The United Nations is unlikely to recognize Israel’s war crimes; the EU seems unable to provide Ukraine with one mln munitions by March 2024; and the US is seeking to fuel a conflict in Myanmar to put pressure on China. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according  to TASS news agency.

 Izvestia: UN will not recognize Israel’s war crimes

The United Nations will not recognize Israel as having committed war crimes because the US will block any such initiatives in the UN Security Council. However, analysts say that Arab and Muslim countries may try to push for a resolution condemning Israel at the UN General Assembly level, which will have consequences for the country, Izvestia writes.

There will be no recognition at the UN level that Israel has committed war crimes, Russian First Deputy Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky told the newspaper. "It cannot be done without the Security Council and the Americans veto everything there," the diplomat said.

The White House will neither condemn its ally nor let the UN declare Israel as being guilty of war crimes, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, pointed out. "No US president would dare do this because of the nature of their domestic policy, to which Israel is intricately tied. Recognizing its war crimes would mean guaranteed impeachment for [US President Joe] Biden from the Republicans who control the House of Representatives in the US Congress," he explained. "It won’t do anything for Biden’s overall support, while his approval rating is already on the decline. In general, there is a consensus in the US about Israel being the country’s closest and most reliable ally in the Middle East," the expert pointed out. That said, the US will continue talking with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but it has no intention of taking any tough measures, Suslov said.

Meanwhile, Sergey Ordzhonikidze, former UN under secretary general and ex-Russian deputy foreign minister, believes that the United Nations could recognize Israel’s war crimes in the General Assembly. "Much will depend on Arab and Muslim nations. In particular, they could convene a special General Assembly session and put forward a resolution on the matter. They have a majority of the votes and I think that many countries of the Global South will support them," he said.

 Vedomosti: EU unable to provide Ukraine with one mln munitions by March

The European Union will not be able to send one mln NATO-standard 155 mm munitions to Ukraine by March 2024, Vedomosti writes, citing a statement German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius made on November 14.

The delay in EU ammunition supplies comes as no surprise, Financial University expert Denis Denisov said. People in the West have no idea where their governments are investing resources and time, leading them to oppose military aid to Kiev, and sometimes financial assistance as well. The outcome of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has also turned out to be negative for the country as Kiev "overheated expectations" from its actions. However, it wouldn’t be right to think that the population’s fatigue will make countries end their support for Ukraine. According to the expert, Ukraine remains the most important element in the geopolitical standoff between Washington and Moscow so the West will always find it beneficial to make Russia divert its resources to dealing with what is going on along its borders.

The fact that Ukraine has received less than promised does not indicate that the West’s support for Kiev is fading, Vladislav Belov, deputy director of the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out. Ukraine supplies are hindered by the German defense industry’s inability to fulfill such a big order. Had the situation been better for the industry, Germany would have easily agreed to provide however many munitions to Ukraine, the expert said. Another thing to keep in mind is that the German defense chief himself supports continued assistance to Ukraine, pushing for doubling it to eight bln euros in 2024.

The production of Western-standard ammunition has risen less than expected since the start of Russia’s special military operation. The reasons why include uncertainty about long-term funding guarantees and rapidly rising ammunition prices caused by the expansion of production capacities and the need to cover the related costs, a source in the Russian defense ministry said. However, Russia needs to proceed from the premise that ammunition production will grow and adapt to these conditions, he added.

Izvestia: US seeking to fuel conflict in Myanmar

Washington is using new levers of influence to put pressure on Beijing ahead of a US-Chinese summit on the sidelines of an APEC event in San Francisco. The Americans are exacerbating the conflict in Myanmar, one of China’s key trade partners in the region, by supporting the opposition in its fight against the country’s military government. Armed rebel units have already taken control of several towns in northeastern Myanmar, blocking important trade routes with China, Izvestia writes.

"Myanmar is important for China because of its role in the implementation of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative. The Chinese are building a transport corridor to the deep-water port of Kyaukpyu, which is supposed to pass through Myanmar, while the oil and gas pipelines that were constructed there in 2013-2017 have strategic importance for China," Kirill Kotkov, head of the St. Petersburg-based Center for Far Eastern Studies, explained.

Washington is taking advantage of the conflict in Myanmar to sow instability around China. Notably, all this is taking place shortly before a meeting between President Xi Jinping of China and President Joe Biden of the United States, set to be held on the sidelines of an APEC summit in San Francisco. Experts believe that along with Taiwan, the Myanmar issue will definitely be used as a lever of pressure on Beijing.

Meanwhile, according to experts, the army remains the only force keeping Myanmar from plunging into chaos. "The army’s destruction will in fact mean the collapse of Myanmar’s statehood. This could undermine stability and relative prosperity across the entire Southeast Asian Region," said Dmitry Mosyakov, head of the Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Oriental Studies.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, has the best chance of resolving the issue. Besides, the advantage remains on the side of the country’s armed forces, so there is a good chance that the central government will win back control of the towns seized by the rebels.

Vedomosti: Diamond producing countries refuse to support ban on Russian supplies

The European Union’s plans to impose sanctions on Russian diamond exports have led to a split in the Kimberley Process uniting diamond producing and importing countries. For the first time ever, its member states failed to agree on a final communique following Zimbabwe’s chairmanship, Vedomosti notes.

The move to impose sanctions on Russian diamonds could disrupt global supply chains, Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy director at the Finam investment company, said. Boris Krasnozhyonov, head of security market analysis at Alfa-Bank, added that the measures proposed by Western countries would not only mean higher costs for end users of rough and polished diamonds but would also "disrupt the regular supply of raw materials." Still, "it will take years" to implement these measures.

Kabakov does not rule out that the sanctions will have some impact on Russia’s diamond industry. Dmitry Kazakov, senior analyst at BCS World of Investment, believes the restrictions will affect only the export of the largest gemstones by Alrosa, Russia’s largest diamond producer. However, the sanctions will have no impact on the mass market because it will cost too much to monitor. The analyst points out that the main question is whether the sanctions will be effective. In this regard, he pointed to the general ineffectiveness of restrictions against Russian oil exports.

Krasnozhyonov added that it’s difficult to cut Russia off from the global rough diamond trade because the country accounts for about 35% of global diamond production and 40% of the world’s reserves. Meanwhile, diamond consumption in developing markets is at least one-third higher than Russia’s production, he added.

Analysts don’t expect the sanctions to spell doom for the market. According to Kabakov, the introduction of these restrictions will lead to a slight rise in prices.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russia-OPEC alliance to maintain influence on market

Brazilian Energy Minister Bento Alburquerque has stated that joining OPEC or OPEC+ would run counter to the country’s goal to boost oil production and expand its presence on the global market. Meanwhile, there are increasing forecasts of OPEC and OPEC+ losing their influence on the market due to rising production in non-member states. However, experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta don’t share this view.

Oil output growth in the countries that aren’t OPEC members cannot fully cover the growing demand, Valery Andrianov, an expert at the Infotek think tank, said. OPEC+ nations will retain their role as the actual market regulator, he noted.

OPEC+ has taken on the entire burden of efforts to balance the oil market by reducing oil production and exports, while non-member states benefit the most from it, increasing oil output and exports, Konstantin Simonov, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, pointed out.

As long as the OPEC+ platform exists, its members have plenty of opportunity to influence the market, both politically and economically. Many of the group’s members are capable of increasing production, with Russia and Saudi Arabia able to do it fast. According to Andrianov, the Moscow-Riyadh alliance is the foundation of the OPEC+ deal. The two countries are on the same page here: in 2023, Saudi Arabia removed more oil from the market than Russia but in 2024, Russia will take the lead in this regard. Cutting oil production is definitely not the most pleasant thing to do but first, it will make it possible to support prices in the presence of adverse factors, including production growth outside OPEC, and second, it will strengthen Russia’s role within OPEC+. Today, it’s not beneficial for Riyadh to engage in a price war with Moscow the way it tried to do in 2020 at the US instigation, the expert noted.

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