succeed, Avdeevka’s southern, civilian part will be virtually surrounded." The Russian side has changed its tactics, which the Ukrainians did not expect. A statement to this effect came from Anton Kotsukon, press secretary of AFU’s 110th separate mechanized brigade, which was repelling Russian attacks for several days. He referred to the situation as alarming, saying that "the Russians are digging tunnels closer to our positions in order to unexpectedly reach our defense lines. They grasp for any chance to occupy Avdeevka and surround the Ukrainian units defending it. Therefore, our flanks have been sustaining the heaviest blows. Russian is preparing something horrible, carrying out daily assaults to cut off the roads leading to Avdeevka, or at least take them under fire control and completely surround the city. Our fighters are holding the ground in hellish conditions."
"In Avdeevka, the 59th AFU brigade, along with the 53rd and 110th ones, is holding back the offensive of Russian battalion task forces — the enemy has unfortunately begun to adapt. It copes with our drones with electronic warfare, hunts for our “wings” with a huge number of SAMs, uses small-group tactics and as few pieces of equipment as possible. There is a lot of big artillery, self-propelled Pion guns, Tyulpan heavy mortars, smart bombs and missiles. They have adapted. We do not underestimate the opponent and will try to think one step ahead. But they are not going to drop back," Vasil Sayenko, a 59th brigade soldier, reports on social media.
"The Russians have managed to move to the west by rail, and are now breaking through towards Stepnoye. They are also present next to the Avdeevka coke plant. New groups are coming in for assaults almost non-stop, as Russia has brought a fresh army there. Do not ask me if we can hold Avdeevka, no one knows that. Neither can we guarantee it anymore," Ukrainian soldier named Tor noted pessimistically. Their posts are getting increasingly doubtful about the ability to retain control over Avdeevka. Another soldier complains about the insane AFU losses outside the city in a video recorded to report on the heavy losses his and other units have been suffering in the area. The fighting is so intense that soldiers have no way of leaving the trenches for hours. They await evacuation but are not sure whether the command is in for this or not: "We do not know when it is going to take place after all, if any."
Former presidential office adviser Alexey Arestovich (listed as terrorist and extremist by Rosfinmonitoring) is sure Ukraine will lose Avdeevka: "The situation is tragic. All the military personnel know that Ukrainian troops have been transferred to Avdeevka from the southern front. This means goodbye to the southern offensive." He also hinted to the relevant trend by listing all the cities Ukraine lost.
Lots of intercepted SMS messages from Avdeevka feature Ukrainian complaints to their relatives about their dire plight, lack of painkillers and antibiotics. Because of this, the number of casualties from blood loss or septic fever is on the rise.
"Avdeevka is strategically vital as a springboard for AFU’s potential offensive towards Donetsk and Makeyevka. That country’s artillery can effectively shell key Donetsk areas, where arsenals and enemy troop locations are «mixed» with civilian buildings. The loss of Avdeevka would create a major defense line gap, with the next key defense hub being Pokrovsk some 40 km away from here. We hope our international allies are sympathetic to the situation and provide us with resources necessary to protect this critical front sector," a Ukrainian Telegram channel writes.
AFU Commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny is also pessimistic about the prospects, saying Ukraine has been trapped. In an interview with The Time magazine, he pointed to Russia’s superiority in ammunition, weapons, and personnel. "Its defense industry is increasing its output, despite unprecedented sanctions," he stated. The piece claims that Ukrainian generals are forced to sabotage Zelensky's orders. Back in early October, for example, he demanded an offensive operation against Gorlovka, but obtained a waiver. Ukrainian experts have recognized the article as devastating.
Poland’s Fakt, in turn, recently published an opinion by General Waldemar Skrzypczak, who analyzed the situation to conclude that the Ukrainian offensive which was expected to yield a breakthrough and victory, has become a thing of the past, with Russia recapturing the initiative. Outside Avdeevka, the Russian army has conducted a series of furious attacks and used unexpected tactics, which only marks the tip of the iceberg to Ukraine, Skrzypczak believes. "In my opinion, the Russians are getting ready for large-scale offensives in winter, when the ground freezes. Troops are already being pulled up from the depths of Russia, who have been training up to now." Gen. Skrzypczak is confident that the Russian army intends to reach the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk border from the north and the south to surround Ukraine’s troops in the Donbass. And now, "Avdeevka has become really challenging to the AFU, with its sizable grouping semi-surrounded there."
"Avdeevka district has been fortified since 2014, being well designed both in height and depth. The Ukrainian rear areas to the west of the city are less urbanized, which makes it more difficult to defend the terrain," French General Olivier Kempf noted in an interview with Le Figaro, summing up that Avdeevka liberation would unleash a large Russian force to be engaged in other key missions.
In order to hold positions and avert a mousetrap, the Ukrainian command has transferred to Avdeevka the Leopard-equipped 47th mechanized brigade from Zaporozhye. The Bild newspaper claimed this after analyzing the videos it obtained. Author Julian Repke, a German military expert, said his country initially provided Ukraine with these tanks to be used in the south. And now the 47th "Magura" brigade has been relocated from the Zaporozhye region to Donetsk. The first footage of its destroyed equipment was already revealed: an American Bradley, never seen in this area before, was struck a kilometer away from the Avdeevka coke plant. And fighters with the 100th DPR brigade, now the 114th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian armed force, have neutralized the much-praised Leopard tank with the very first anti-tank guided missile.
In general, the Ukrainian regime has been preparing to lose Avdeevka, as it has lost all the communications, with archives and utility equipment being taken out. City mayor Vitaly Barabash demands an immediate evacuation of local residents. "In a couple of days, there will be no one to service the generators or launch a cell phone tower. We therefore have to go," he said. However, people prefer to stay in their homes, waiting for liberation.
