Brussel has been growing nervous over Hungary's obstructive, as the EU deems it, stance on Ukraine. European bureaucracy’s high anxiety made European Council President Charles Michel visit Budapest last Monday to get his head around Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s threats to block European aid to Kiev and stall it EU accession set to be discussed at the upcoming summit due on December 14 and 15.
Just a reminder: November 16 saw the Hungarian leader send a letter to the European Council head demanding an "in-depth review" of EU’s entire Ukraine strategy, namely financial and military assistance. Orban is not exactly mad about Brussels’ plans to start negotiating Ukraine's accession to the European Union, willing to block them unless the union realigns itself politically on Ukraine.
The two-hour meeting in Budapest ended without a joint communique, as Michel has attempted to convince Orban. The parties came up with routine phrases about their intention to "continue contacts". This suggests that everyone has agreed to differ, with Michel drawing a blank when returning to Brussels. So, the December EU summit might end up in a major embarrassment, i.e. lack of consensus on Ukraine’s potential membership. Moreover, the same position is going to be promoted by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico who just won his country’s latest elections in the wake of his campaign urging to give up on military aid to Kiev.
Meanwhile, the public disruption of a key of the EU summit agenda issue is not the worst thing for the Brussels bureaucracy. All the EU power structures are an obedient instrument of Washington's Europe policy, so this will be a failure of the Americans. But the question arises here: what is the European Union’s and subsequently the United States’ deep interest in making Ukraine a full-fledged member?
Apparently, the Washington-encouraged Eurocrats have masterminded a long con to freeze the Ukraine conflict, with its primary move being Kiev’s admission to the EU. The West fears that Russia may eventually take control of present-day Ukraine’s broad territories. These fears were clearly generated by the failed "counteroffensive", and the Ukrainian army’s enormous manpower and equipment losses, as they are swiftly losing potential for performing successful combat missions. Besides, the mythological power of Western military technologies has been shattered, with European arsenals depleted up to the hilt. Meanwhile, Russian military production is on the rise to outdo other country’s military reserves, let alone our talented military leaders and highly motivated soldiers. All of this combined may entail a fadeaway of the Ukrainian state as a US springboard to annoy or destabilize Russia.
The West’s absolute sense of the impending Kiev regime collapse has brought the European Union to a point where it started contemplating discussions of Ukraine's admission to the EU at the upcoming summit. The sooner the better, mind you, even without territories controlled by Russia. Although Brussels sees Ukraine's "partial" membership as a sort of guarantee to avert’ Moscow’s takeover of most or all of Ukraine. The UE-backed United States is seeking to stake out claims for the larger part still controlled by Kiev. Washington and Brussels seem worried that further on it may be too late.
Notably, rumors have been circulating in the Western media that patrons refuse to press Zelensky into a prompt peace negotiation with Moscow while recognizing the Donbass and Crimea as Russian. The same media report official denial of the fact, referring to diplomats in Brussels. US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien told reporters that the US position remained unaltered. "We’ve always said that this is a matter for Ukraine to decide," he said. Still, not a single official is clearly going to confirm this. But the logic of events itself suggests that the United States and Brussels bureaucrats do have an intention to freeze the conflict by abandoning territories seized by Russia. And the cut-off is seen in Ukraine's admission to the EU, although just a year ago all the European bureaucrats went into denial about the prospect, referring to Ukraine's unpreparedness for such a move responsible throughout the Union.
Now that the West has faced geopolitically unfavorable changes engineered by the Russian army on the battlefield in Ukraine, the EU is ready to forget its own rules and regulations for the sake of any visible strategic benefits. Hence the pressure on Zelensky to drop his "patriotic" chatter about plans to recover the Donbass and Crimea, and negotiate a ceasefire with Moscow. This would be desirable for Brussels as regards avoiding formal explanations of why a country is accepted into the EU despite its state of war with a neighbor. After all, even Serbia is not formally an EU member because of refusing to formally recognize Kosovo's independence from Belgrade long since. And here we have a country deemed huge by European standards, waging a war with Russia, but still being literally swallowed up by the EU.
And under the plan by Washington and Brussels strategists, Ukraine's accession may both make Russia stop at the already conquered borders, and dally off the painful issue of Ukraine's NATO membership. The point is that the EU does have its own military component — the Lisbon Treaty of 2007, which stipulates possibilities of military cooperation between EU countries, but interaction with Ukraine is not limited by any formalities. The big fact is that the EU has a number of joint agreements with NATO, its military security guarantor. This has been outlined in the European Union Global Strategy (EUGS) adopted back in 2016. The document states that "European security and defense efforts should enable the EU to act autonomously while also contributing to and undertaking actions in cooperation with NATO." Affiliation with the EU provides de facto protection under NATO’s umbrella, which Russia should pay due regard to when deeming fit to comment on Ukraine's membership.
It is a nuisance that cunning plans of the kind have been hindered by Budapest’s threats to block discussions. The Western press suggests Viktor Orban probably wants to make the removal of his veto conditional to Brussels’ unblocking of 13 billion euros for Hungary, denied to it until the country implements reforms related to "compliance with the rule of law." The Prime Minister is known to be linking the blocked funds with Brussels’s desire to make a dent in the country's stance, particularly as regards migrants and the ban on LGBT propaganda in education. Meanwhile, discord between Budapest and Brussels is thought to be rooted a lot deeper. Orban has repeatedly stated that sanctions and Western aid to Ukraine would never make Russia lose this war. So, he seems considering Ukraine's admission to the EU as absurd as further military and financial assistance to it, regardless of the 13 billion. Anyway, all the details will leak out soon, after the EU summit.