An Islamic-Arab summit fails to agree on specific measures against Israel; Germany plans to double military aid to Ukraine in 2024; and Sweden could still join NATO by the end of the year. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Media: Islamic-Arab summit fails to agree on anti-Israel measures

The heads of Arab and Muslim countries strongly condemn Israel’s military operation in Gaza and demand that it be ended immediately, according to a resolution adopted at a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the League of Arab States (LAS). However, the parties failed to agree on harsh measures against Israel. Algeria’s initiative to impose sanctions on Israel was rejected after being opposed by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, Vedomosti notes.

Arab and Muslim countries never had any real intention of taking tough measures against Israel, Andrey Zeltyn, senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics’ School of Asian Studies, noted. They did not want to declare war on Israel, and an economic blockade would have made no sense. It’s unclear who could have imposed this blockade on the Israelis or whether this was even possible, considering that many countries in the region are allied with the United States. What is happening in the Middle East shows that after years of efforts to normalize relations with Israel, no one expected such an escalation of tensions, the expert went on to say. The summit confirmed that the Hamas movement had succeeded in bringing the Palestine issue back to the top of the Middle East agenda.

The summit’s participants had no plans to announce any specific military or political steps against Israel, Boris Dolgov, a leading researcher with the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, agreed. Algeria’s initiative to impose a blockade on Israel never had a chance because the OIC and LAS don’t have sufficient leverage to implement it.

Still, the summit’s resolution turned out to be very anti-Israel, Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semenov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The document called for halting weapons exports to the Israelis, urged the UN Security Council to put an end to the military activities, the International Criminal Court to investigate Israel’s war crimes and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to look into the Israeli military's use of banned weapons. "The Muslim world has a consolidated position on the conflict, one in favor of Palestine," the analyst pointed out.

 Vedomosti: Germany to double military aid to Ukraine in 2024

Germany’s ruling coalition has approved an initiative that will double aid to Ukraine to eight bln euros in 2024, Vedomosti writes, citing Western media reports.

Germany has been the main contributor of military assistance to Ukraine among European countries. In global terms, only the United States has given more. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Berlin provided Kiev with 17 bln euros worth of military aid between January 2022 and July 2023.

Germany’s move to increase assistance to Ukraine is most likely related to rumors that Western aid to Kiev could decline due both to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the moderate results the Ukrainian army has achieved in its counteroffensive, Artyom Sokolov, a researcher with the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), pointed out. Meanwhile, the West cannot openly reduce assistance to Ukraine, which is why it is putting forward various initiatives aimed at making it seem to outside observers that support continues and is even growing in some aspects. Berlin’s decision to double military aid to Ukraine is an example of that," the expert said.

Besides, the measure positions Berlin as one of Washington’s most reliable allies in Europe, including in terms of boosting military spending to two percent of GDP. That said, the ruling German coalition is killing several birds with one stone, Sokolov concluded.

Berlin made the decision largely because the Americans are gradually reducing military aid to Ukraine, redirecting their resources to the Middle East, said Alexander Kamkin, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Accordingly, by taking on such an obligation, Germany - the United States’ closest ally in Europe - will be able to partially make up the difference, the expert added.

Izvestia: Will Sweden join NATO by year’s end?

Sweden’s bid to join NATO has stalled. A Hungarian parliament spokesperson told Izvestia that the issue had not even been put on the legislature’s agenda yet. The situation is similar in Turkey, even though the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed a related protocol in late October. Experts don’t rule out that Budapest and Ankara could be playing politics.

The conflicting messages that Turkey and Hungary are sending give reason to suggest that Ankara and Budapest are are trying to curry certain advantages. Moreover, Valdai Club Program Director Oleg Barabanov points out that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict only adds to Turkey’s position. "Erdogan is taking an increasingly hard line siding with Palestine. His initial accusations of Sweden supporting Middle Eastern terrorists may come to the forefront once again," the analyst stressed.

Another reason why Turkey and Hungary have taken such an approach to Sweden’s accession to NATO lies in the two countries’ political traditions, which put national interests above collective ones, said Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. "When it comes to national interests, any issue can be used as a bargaining chip. In this case, the situation suits both the Hungarians and the Turks, as well as the Swedes," the expert noted. According to Ofitserov-Belsky, this is because in fact, the Swedish government has no great desire to join the alliance, but it cannot resist pressure from the United States and other NATO allies. "The Swedes have their own defense industry and are not keen on caving in to the Americans," he added.

All these factors combined make it difficult to predict what will happen with Sweden’s NATO bid. There is still a chance that it will be approved before the end of the year, but the issue may well leak into next year, experts say.

 Vedomosti: Oil prices predicted to rise to $120

The average price of oil may reach $120 per barrel in 2024 as a result of a disruption in supply from the Middle East caused by the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian movement Hamas, Vedomosti writes, citing a Fitch forecast.

The conflict between Israel and Hamas, which broke out on October 7, led to a sharp increase in oil prices. In a forecast published right after the start of military activities, Goldman Sachs said that Brent crude prices would hit $100 per barrel by June 2024.

Ronald Smith, a senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, says that Brent prices could potentially touch the $120 mark, but this is unlikely. He expects average oil prices to remain at $85 per barrel in 2024.

Meanwhile, after the oil market saw that the risk of Middle Eastern oil producing countries getting involved in the conflict was low, oil prices started to decline, Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund, noted. Besides, oil prices are being impacted by expectations of a global recession, which will reduce the economy’s oil demand, he added. According to the analyst, next year, the pace of economic development will remain at the 2023 level as the GDPs of China and India will continue to grow, while the EU will remain stagnant and the United States will do only slightly better. Given the output cut by the OPEC+ countries, oil prices will stay high but they are not expected to exceed $95 per barrel, Yushkov said.

OPEC+ will remain a major player on the oil market, which will reduce the odds of significant price fluctuations. If oil prices do indeed rise to the $120 per barrel level, OPEC+ can be expected to announce an increase in production in relatively short order, bringing prices back to $100 per barrel, Smith explained.

 Kommersant: Bitcoin hits new annual high

Bitcoin hit a new annual high of $37,900 last week, only slightly declining over the weekend. However, experts interviewed by Kommersant warn that because cryptocurrencies are not backed by any real assets, it is often the case that a rise in their prices is followed by a sharp drop.

Bitbanker CEO Sergey Gorshunov explained that BlackRock’s move to register an Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) turned out to be the biggest factor impacting cryptocurrency prices. According to him, "it is assumed that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve the spot bitcoin ETF."

Investor demand is also contributing to the sharp rise in the prices of key cryptocurrencies, independent financial analyst Andrey Barkhota said. "We can see the influence of Moody’s decision to change the US ratings outlook amid the start of an electoral cycle full of uncertainty. In particular, the defense industry’s increased capacity utilization is positively impacting gross output and the labor market, while the financial sector is suffering; besides, tensions with China still exist. As a result, the US currency and treasury bonds no longer look like risk-free financial instruments," the expert explained.

The current wave of demand for cryptocurrencies is also rooted in the worsening conflict in the Middle East, Barkhota added, pointing to Iran and Lebanon escalating the situation by potentially opening multiple fronts against Israel.

BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov believes that bitcoin prices may reach as high as $42,000 to $45,000 by the end of the year. This is a real possibility if the SEC announces "positive news" about the ETF. InDeFi Smart Bank head Sergey Mendeleyev does not even rule out that bitcoin will surpass $100,000.

However, Barkhota emphasizes that there are no hard assets behind cryptocurrencies. "A rise in their prices means that a decline will inevitably follow, which can come faster than expected," he said.

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