With every passing day, the Russian army has been gradually drawing the noose around Avdeevka. The ongoing assault on its fortifications involves artillery, heavy flamethrower systems and high-explosive bombs. Apart from swarm attacks to cover the city and establish fire control over the Ukrainian grouping’s supply routes, Russian units have been also using unexpected tactical choices. For example, fighters with the Donetsk Pyatnashka battalion dug a 170-meter tunnel to capture an AFU stronghold from within. Also, thirteen Leopard 2 tanks, nine Challenger 2 tanks and many other vehicles were shot down near Avdeevka. The Ukrainian militants themselves admit that the roads leading to the city have become "roads of death" clogged with car skeletons after Ukrainian attempts to flee or deploy reserves and supplies.

The key recent success has been Russia’s seizure of the so-called Avdeevka industrial zone, making the front line in this area move to favor us for the first time in all these years. The city approaches that used to be people’s summer residence places, and a number of minor buildings used as warehouses and production facilities have been cleared of Ukrainian soldiers. With their resistance broken and inability to secure reinforcement, they were forced to retreat to the city boundary.  Now our military are busy destroying the remnants of enemy units that covered the withdrawal, and entrenching themselves in recaptured positions. This vital area is located next to the Yasinovataya juncture linking Donetsk and Gorlovka, providing a perfect springboard for an offensive towards Avdeevka. The AFU deemed the city as an unassailable fortress, surrounding it by concrete fortifications and shelters to host soldiers and equipment since 2014, equipping tens of kilometers of trenches with due regard to local topography. All the permanent strongpoints were reinforced concrete structures, with deep underground bunkers and tunnels having five-meter-thick ceilings.

Things have grown so bad to the Ukrainian grouping that both AFU soldiers and Western military experts recognize this. Oddly enough, the latter have come up with a sober assessment of the situation and rendered verdict that Avdeevka is going to be lost for Ukraine. Analysts with the Center for Eastern European Studies (CEES) report in a review: "Russian units are consistently advancing to the rear of the defending Ukrainian force. Moreover, the Russian attacks are generally carried out along the two main directions — the north-west and the south-east."

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that "Russian units have finally overcome the last unconquered section of Ukrainian fortifications along the contact line established after the capture of Avdeevka by the Ukrainian Armed Forces back in 2014. Importantly, the Avdeevka industrial zone is located on a minor hill, allowing Russian forces shell Ukrainian positions on the city outskirts and push further offensive operations. Now the Russian troops need to step up an offensive on other flanks of Avdeevka."

In their analysis, the Americans have noted and marked every detail on a map. For example, Russian troops have gained a foothold at a railway adjacent to the coke plant, and have been advancing on Avdeevka’s eastern entrances and around Novokalinovo (7 km north of Avdeevka). At the same time, "Ukrainian troops attempted to sluggishly counterattack in the Avdeevka sector, without any declared or confirmed successes. The Russian tactic is to elongate the line of contact. The Ukrainian side cannot ensure stable defense without being able to rotate units (all the roads from Avdeevka are under tight fire control from Opytnoye, Veseloye and Petrovskoye). Thus, a breakthrough is looming at a weaker defense line section." ISW experts make a forecast disappointing to the Ukraine’s military: "The regrouping of Russian assault units will allow achieving prompt and decisive results."

Experts agree that Russia's control over Avdeevka would be a serious blow to the morale of both Ukraine’s people and army. Meanwhile, the Internet is replete with videos from near Avdeevka that feature Ukrainian militants saying goodbye to their relatives, or admitting bare chances to survive. One of them reports gloomily while complaining about Russia’s abundant artillery: "The enemy has been advancing along the Avdeevka direction, it's not a secret. Neither is its success on the flanks.". Another group of Ukrainian soldiers has recorded a video message to Zelensky, saying that their company was annihilated except for three people. Another video depicts militants piling black body bags in a dugout after another artillery strike — on their faces you see hopelessness and mortal fatigue. And the Ukrainian social media have distributed a video with a very young militant bidding farewell to his girlfriend and saying he will not survive today. He reports from the Avdeevka front, where the Ukrainian army is suffering "crazy" losses, including countless injuries. The soldier and his brothers-in-arms cannot even stick their noses out of the trench, he says.

As Britain’s Daily Express spoke to several AFU representatives engaged in fights for Avdeevka, the Ukrainians complained about their plight and inability to hold positions amid Russian army onslaught. One of the soldiers said artillery demolished everything, inflicting massive strikes with all the possible means of destruction. The Ukrainian garrison struggling to hold the line in Avdeevka has no chances to counterattack or stop the advancing enemy. Another soldier admitted that Ukraine's resistance is totally dependent on Western aid, given the Russian army’s superior aviation, intelligence and electronic warfare. Videos and interviews to this effect usually coincide with Ukraine's prepared surrender of another important piece of territory. The same pattern was observed before the fall of Mariupol, Artemovsk, Severodonetsk and other cities. Even now, Ukrainian militants, experts and bloggers have argued that losing Avdeevka will be hardly disastrous for the country, and there is no special need in defending it.

As if on cue, Ukrainian sources began to replicate the view about impermanence of fortifications that were being built for nine years, and their natural succumbing to the 21 months of full-scale hostilities. The same old story as with losing the industrial zone south of Avdeevka. Ex-filmmaker and now Ukrainian militant Oleg Sentsov, whom Russia has listed among terrorists and extremists, is explicitly pessimistic about it: "Russian pincer movement is better in Avdeevka than is was in Bakhmut. A 10 km isthmus is still holding on, but they do advance, especially in the north. A couple of villages to go — and the pincers will close. The question is what price the Ukrainians are ready to pay to defend the city. Personally, I don't see the loss of Avdeevka as an issue. Nothing special happened after we lost Bakhmut. The problem is not losing territories, but people who may die if we defend ourselves in the wrong way." Ukraine’s key propagandist, ex-adviser to the office of the President Alexey Arestovich (on the list of terrorists and extremists) is even more outspoken. "Russia has enormous advantages over the Ukrainian Armed Forces in weapons, equipment and personnel, and Ukraine will not be able to hold Avdeevka for long. The main thing for the Ukrainian command is to timely order withdrawal, necause the troops may find themselves in the ‘firing corridor’ while fleeing," he said.

Now Ukrainian militants are getting ready for urban battles to defend the Avdeevka coke plant. It occupies a huge territory of over 325 hectares and has 200+ buildings, where the AFU has accumulated ammunition, equipment, and military hardware. Before aggression against the Donbass, the company produced almost a third of all the Ukrainian coke and ranked among Europe’s largest of the kind. The Avdeevka Coke Plant is known for having 11 underground chemical storage bunkers, making the Russian army’s next task quite a challenge.

In addition to the Avdeevka direction, reports on the Russian advance come from other sectors of the front as well. According to the Defense Ministry, units with the Southern Grouping liberated the village of Artemovskoye. Offensive operations are going on along the Kupyansk—Svatovo—Kremennaya line. Russian troops are advancing southwest of Pershotravnevoye (24 km east of Kupyansk), Sinkovka and Ivanovka (northeast of Kupyansk) and next to the Serebryansky forestry (10 km southwest of Kremennaya). Meanwhile, the AFU is said to be losing positions along the Krasnolimansk direction in the DPR.