Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has begun his latest visit to the United States in a desperate bid to secure more funding for Kiev amid stiff Republican opposition in Congress; Donald Tusk has returned as prime minister of Poland after the outgoing PiS government lost a no confidence vote; and Israel has not set any deadlines for ending its Gaza military operation. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agenc.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Inside Biden’s desperate dash to secure more Ukraine cash by year-end
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky began his latest visit to the United States on Monday. He will be holding talks with US President Joe Biden and speaking to senators. The visit is part of the White House's effort to push a bill through Congress for $110 bln in new national security spending. If passed, the funds would be earmarked for assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, as well as beefing up security on the US’ southern border with Mexico. However, the administration’s last-ditch bid to wrangle more cash for Ukraine out of Congress will almost certainly fail, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes, noting that the Republicans are only willing to vote for the package if the Democrats agree to tighten immigration regulations, something they are loath to do. There is a growing probability that the entire debate over continued funding for Ukraine will be postponed until next year.
Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of US and Canadian Studies, told the newspaper that Zelensky will not be able to persuade the recalcitrant Republicans. "If the choice was between funding Taiwan or Ukraine, his arguments might work. But this is an election year, and the Republicans have clearly defined their priorities: what matters is what happens in the United States. In this case, the Mexican border. Other concerns are secondary. By inviting Zelensky, the Biden administration has, in my opinion, used its last reserve, which shows its fragility. However, the Ukrainian president's exhortations and demands are unlikely to have any effect. They may even have a boomerang effect and be perceived as interference in US domestic affairs. Given the current discussion surrounding the potential impeachment of Biden (on allegations of corruption, some linked to his oversight of Ukrainian affairs as vice president - TASS), this would not be the best background for the president," the expert said. According to Vasiliev, the most realistic way of resolving the impasse on further Ukraine funding would be to postpone the entire discussion until next year. Aid to Ukraine will most likely be folded into the overall Pentagon budget and reduced accordingly. After all, one must factor in the scenario wherein the conflict ends next year, thus eliminating the need for any further funding.
The Biden administration may not have initially anticipated that $61 bln would eventually be spent to finance Ukraine. The initial White House proposal was several times lower. Perhaps it was deliberately inflated because it was believed that the issue of reducing Ukraine spending would somehow come up in legislative horse trading with the Republicans.
Vedomosti: Tusk’s return as Polish premier signals no change in relations with Russia
Donald Tusk, former prime minister of Poland (2007-2014) and president of the European Council (2014-2019), has returned to power in Warsaw as the head of government. Mateusz Morawiecki, the outgoing prime minister from the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, was defeated in a vote of no confidence in the Sejm (Polish parliament) on December 11. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, however, the change at the top in Warsaw should not usher in any significant thaw in Polish-Russian relations.
According to Dmitry Bunevich, assistant to the head of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, the Tusk cabinet's goal in the next few months will be to enhance Warsaw’s strained relations with the European Union. His government's goal will be to overcome the crisis in relations with Brussels that the PiS government has left in its wake, as well as to unfreeze the Eurofunds earmarked for Poland. Tusk's mission will also include the normalization of relations with Berlin, Poland's most important trade and economic partner in Europe.
"No changes should be expected in relations with Russia. At most, Tusk will bring Poland's rhetoric in closer synch with the general rhetorical line coming from Brussels," Bunevich noted. According to the expert, Tusk will be forced to govern in a state of perpetual conflict with PiS, which will remain a potent force in the Sejm and has numerous supporters among executives of state enterprises, the media, the judiciary, the security services, and even at the local government level. While PiS will make life difficult for Tusk, it will not be able to paralyze the new government.
Stanislav Kuvaldin, researcher at the European Union Research Sector at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), noted that the trend under the PiS government of turning Warsaw into an EU pariah, prone to aggressive rhetoric and poor ties with its neighbors, particularly Germany, has come under considerable criticism. Tusk will now use his position to deepen connections with the EU, with a focus on relations with Germany, the expert told Vedomosti. In terms of Russia, significant changes are unlikely since the Polish political system's consensus is set on pursuing a policy of containment of Moscow. The only thing that might be expected is a retreat from Warsaw’s recent extreme stance toward Moscow in favor of a more restrained position, Kuvaldin concluded.
Izvestia: Israel not bound by set deadline for ending Gaza military operation
Israel is not setting any exact timetables for concluding its military operation in the Gaza Strip against radical Palestinian movement Hamas, and a harsh scenario is now emerging in the fighting zone, official Israel Defense Forces (IDF) representative Anna Ukolova told Izvestia. According to her, more than 100 IDF soldiers have been killed since the ground operation began. She acknowledged that Hamas was well-prepared, while the Palestinian side is also still holding 137 hostages from several nations, including Russia.
Fighting in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and Israel continues in the Palestinian enclave's southern and northern territories. Meanwhile, media reports claim that Washington is exerting pressure on Israel to halt the conflict by the beginning of next year, but the IDF maintains it will fight until its objectives are met.
"The army completes the tasks assigned to it by the government. We will carry out our responsibilities. All such concerns are addressed at the government level. Now that we have complete freedom of action, the army is working hard to achieve the goals that were established at the start of the war: the elimination of Hamas and the release of those who have been kidnapped. There are still 137 hostages being held captive," Ukolova told Izvestia.
The IDF, she claimed, does not establish specific timelines for fulfilling assigned missions. "The situation in Gaza is difficult. We must admit that Hamas prepared extremely well," Ukolova continued.
Washington is dissatisfied with the war's results thus far. The crimes that everyone is witnessing in the Gaza Strip have had a bad impact on the United States' reputation, Asmat Mansour, Palestinian journalist and member of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, told Izvestia, adding that the violence in Gaza has expanded beyond the solely Palestinian-Israeli conflict. On the other hand, the United States vetoed the UAE's proposed resolution for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on December 8.
Vedomosti: US to propose exchange of missile launch notifications with China
The Biden administration is considering proposing the exchange of missile launch notifications with China, a senior State Department official told Nikkei Asia. Washington hopes to revive the arms control dialogue, which resumed on November 6, 2023, after a multi-year hiatus. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, China could attempt to avoid substantive negotiations and will not agree to reveal its nuclear capability to the US.
According to the official, the US is seeking to persuade China to make a shared commitment to explain what each side is doing regarding missile launches. The US believes they can achieve this, thanks in part to China’s 10-year extension of an agreement with Russia on notifications of ballistic missile and space vehicle launches in 2020, Vedomosti writes.
According to Alexander Ermakov, a Russian International Affairs Council analyst, Washington is attempting to entice Beijing into a strategic arms limitation deal in order to monitor, or at least understand, the quantitative growth of Chinese weaponry. At the same time, he noted that the Chinese side is doing everything possible to avoid such talks in order to modernize its strategic forces and would agree to initiate a real dialogue only when conditions are closer to parity.
Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), believes that China will continue to avoid substantive negotiations and will not agree to reveal its nuclear capability to the US.
According to Ermakov, on the other hand, China is not ready to fully abandon its dialogue with the US. "The US is promoting a positive agenda on the global stage for preventing an arms race and a potential nuclear war between great powers. As a result, China would incur damage to its image if a dialogue is avoided," he told Vedomosti. He believes that, as a last resort, the parties would accept non-binding declarations or initiate a series of "confidence-building measures," including the US-proposed missile launch notification treaty, which would be a symbolic step that would look good in the media.
Izvestia: Hungary joins Poland, Slovakia in blockading Ukrainian carriers
Right on the heels of Poland and Slovakia, Hungary has joined the blockade of checkpoints on the Ukrainian border, with Hungarian truckers closing the Zahony-Chop checkpoint since December 11. Despite the fact that Kiev seems to have reached an agreement with Warsaw on a partial opening of the border, the Ukrainian economy has already suffered a loss of 400 mln euros as a result of the protests. These measures may prove to be evidence of Kiev's deeper problems: Hungary and Slovakia oppose the start of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine, and the media are already discussing the possibility of delaying the start of membership talks until at least the spring of 2024, Izvestia writes.
However, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia, exports are not that crucial for Kiev. "If exports were so important for Ukraine, this problem would be discussed much more often at a high level, if not already resolved," Vladimir Bruter, an analyst at the International Institute for Humanitarian-Political Studies, told the newspaper.
"Both Ukraine's exports and imports have fallen. The economy seems to be in the worst possible shape. Ukraine is self-sufficient in agricultural products only," Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia.
At the same time, the EU would not isolate Ukraine now, as this would raise concerns about the West's support for the Kiev government, Izvestia writes.
With this in mind, the EU summit is approaching, when, as predicted, negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the community can begin. However, not everyone is ready to even consider such a possibility, according to the newspaper. For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already requested that this issue be removed from the agenda of the Euro-summit.
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