Israel and Hamas agree on a temporary truce that goes into effect today; how worried should Russia be about the latest NATO drills in the Baltics; and Russia’s Putin addresses the G20 summit for the first time in two years. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Vedomosti: Israel-Hamas truce deal explained
At 10:00 a.m. local time (08:00 a.m. GMT) on November 23, a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian radical movement Hamas will begin in the Gaza Strip. The deal will allow 50 women and children out of the 239 Israeli hostages to be released, in exchange for 150 Palestinian teenagers and women held in Israeli prisons, as well as humanitarian aid supplies. The exact time of the truce was announced on Wednesday by Abu Marzook, a senior Hamas official. The hostage agreement, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the "right decision," was mediated by Qatar and Egypt.
The truce is likely to be a temporary pause for humanitarian purposes, as Israel is not currently seeking a total ceasefire and has already announced its intention to continue the war until its goals are achieved, Lyudmila Samasrkaya, a researcher with the Center for Middle East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes. And the stated aim of eliminating Hamas and the security threat emanating from Gaza may take a long time to achieve. "What is unprecedented here is the number of hostages," said Samarskaya.
This truce has no prospects for becoming something more, say, paving the way for a resolution, agrees Dmitry Maryasis, the leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Oriental Studies. This affair will hardly result in more radical agreements, nor can the coming ceasefire be viewed as a "diplomatic breakthrough," the expert argues, as it was clear from day one that both parties would find a way to conduct a hostage swap someday.
According to Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semyonov, the Netanyahu government would not benefit from expanding the local truce for internal reasons. As the war put the domestic political crisis in Israel on ice, the public may once again question how the Hamas attack on October 7 became possible, should the military operation be suspended, while a longer truce would trigger a probe into those events and could cost Netanyahu his post, Semyonov said. "So, there is no incentive for the incumbent Israeli government to halt the fighting for an extended period. This truce and any new potential ceasefires will be used to prolong the war," the expert insists.
Izvestia: Latest NATO drills in Baltics real threat to Russia
Participants in NATO’S Freezing Winds 23 exercise may simulate the seizure of the Russian islands of Gogland, Bolshoi Tyuters and Moshchny and the ensuing siege of the Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad Region, experts argue. A powerful group of more than 5,000 troops, 30 warships and 20 aircraft approached Russia’s northwestern borders as the active stage of the maneuvers, being led for the first time by Finland, the alliance’s newest member, was launched on November 22. Officially, the declared scenario does not conceal the offensive nature of the drills as the alliance’s military will practice mining and marine landing in the Baltic Sea.
Although, experts say, the bloc holds such drills in the Baltic Sea region every year, this year, the exercise is clearly aggressive in nature. Given hundreds of the EU and NATO’s energy and communication networks run under the Baltic Sea, the interest of the alliance’s military in monitoring the surface and undersea situation in the region is absolutely clear in the wake of the recent sabotage on the Balticconnector and Nord Stream gas pipelines.
"All naval powers in the region, including Russia, have subversive underwater capabilities and means capable of destroying critical infrastructure on the Baltic Sea bottom in the shortest possible time at their disposal, with Russia’s submarine forces in the region being manyfold superior to similar NATO forces in quality and quantity," a Russian Defense Ministry official told Izvestia.
Former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ordzhonikidze does not rule out that, in the event of a conflict, Finland may claim a number of Russian areas, firstly, a sector in Karelia. "Secondly, the Russian islands in the Baltic Sea may be claimed [by Finland]. In general, the exercise is aimed at continuing to exert pressure on Russia from the north in an effort to block our Baltic fleet, while hampering commercial shipping as much as possible," Ordzhonikidze said. According to him, Finland joined NATO in order to create a bloc to counter Russia in the north, which is a real threat to Russia’s interests there.
Experts say that, in the event of a potential conflict with Russia, the siege of Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave would be one of NATO’s goals. "The threat of potentially blocking the Gulf of Finland should definitely be taken into account, for it is impossible to block the Gulf of Finland without taking Gogland and [Bolshoi] Tyuters under control, as the Great Patriotic War [WWII] showed. And Finland’s accession to NATO makes this threat quite real," Ilya Kramnik, research fellow with the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO Institute), told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Russia's Putin addresses G20 summit for first time in two years
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the virtual G20 summit as he addressed the event for the first time since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine. The Russian leader skipped the previous G20 summit, which was held in person in New Delhi in September, while the latest meeting was designed to sum up India’s G20 presidency.
Thanks to India’s stance, discussions of the declaration adopted at the 18th G20 summit in New Delhi did not feature statements condemning Russia’s actions in the Ukraine conflict, unlike the 2022 G20 summit in Bali. Although, it was stated that "the majority of countries condemned [the hostilities]," Russia was not criticized or even mentioned.
According to Timofey Bordachev, scientific director of the Center for International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), the fact that India set its own G20 agenda and stuck to it played into Russia’s hands, as well. New Delhi’s agenda is to prevent the Group of Twenty from delving into geopolitics or military conflicts and adhering to efforts to solve global economic or social issues, the expert explained.
This is exactly the position that Russia has held since the onset of the Ukrainian conflict, too. This, Bordachev said, made it possible to keep the spotlight off the Ukrainian issue at the G20 discussions - the issue faded into the background. "Therefore, India won a diplomatic victory, and India’s victory turned into Russia’s victory, too," the expert maintained. The international landscape having stabilized around Russia owing to the latest pivot to the Global South prompted the Russian leader’s resolve to participate more in international events, he added.
On November 21, Putin took part in an extraordinary BRICS in-person summit. Prior to that, in August, the Russian president addressed the BRICS summit in South Africa via video link. Moscow’s course toward continued participation in international gatherings, despite Western attempts to isolate the country, turned out to be prudent, Bordachev said, as he referred to the presence of Russia’s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov at the New Delhi summit in September and Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk attending the APEC summit in San Francisco earlier this month.
Izvestia: Russian artillery to be rearmed with Tornado-S MLRS
The Uragan multiple rocket launchers currently in service with the Russian army will gradually be replaced with higher-precision Tornado-S systems, in line with a decision made by the Russian Defense Ministry based on the results of the special military operation, sources told Izvestia. The latest systems will go into service with artillery and rocket brigades of military districts and troops, while they may replenish the artillery regiments of motorized rifle and tank divisions further down the road. The Tornado-S can destroy the enemy with high-precision strikes at a distance of up to 120 km. Experts say that the mass use of this MLRS will enable Russian crews to hit targets behind enemy lines more often.
The Tornado-S 300mm MLRS is designed to strike enemy manpower as well as unarmored, lightly armored or armored vehicles at longer distances. The Tornado-S has been used extensively in the special military op.
"This represents a significant qualitative leap," military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia. "The Uragan with its 220mm projectiles and 35-km firing range dates back to the 1980s, while the latest Tornado-S 330mm system has more powerful ammunition and a longer range, up to 120 km," he said. According to the expert, the arrival of the Tornado-S has put Russian MLRS on a par with the world’s best models, and it can rival the HIMARS, too.
In addition, the Tornado-S will use a wider range of ammo than the Uragan, including more powerful cluster munitions, Kornev explained. "This will make it possible to pound surface targets or lightly armored vehicles with better strikes," he said. The Russian system will be able to use only one high-precision cluster rocket in its hunt for the HIMARS, he added.
Another military expert, Viktor Murakhovsky, told Izvestia that the Tornado-S should complement the use of the Iskander tactical missile system. While Iskander missiles have a longer range and can be used for vertical attacks, the Tornado-S would accomplish other goals, he said, as its projectiles can detect targets with the use of the GLONASS satellite navigation system or target coordinates. Besides, they are equipped with high-explosive fragmentation or cluster munitions, he concluded.
Kommersant: Steel production up 5.3% in Russia in January-October
In October, Russian crude steel production rose by 9.5% year-on-year to 6.3 mln metric tons, according to the latest report by the World Steel Association (WSA). In January-October, Russia saw a 5.3% increase in steel production, the biggest growth among the world’s largest steel producers after India, which produced 116.3 mln metric tons of steel in the first nine months of 2023, up 12.1% against the same period from last year. China, which accounts for more than half of global steel production, saw a 1.4% increase in January-October.
Russian steelmakers are supported by a growing domestic market, as consumption in the spheres of construction and mechanical engineering is rising. The Central Bank hiking rates is a negative factor that may cause a slowdown in construction activity and reduce demand for metal in the industry, experts warn.
Viktor Yevtukhov, Russian Deputy Industry and Trade Minister, has said that, historically, steel exports accounted for some 40% to 45% in the steelmaking sector. The share has now dropped to some 30-35%, including due to a substantial increase in domestic consumption and a decline in imports, he explained, noting that Russia has lately been exporting more steel to Africa, South America and the Middle East.
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