Russian President Vladimir Putin files nomination papers with the Central Election Commission (CEC) to begin the formal registration process to run for re-election in 2024; Pyongyang tests a record number of ICBMs in 2023, triggering alarm bells in Seoul; and President Aleksandar Vucic’s coalition claims a solid victory in Serbian parliamentary elections. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russi, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Putin files candidate nomination papers, making 2024 re-election run official
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin filed all necessary nomination documents with the country’s Central Election Commission (CEC) to formally begin the process of being registered as a candidate in the presidential election to be held on March 15-17, 2024.
By filing his nomination papers with the CEC, the incumbent president has indicated that he is, in fact, "launching an active [re-]election campaign," Oleg Lyakhovenko, senior researcher in the Political Science Department at Lomonosov Moscow State University, told Izvestia.
"The election campaign is taking place amid [a process of] consolidation around the national leader. In this case, the president’s steps do clearly highlight this fact. As regards [the fact that he is running as a non-partisan independent via] self-nomination, Putin has always made it clear that he is the president of all Russians, regardless of their party affiliations or political preferences. In this sense, he is remaining true to himself as he is demonstrating, as he has done before, that he represents all citizens," the expert maintained.
At the same time, the fact that the president took part in a recent United Russia party congress indicates that the ruling party "will still play a major role in his [re-]election campaign," he added.
Under Russian election law, an independent candidate for the office of president must demonstrate sufficient popular support by gathering at least 300,000 signatures of voters. Moreover, each of Russia’s 89 constituent regions must account for at least 7,500 signatures of voters residing in the given region. All signatures must be filed with the CEC by January 31, following which the chief electoral body will consider all documents and formally decide whether to register the candidate within a 10-day period.
Izvestia: North Korea tests record number of ICBMs in 2023, triggering alarm in Seoul
South Korea is ready for "a devastating response" in the event of a North Korean attack, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol warned after Seoul’s northern neighbor launched two missiles, prompting Yoon to call for activating a communication hotline with the United States and Japan. The South Korean Defense Ministry said it could be set up "in the next few days." Also, the three countries’ national security advisers discussed the situation. The White House confirmed that the allies agreed to enhance cooperation by using the joint communication channel.
Pyongyang’s missile launches came a few days after South Korea and the US wrapped up another round of nuclear security talks. In this light, the North Korean Defense Ministry accused Washington and Seoul of accelerating nuclear tensions on the peninsula as it characterized the US activity as "a preview to a nuclear war." The North Korean military also criticized the US move to deploy its nuclear-powered submarine USS Missouri at the South Korean naval base in Busan. North Korea’s defense agency warned that it would take more aggressive steps to counter threats.
"Escalation is highly likely indeed, <…> as escalating [relations] has become an obvious trend," Anna Polenova, senior lecturer at the Asia Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ State Academic University for the Humanities, told Izvestia.
Some experts argue that both launches were indeed "meant" to be a demonstration to the United States. North Korea may be trying to show that it can hit strategic US facilities with the use of shorter-range missiles and that it can reach the country’s mainland with intercontinental ballistic missiles. "This is a warning that we (North Korea - TASS) possess ‘weapons of revenge’ <…>. Their [North Korea’s] entire defense system is designed to counter the United States, which has been provoking them. As long as US aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines and bombers enter South Korean territory, there will be no discussing any elimination of nukes," Kim Yong Un, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
According to South Korean media, North Korea’s missile launches may have something to do with two important dates for Pyongyang that are coming up next year: on January 8, 2024, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will turn 40, and his late father’s birthday on February 16 coincides with a major public holiday. Also, launches may become more frequent ahead of South Korean parliamentary elections in April. However, Polenova doubts that it is worth looking for direct links between important historical dates, as, she argues, there is a logical internal driver for more missile launches, namely the need to test the latest technological solutions.
Vedomosti: President Aleksandar Vucic’s coalition wins parliamentary election in Serbia
The Aleksandar Vucic-Serbia Must Not Stop pro-presidential coalition, which includes Serbia’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), won early parliamentary elections in the Balkan country. According to B92 television, it scored 46.3% of the votes in Sunday’s election, based on a vote count from 95% of all polling stations.
Vucic himself lauded the results as "an absolute victory," the Politika newspaper wrote. "We are facing trying times when we will have to communicate and continue our European path," he said, while insisting that Serbia’s course toward European integration will not prevent the country from maintaining its traditionally close relationships with either Russia, on which it has not imposed any sanctions, or China.
The election win gives Vucic the opportunity to postpone forming a cabinet, as the law permits delaying the process of forming the new government until the end of next spring, Yekaterina Entina, head of the Center for Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, believes. If desired, any decision-making can be held back in the next six months, until Russia holds its presidential election, the European Parliament carries out electoral activities ahead of the upcoming European elections, a clearer picture emerges of how Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine will progress, and the United States becomes fully engrossed in its own domestic political agenda in the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, the expert argues.
The current situation, taking into account both Serbia’s foreign policy course, its attitude toward Russia and the existence of a number of other problems, including Kosovo and Republika Srpska in Bosnia, requires solutions that would alleviate Western pressure on Belgrade. Vucic’s party will most likely form a coalition with its traditional partner, Ivica Dacic’s Socialist Party, and national minority parties. The expert views the fact that Serbia’s two pro-Russian parties failed to make it into parliament as a surprising outcome of the elections.
Although the pro-Western opposition scored more votes than in the last elections, they did not take it as a victory as they expected to defeat the incumbent government with a united front in the next few years, but, in the end, Vucic’s party and its coalition partners will once again be forming the government, Anastasia Maleshevich, a researcher with the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), told Vedomosti.
Vedomosti: Russian pipeline gas exports to EU drop by 60% in January-November
Russian pipeline gas supplies to the European Union declined by 60% year on year in January-November 2023, falling to 24 bln cubic meters, according to the latest monthly report by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Russia’s share in the EU’s total pipeline gas imports dropped from 32% to 17% year on year.
Other natural gas suppliers to the European market did not increase their exports in 2023 either, the report shows. BCS World of Investments senior oil and gas analyst Ronald Smith notes that Norwegian gas supplies to the bloc are restricted by production volumes in that Nordic country, while Azerbaijan cannot pump more because of limitations on its pipeline infrastructure. Meanwhile, North African pipeline gas supplies reached a 12-year high in 2022, and the expert sees little room for any short-term growth there.
Increasing supplies from these countries will require major investments, Igor Yushkov, a senior analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, agrees. However, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman points to Azerbaijan’s plans to raise gas exports to Europe to 20 bln cubic meters by 2027.
According to Kaufman, in 2024, demand for natural gas may "partially recover" amid fuel price stabilization in Europe. While Yushkov does not see any demand recovery, he expects the decline in gas consumption to slow down.
Kommersant: Oil prices soaring in wake of Houthi attacks on shipping in Red Sea
Global oil benchmark Brent surged to almost $80 per barrel, while Russia’s Urals blend benchmark traded at over $66 per barrel amid regular attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels on merchant vessels in the Red Sea and the US Federal Reserve softening its rhetoric.
Any major halt of or restrictions on transit via the Suez Canal will cause heavy repercussions for global oil trade, analysts warn. According to Ronald Smith, a senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, since the Ukraine crisis erupted and Europe refused to buy Russian oil and petroleum products, the Suez Canal has been playing a key role for Russian oil and petroleum exports to customers in Asia as well as for European imports from the Middle East.
However, market players do not predict any major hike in oil prices, as geopolitical conflicts only offer short-term support to oil prices, unless they escalate to an all-out war. In the longer term, oil prices are driven by global consumption, which in turn depends on how the world economy fares. "The slowdown in the global economy amid the decade’s highest interest rates and disagreement within OPEC+ as well as their unconvincing announcement of an oil production cut at the November 30 meeting weighed on oil prices," Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasilyev says. Smith sees $80 per barrel of Brent as a fair oil price in 2024, as he expects crude prices to fluctuate in quite a wide range between $65 to $95 per barrel.
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