US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to hold bilateral discussions at the APEC Summit, the war in Gaza becomes a stress test for the nonproliferation regime, and the OSCE prepares for an assembly that might determine the organization's survival. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Izvestia: Biden, Xi to meet for first time in a year at APEC summit
The meeting between Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has not visited the United States since 2017, will be the keystone event of the APEC economic conference beginning on November 14. Although it is unlikely that the parties will be able to normalize relations following the cooling that began under Donald Trump, experts believe that the US and China can develop a "mechanism for managing confrontation" that will either determine the future model of interaction throughout the Asia-Pacific region or lead to a split within the community, Izvestia writes.
This year's summit takes place against the backdrop of not one, but two global crises - in addition to the Ukrainian crisis, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has deteriorated. As a result, analysts think that politics, not economic concerns, will dominate the agenda at the 2023 summit events.
The current APEC meeting is taking place in a completely new global reality, a far cry from the atmosphere that existed when APEC was founded several decades ago, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexander Lomanov said in an interview with Izvestia.
"Of course, the main focus will be on whether Biden and Xi can reach an agreement on anything. Because conversing does not mean agreeing. The main question is whether these talks will produce at least something that will persuade other Asian and global economies that the US and China are ready to halt the constant escalation of bilateral, economic, military, and political tensions," he said.
"If it turns out that the conversation between the two leaders does not lead to anything and the escalation continues, then APEC might even possibly split," the expert told Izvestia.
The United States' ambitions to launch a new Indo-Pacific Economic Forum (IPEF) are also important. In fact, Lomanov noted, this US-centric economic bloc signals a shift from globalization to a new model of establishing blocs that are easier to control. In this case, he believes, the United States and China will engage in a new round of conflict.
Izvestia: At what point will the EU start saving on Ukraine?
The European Union will continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine until a large group of countries within the EU emerges to advocate reducing funding for Kiev, according to analysts interviewed by Izvestia. At this point, only Hungary and Slovakia have withdrawn their support, but the number of such countries may grow in the future. Options for additional assistance to Ukraine were discussed at the meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels on November 13. Earlier, speculation arose that the organization would most likely not be able to fulfill its obligations to supply the Ukrainian armed forces with one million artillery shells.
Despite the lack of funds and ammunition, the European Union will continue to send assistance to Ukraine, including military aid, Head of the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladislav Belov, told the newspaper.
"It is expected that in addition to the planned money, which will be difficult to agree on due to Hungary's position, the EU aid will be supplemented by individual member states. Germany, for example, intends to increase its aid from 4 bln euro to 8 bln euro," he said.
"The US and the EU look at Ukraine only as a geopolitical tool. They are more interested in aggravating the situation than in resolving it. Any arms deliveries to Ukraine mean prolonging the struggle," the expert believes.
According to German political scientist Alexander Rahr, the European Union is trying to convince Europeans that Kiev needs help even amid domestic and international problems. Despite the fact that the European Union is finding it increasingly difficult to collect funds, the elites will continue to do so - the situation will change only when a large coalition of countries comes together and says no to more aid for Ukraine, the expert believes.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Middle Eastern countries urge Israel to give up its nuclear arsenal
Middle Eastern countries are drawing up plans to hold a global disarmament summit, as regional powers were concerned following remarks from Israel's Minister of Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage, Amihai Eliyahu, about a potential nuclear assault on the Gaza Strip in the current conflict. The minister's comments broke the secrecy around the Jewish state's nuclear program and opened up Benjamin Netanyahu's government to fresh criticism, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Although Eliyahu is not a member of the military-political cabinet, his statements have undermined the status quo of secrecy. For decades, the Jewish state neither denied nor confirmed the existence of its nuclear weapons. That's why Palestinian officials latched onto the minister's threat. Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki addressed a special statement to Director General Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stating that public declarations made by individual ministers constitute official recognition that Israel has nuclear weapons. This, he claimed, necessitated an international probe.
"Talk about the need to denuclearize the region regularly arises during various aggravations, and the fact it has reared its head against the backdrop of the current conflict is not surprising," senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Yuri Lyamin told the newspaper.
"Even if the minister who announced the use of nuclear weapons is not the most influential, he is still a minister, a high-ranking person. In an atmosphere where Israel maintains the strictest secrecy about its nuclear program and it is not known under what conditions it is ready to use nuclear weapons, such a declaration was bound to provoke a harsh reaction from many sides," he said.
Kommersant: OSCE prepares for meeting that could determine organization's fate
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the world's largest regional organization, is facing its toughest test yet. In the next three weeks, its 57 member countries will have to try to resolve several serious disagreements simultaneously, all of which are in some way related to the dispute between Russia and the West. The very existence of the OSCE is at risk if the conflicts are not resolved, Kommersant writes. The Russian Foreign Ministry told the newspaper that "its future is up in the air."
Decisions in the OSCE are made by consensus. This means that the chairman must be elected unanimously by 56 countries. According to European media sources, Malta or Austria could run for the chairmanship. Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Kommersant: "As for Russia's readiness to support Austria or Malta's candidacy for the OSCE Chairmanship in 2024, neither of them has officially thrown their hat in the ring for the post of the current OSCE Chairmanship in 2024. We will be ready to consider such a nomination when and if it is made.
If no solution is found, the OSCE will be without a chair for the first time in its existence. Meanwhile, the situation is already extremely complicated - the Organization has been working without an agreed budget for more than a year, and Western participants are trying to implement programs (including in Ukraine) on an extra-budgetary basis, bypassing Russia, which they accuse of obstructing the unification mechanisms, Kommersant writes.
Kommersant asked the Russian Foreign Ministry if Sergey Lavrov would be able to attend the upcoming OSCE meeting and how Russia would react if he was denied entry again. "Preparations for the Ministerial Council in Skopje are proceeding as usual. We have done everything necessary so that Russian delegates can participate. It is the responsibility of the organizers to ensure that all delegations have the opportunity to participate at the appropriate level," the ministry said.
Asked whether there is still "added value" for Russia in participating in the OSCE today, the Russian Foreign Ministry said: "When we talk about our attitude to the OSCE, we point out that the Organization is in a deep crisis. Its future is up in the air."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Damage to Russia’s economy from thawing permafrost may exceed $4 bln
Lobbyists promoting the green agenda of the World Economic Forum (WEF) have recognized the failure of the Paris Agreement and the inability to achieve its climate goals, as greenhouse gas emissions are increasing rather than decreasing, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Experts believe that even if the world economy slows down even more than during the pandemic, it will be difficult to stop global warming and the growth of carbon emissions.
A number of Russian scientists believe that the goals of the Paris climate agreement should be changed. Aiming for costly carbon neutrality would jeopardize economic progress and hinder growth. It is crucial to adapt to climate change in a timely manner, Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Energy Research Sergey Filippov told the newspaper.
Russia's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 is unreasonable, according to Alexander Shirov, Director of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting at the Russian Academy of Sciences. According to his estimates, achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 will result in total losses of 458 trillion rubles ($5.01 trillion) due to reduced consumption. He noted that Russia's transition to a carbon-neutral economy by 2060 appears unlikely due to severe constraints.
The biggest problems for Russia are related to the threat of thawing permafrost. "According to Russian scientists, the potential economic damage from thawing permafrost at the current level of development in Russia over the next 30 years will amount to more than 422 bln rubles," Senior Vice President of Sberbank for ESG Tatyana Zavyalova said, noting that 65% of the country's industrial infrastructure is located in permafrost areas.
According to Alexander Krutikov, Russia's Deputy Minister for the development of the Far East and the Arctic at the time, annual losses from melting permafrost range from 50 bln rubles to 150 bln rubles ($546.44 mln - $1.64 bln). The Ministry of Natural Resources later estimated that permafrost melting had already warped 40% of the infrastructure in Russia's Far North.
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