Following Poland’s general election of October 15, its Parliament went active on November 13, with its virtually key task being to form a new government comprising members of the winner parties.

Here's the deal: a new majority of 248 opposition deputies has emerged in the 460-seat Sejm. And the ex-ruling Law and Justice Party (pol. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS) took 194 mandates and has a vague prospect of creating its own coalition with someone.

Days go by, but the government has not been appointed yet. Moreover, President Duda (PiS) intends to offer to the Parliament the candidacy of old-new Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS) and his team, though most parliamentary seats went to opposition parties led by former PM Donald Tusk, Duda’s outspoken opponent. Therefore, Duda needs to get his own people into the government via a parliamentary vote, even if it is a "minority government", rather than to yield the country’s executive power to his bitter rival — behind Tusk there are three parties that have created an oppositional coalition expecting to form a cabinet of its own. But that’s hardly feasible without approval of the president. What we observe is a constitutional impasse, a political deadlock, a dead-end for the Polish society split into two comparable parts as regards their fondness for local politicians.

In a historical perspective, it's no stretch to say that Poland has approached a new "partition", which is all but national "political sports" there. And why be surprised if remote Argentina has the same example — "default". It has experienced seven of those in the twentieth century alone and nine over the state’s entire history, but is still going strong. Poland is now suffering a "partition from within".

The country has really split into two political blocs by geographical principal: the first one is represented by President Andrzej Duda’s Law and Justice Party, relying on supporters from East Poland, which used to be part of the Russian Empire, by the way. Another bloc is the opposition led by Donald (almost Trump) Tusk with a lot of support in the Western territories, which the Soviet Union let Poland take from Germany after World War II. Back then, the victorious powers forced defeated Berlin to cede Silesia, East Prussia and Pomerania to Warsaw, with the decision to that effect taken at the Yalta and Potsdam Conferences.

 Yes, looking at the map of Poland, you can see sympathizers of the two political forces go their separate geographical ways.

The latest parliamentary election caused the long-ruling Law and Justice party to lose its constitutional majority, yielding it to the union of three opposition forces that have now obtained the lion's share of parliamentary seats — Civic Platform, Third Way and the New Left. The opposition has signed an agreement providing for the formation of a new coalition government. However, President Duda and his party loathe to part with unrestricted president + government power. And the latter does also enjoy support with almost half of the country's eastern population with conservative political views and a heavy "charge of Euroscepticism". Meanwhile, voters from the western part sincerely seek "European happiness" being in tune for a "pro-European" policy of aligning with Brussels, where Tusk himself once held the post of European Council president, by the way. This is genetics: a pure split, with no scheming by neighbors this time…

So, the process of appointing a new government has dragged on for a couple of weeks. Duda is pushing forward Team Morawiecki, which the opposition naturally blocks thanks to its parliamentary majority. Horse-trading between the two irreconcilable rivals is highly improbable, which means that a new election will be looming if the government composition is not approved within 28 days starting November 13. Mr. Morawiecki and Mr. Duda will stick to their posts waiting for another chance to get enough seats and keep reigning.

Moreover, Duda’s PiS party has announced itself election winner by a majority of vote, declaring its "right to form a government", and nominating Morawiecki for Prime Minister. Still, even this circumstance is not going to let PiS get a vast parliamentary majority, with more seats taken by the united opposition.

Polish observers refuse to even contemplate options of "bargaining" or "backstage deal" between Tusk and Duda. "Haggling is out of place here!" as The Twelve Chairs’ comrade Bender put it. Thus, the situation will first get hung up, then turn sour, and finally produce a constitutional crisis, forcing everyone to go for another vote. Therefore, one should not be perplexed by new Sejm speaker Szymon Hołownia’s statement about the need to get some popcorn ready while awaiting the government to be formed. Popcorn producers seem to have started preparing for a boom…

Notably, Polish democracy has deep historical roots, along with regular manifestations of opposing views on life and power. And there is no need to be ironic about this, because my Polish friends have persistently explained that their country truly believes in being "the first democracy in Europe where the szlachta was able to elect or expel the king." And these "democratic rules of power formation" caused abhorrence with the surrounding countries — Russia, Austria-Hungary and Prussia. With their democracy irritating the neighboring monarchies, the poor Poles caught hell a whopping three times.

 Even so, the split passion seems to have gained political currency, with political guidelines so much spread that the election geography has suddenly come to feature borders of the earlier Polish partition, including the western lands annexed after the war. Guess whom this election has backfired on. Germany!

The press reports as follows: "Germany’s recent Orange Road 2023-II military exercises induced no wide discussion in the neighboring countries, but may have inflicted shiver with unpleasant forebodings among the local politicians. Maneuvers meant to practice ‘the study and operation of the traffic control system, and treatment of prisoners of war’ (as Bundeswehr’s website reads), are primary interesting for their intended geography. The events unfold in the fictional Vistula region (next to Poland’s Vistula River?) of the non-existent Altraverdo state. You don't need to have your hand read to recognize a hint at Poland, or rather its territories that used to be part of the Third Reich. Riots in the invented area demand "broad autonomy" require, and the German military come to the rescue. Commentators, most of whom are Polish bloggers, saw here Berlin's desire to regain control of Upper Silesia, which once belonged to the German Empire..." Back prior to the German attack on September 1, 1939, the Poles themselves dreamt about capturing Berlin. What a perfect fellowship!

And what about today? Poland’s latest "democracy wingover" has sharply weakened interest in supporting the Kiev regime, which is visible and truly important to us. Tusk and Duda, both nervously glancing at the western border with Germany, will keep finding out who is the one in charge, including in a possible repeat election. And, therefore, they have to turn inwards, putting the idea of marching on Lvov temporarily aside. What kind of Drang nach Osten can there be with such a conflict-filled rear and the quietly smoldering western border?!

...Why don't we go and get some popcorn, too?