Russia and China are building a new model for relations between key global powers; the US is giving Israel three weeks to end its high-intensity military operations in the Gaza Strip; and a ten-country, US-led naval coalition will seek to ensure the safety and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea against attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency
Media: Russia, China building new model of relations between global powers
Russia and China signed ten bilateral documents following the 28th meeting of the two countries’ heads of government in Beijing. The talks were focused on trade and economic cooperation. Moscow and Beijing have almost completely switched to their respective national currencies, the ruble and the yuan, in executing bilateral trade settlements. Meanwhile, ties are growing apace in the areas of energy, commerce and agricultural exports, Izvestia writes.
Relations between Russia and China are progressing steadily and there is currently no reason to expect the trend to change in the foreseeable future, Russian International Affairs Council Program Manager Yulia Melnikova said. The year 2024 will mark the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation (and before it, the Soviet Union) and the People’s Republic of China, and, on top of mutual efforts aimed at boosting trade ties, the countries will hold a number of high-level events to mark the occasion, she added.
"Moscow can and should integrate more actively into transit operations along the China-Mongolia-Russia route. Infrastructure cooperation may serve as a catalyst for investment and trade. There is also a related aspect, which includes efforts to harmonize [standards and procedures between] the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and China, and find a suitable format for preferential cooperation," Melnikova pointed out. In addition, there is room for Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic, as well as for transport and research cooperation, the expert stressed.
For Russia, "it is only right to enhance ties with China, given the country’s geographical and political situation," which is why relations have been gaining impetus in the past year-and-a-half, Vladimir Salnikov, head of the real sector department at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), told Vedomosti.
The factors driving the expansion in ties between Russia and China include not only mutual interests but also external global factors that are serving as an inducement for the two countries to stick together, said Yekaterina Novikova, associate professor in the Economic Theory Department at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Today, we are witnessing the fragmentation of the global economy, which is being divided into two major alliances, BRICS and the G7, which will try to win over all other countries to their respective sides, the expert explained.
Vedomosti: US gives Israel three weeks to wrap up heavy fighting in Gaza
US officials are in discussions with their Israeli counterparts on the preferred timeframe for bringing an end to high-intensity, heavy combat operations in the Gaza Strip and making a transition to more precision-strike tactics, Vedomosti writes, citing The New York Times. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin may have touched upon the issue during his December 18 visit to Tel Aviv, where he held talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
On December 19, Israeli President Isaac Herzog announced that the country was ready for another humanitarian pause in Gaza in order to free its hostages and would also agree to allow additional humanitarian aid deliveries. Austin’s trip could have been part of the US administration’s effort to put pressure on the Israeli authorities aimed at compelling them to switch to more precision-strike tactics in about three weeks, according to sources.
US rhetoric has recently included mild criticism of what Israel is doing. US President Joe Biden stated on December 13 that Israel was losing global support due to its indiscriminate bombing of residential areas in the densely populated Gaza Strip, home to over 2 mln Palestinians before the recent outbreak of fighting between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and militants of the radical Palestinian group Hamas. The Economist magazine reported on December 11 that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the Israeli authorities during a visit to the country to end the Gaza operation by the new year.
The IDF’s initial plan included a transition to a new stage of military activities, said Dmitry Maryasis, who heads the Department of Israel Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Asian Studies. The West is giving Israel time to seize critical areas in Gaza that will allow the IDF to move to the next operational stage. Chances are that some incidents will change the scenario of the conflict but, so far, the Gaza operation has been going according to this plan and a transition to the next stage of the conflict will come as no surprise.
The Biden administration has found itself in a difficult situation wherein it needs to midwife an end to the conflict that results in peace, however fragile, said Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. Although Israel clearly wants to continue military operations, the US effectively has Tel Aviv on a short leash of restrictions regarding financial assistance and military supplies, the expert noted.
Media: US-led naval coalition sets sail to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi threat
The US Defense Department will conduct Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea against the Yemen-based Houthi rebels. The largely maritime operation is supposed to involve naval forces from 10 countries, including the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Spain and Italy. Houthi attacks on ships heading to Israel via the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean are threatening global trade. Insurance companies have raised premiums ten-fold, while major shipping lines have suspended container ship travel through the Red Sea, Izvestia notes.
"Operation Prosperity Guardian does not look promising without a ground operation," Ilya Kramnik, researcher with the Center for Strategic Planning Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), points out. However, in his view, NATO forces are unlikely to launch a ground operation in Yemen but will limit themselves to steps to protect civilian shipping in the Red Sea along with missile and air strikes on the Houthis’ coastal targets.
"The situation emphasizes that the trade route through the Suez Canal cannot be considered effective enough in terms of time and fuel costs, as well as overall expenses. In this regard, Russia’s Northern Sea Route project, which has been supported by the Chinese in relation with the Arctic leg of their Belt and Road Initiative, is becoming relevant once again," said Danila Krylov, researcher with the Department of the Middle East and Post-Soviet Asia at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"I view the fact that the Americans are getting involved in Yemen as part of a great game [scenario]; there is more to it than just a desire to punish the Houthis or Iran, as it is more likely driven by a desire to prevent the monopolization of the market and hinder Chinese export deliveries to Europe. The Americans need an operational Suez Canal and a corridor between India and Europe, while the Chinese don’t want it because these are two direct competitors," Middle East expert Andrey Ontikov stressed.
"Washington will hardly launch a lengthy, large-scale campaign against the Houthis, given the negative experience that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have had [in that corner of the Arabian Peninsula]. More likely, there will be separate police operations, including air strikes on certain targets and raids by special operations forces, along with intensified patrols along the Yemeni coast," Nikolay Surkov, senior researcher with the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Kommersant. Another factor that is significantly limiting US freedom of maneuver in terms of the use of force is the need to take the interests of Washington’s key allies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, into account. They may suffer from an escalation of the conflict with the Houthis. "The solution to the problem lies more in political and diplomatic efforts rather than in military operations. The sooner Israel’s military operation in Gaza comes to an end, the easier it will be to restore the status quo in the Red Sea," the expert concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Cold War II benefits only Washington, IMF acknowledges
Global economic losses from a new Cold War will reach about $3 trillion this year, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The US economy is the only one that has benefited from the situation, accelerating its growth compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic forecasts, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Ukraine will withstand a lack of foreign financial aid for a couple of months, but will face difficulties unless the EU and US manage to successfully resolve the Kiev funding issue in the interim, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told The Financial Times. She stressed that the IMF and Kiev had taken tough actions to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability. That said, the IMF is financing the Kiev regime in breach of its own rules. Western globalists are outraged by the IMF’s reformatting as they used to see the fund as a tool of globalization that enjoyed the trust of nearly all governments worldwide.
IMF officials suggest calling the current deterioration of the geopolitical situation a second Cold War. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath points out that the global economy is now divided into two opposing camps the way it was during the first Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. Visible globalization processes were underway between the late 1940s and the Soviet Union’s collapse in the early 1990s. Global trade was growing faster than global GDP. However, trade between the hostile blocs stagnated or decreased. The situation may go in the same direction this time, too, with the only difference being that the level of economic interdependence of countries is much higher now, while those countries that have not joined either of the blocs thus far enjoy far greater economic weight and can benefit from the confrontation between the major players.
The US has done a lot to undermine globalization, said Alexey Portansky, professor with the Department of the Global Economy at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). "The trade war with China that was unleashed under President Donald Trump continues under Joe Biden. In addition, serious fissures in relations with EU partners have occurred during his [Biden’s] tenure," the expert noted. According to him, "as a result of US activities, some major companies have started to relocate their operations to the US from Europe, which may trigger deindustrialization in the European Union. In response, EU member states agreed on an anti-coercion instrument in March," the expert noted.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: US, EU may try to control Russian oil exports through maritime straits
Many oil carrier companies have suspended operations in the Red Sea amid attacks by the Yemen-based Houthis. The situation is affecting a route leading to India, China and East Africa. After Moscow redirected its oil exports from Europe to other markets, this route has become one of the most important ones for Russian companies, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes.
Risks related to the passage through international straits are still high for Russian exports. The Houthi issue is likely to be resolved soon but the US and EU countries may resume attempts to control the Russian oil trade. Meanwhile, such practices will run counter to all agreements on the law of the sea. However, the number of collapsed international accords has been growing at an alarming rate in recent years. No one can guarantee that the US and the EU will not seek to take advantage of "bottlenecks" or geographical chokepoints that Russian oil exporters cannot bypass. US pressure earlier made the EU discuss the possibility of Denmark checking ships carrying Russian commodities and fuel that pass through its Skagerrak straits in order to make sure that these vessels have European insurance and abide by the price cap on Russian oil.
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, notes that Russia still ships much of its oil from Baltic Sea and Black Sea ports. This is why it is crucial for the country to maintain fair rules enshrined in international agreements, which provide for free navigation through the so-called Danish (Skagerrak) straits in the Baltic Sea, as well as through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. As for oil supplies to Asia, it is also important for Russia to preserve routine navigation through the Strait of Malacca, which is often described as a potential trouble spot in the event of a direct military conflict between China and the US.
Andrianov believes that the rules of passage through the Danish straits can in no way be changed because of sanctions as these rules are regulated by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). According to the expert, as for the Turkish straits, there is no such risk at all because Ankara is clearly not inclined to take heed of the European Union’s sanctions on Russian energy.
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