Brussels once again indulges its sanctions fetish by readying two more packages of EU sanctions against Russia amid a dwindling pool of targets; the Colorado Supreme Court ruled to throw former US President Donald Trump off the state’s primary ballot, thus potentially triggering a chain reaction effect; and the UN Security Council is sharply divided over how to address recent North Korean missile tests. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: EU readies two more sanctions packages against Russia as viable targets dwindle
The European Union is ready to adopt more anti-Russian sanctions, European Commission Spokesperson Daniel Sheridan Ferrie told Izvestia. "We are always ready to impose additional sanctions on Russia, but we never comment on the potential content [of another package] in advance," he said, when asked if the bloc is already working on the 13th package of restrictions. However, he refused to comment on whether work is already underway in Brussels to prepare an additional package.
Meanwhile, Czech Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Tomas Zdechovsky told Izvestia that the EU is already readying both the 13th and 14th packages of sanctions. According to him, developing the new measures will not take long. "They will be presented to member countries very soon," the politician specified.
The initiative to impose more sanctions will likely come primarily from the Baltic countries, Estonian MEP Yana Toom told Izvestia. "But the sanctions instrument is not infinite, and there is a limit somewhere, and it may come soon," she added.
Bundestag (German parliament) member Eugen Schmidt, from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, explained to Izvestia that while the imposition of new anti-Russian sanctions has already become "a good old European tradition," those restrictive measures already imposed on Russia have already had a negative boomerang effect on the German economy as well as numerous other EU economies.
Economist Alexey Khizhnyak from the Moscow branch of the Business Russia organization believes that the 12th package, which was approved by the EU on December 18, will not deliver any major blow to the Russian economy.
Hungarian journalist Gabor Stier, a member of the Valdai Discussion Club, argues that anti-Russian sanctions have turned into a bargaining chip in haggling between Brussels and individual member countries, expressing certainty that the number of nations demanding exemptions will grow. "There is almost nothing [left] to impose sanctions on [anymore], and they will eventually become increasingly symbolic," he told Izvestia.
Ekaterina Arapova, director of the Center for Sanctions Policy Expertise at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), sees a visible trend toward a widening split between the Brussels elite and individual national economies over the adoption of additional measures. According to her, the natural qualitative limit on further sanctions will gradually be exhausted. She expects the EU to add more dual-use goods to its list and impose more sanctions on individuals and legal entities. While the 13th package may include a ban on metals and a range of high-tech products as well as tighter transit restrictions, sanctions on the Russian nuclear industry are not likely to be introduced in the coming year, Arapova concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: State court ruling throwing Trump off ballot may cause chain reaction
The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled to bar former US President Donald Trump from the state’s primary election ballot because he had "engaged in insurrection" on January 6, 2021, when his ardent supporters stormed the US Capitol Building in Washington. Although the court ruling affects the state ballot in Colorado only, the decision is sure to have a ripple effect triggering nationwide consequences and a likely chain reaction in other states unless the US Supreme Court overturns the verdict before January 4, 2024, a little over a week before Iowa’s Republican caucuses, the first primary election contest of the year. If courts in numerous other states hand down similar rulings, it could potentially bar Trump from standing as a candidate altogether. If that occurs, then the likelihood of US President Joe Biden abandoning his re-election bid will increase. Given the 81-year-old incumbent’s high disapproval rating, many voters may see him as an acceptable "lesser evil" only if he is going up against Trump in a replay of the 2020 election, but otherwise would prefer a younger, less compromised alternative candidate.
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, surmised that the Colorado court ruling is, among other things, the Democrats’ response to the congressional Republicans’ recent vote to launch a formal impeachment inquiry into corruption allegations against Biden. Efforts are being made to pave the way for removing Trump from the ballot by administrative means, given that other methods have thus far proven ineffective, the expert says, including the so-called "lawfare" strategy of stymieing the ex-president with numerous lawsuits and prosecutions. Despite all criminal and civil charges brought against Trump, he remains the undisputed favorite among GOP voters. As well, Trump currently leads Biden in nationwide opinion polls by about 3%, according to RealClearPolitics, which is a considerable margin for a tightly contested US election.
In these circumstances, both Trump and the incumbent president may as well withdraw their candidacies altogether. While the former may be forced to do so, Biden may also be compelled to bow out by his own party because those very same opinion polls are showing that he is a sure loser in a face-off with any of Trump’s rivals for the Republican nomination, be it Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Also, Biden's withdrawal from the election campaign would dramatically increase the chances of former President Barack Obama returning to politics, the expert argues, potentially through former First Lady Michelle Obama. "In any case, guessing what will happen if Trump withdraws his candidacy will be possible only if the country’s Supreme Court decides to strike Trump down, which is not guaranteed. What matters most is how Americans will react to a potential [Supreme Court] ruling against Trump, who may then appeal to his voters and start rocking the boat. And then the US may face a very turbulent 2024," Vasilyev concluded.
Izvestia: UN Security Council divided over action on North Korea missile tests
On Wednesday, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) convened an emergency meeting following a recent ICBM launch by Pyongyang. Ten countries, including Japan, South Korea, the United States, France and Britain, condemned North Korea’s move in a joint statement. "North Korean nuclear and missile programs are absolutely inadmissible, as they pose a threat to peace and security in Japan and the world over," the Japanese Embassy to Russia told Izvestia.
However, the meeting yielded no result because of Russia and China, both being UNSC permanent members. Russian Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Anna Yevstigneyeva emphasized that a draft resolution prioritizing a political and diplomatic solution to the situation on the Korean peninsula "without external pressure," which was prepared by Moscow and Beijing, remains on the table.
A few hours prior to the UNSC meeting, Washington reiterated that it was ready to engage with North Korea, without any preconditions, at that. "We are still committed to a diplomatic approach to North Korea as we invite Pyongyang to dialogue. The United States does not harbor any hostility toward North Korea. And we remain unwavering in our commitment to protecting the Republic of Korea and Japan, at that," the US Embassy to Moscow told Izvestia.
"Nobody can undo the geographical fact that US military assets, including nuclear submarines, are stationed off North Korean coasts, not the other way around. <…> Though the Americans purport to be ready [for talks], they are ready to negotiate only North Korea’s capitulation," Georgy Bulychev, a consulting expert at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, stressed.
On Tuesday, the United States, Japan and South Korea established a three-way real time hotline to exchange information about Pyongyang’s missile launches. "Now that this communication hotline has been launched, Japan, South Korea and the US may as well use their air defense systems for combat. And since North Korea does not possess any early warning system, it may view any use of air defense systems as the start of an attack," Alexander Zhebin, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia, told Izvestia.
Izvestia: Economists explain Russia’s hydrocarbon resilience in face of Western sanctions
Russia has successfully weathered the West’s intended sanctions blow thanks to the so-called "big country trap," the Institute of Economics at the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) concluded. The academicians explained that if a country has a large enough economy, imposing restrictions on its exports - oil and gas in the case of Russia - will inevitably fuel global price growth. As a result, any reduction in physical supplies gets offset financially, for, despite the restrictions, Russia’s oil and gas revenues have recovered to the levels it enjoyed before the special military operation in Ukraine. Western capitals have seriously underestimated Russia as a key economic player, experts argue, although they warn that the positive effect of this "trap" will gradually fade away.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia agree. Restrictions on Russian exports have altered global energy prices: the reduction in exports has been offset by surging energy prices globally, confirms Alexey Kostin from the Tax, Audit and Business Analytics Department of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. This has enabled Russia to successfully diversify the geographical reach of its exports with the help of its partners, namely India, China and Iran, even if it granted discounts and other temporary exemptions to sweeten the deal, the expert said.
Maxim Maksimov, associate professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, agrees. Any attempts to impose restrictions on a key supplier will inevitably cause market destabilization. He believes that Western countries have seriously underestimated Russia as a global economic player. Although the Unites States and its allies will not abandon their attempts to somehow limit Russian export revenues, there are currently no solutions that could cut Russia’s export gains drastically, he concluded.
Darya Ushkalova, head of the Center for International Macroeconomics and International Economic Relations, advises the government to pursue an active policy aimed at expanding sales markets for domestic goods and logistics channels for exporters. Building transport infrastructure that will make it possible to redirect an entire range of exports away from Western routes toward Asian markets will be key, the expert argues.
Kommersant: Washington sanctions traders of Russian oil
The United States is seeking to reinforce the Russian oil price ceiling, the implementation of which has been slipping noticeably in the past six months. On December 20, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) toughened sanctions on obscure oil traders with non-transparent ownership structures that have been handling Russian oil since hostilities began in Ukraine. Two Hong Kong-based companies, Bellatrix Energy and Covart Energy, and UAE-based Voliton DMCC, were put on OFAC’s latest list of Specially Designated Nationals (SDN), the toughest level of US sanctions.
Before the spring of 2022, Trafigura, Vitol, Glencore and other major international oil traders mostly traded Russian oil, but they gradually abandoned working with Russian oil companies due to sanctions liability. Russian oil majors were forced to redirect their crude supplies away from the European market toward Asia. Amid sanctions against Russian state-aligned oil producers, companies from friendly jurisdictions owned by undisclosed individuals came to replace prominent oil traders for transactions with Russian oil.
As the majority of commodity traders who traded Russian oil in late 2022 disappeared from the market, affected companies will be replaced by new ones, Viktor Katona from Kpler insists.
The latest sanctions will not have a serious impact on the market, as dozens of traders are active in the Russian oil business and alternative companies will replace the sanctioned ones, Sergey Kondratyev, an expert at the Institute of Energy and Finance Foundation, agrees. In any case, sanctions have intensified in the past few months, putting pressure on the market, he admits.
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