There are only a few days left until year-end, and Ukraine’s Western partners have yet to decide on the extent of their aid, if at all.

The role of a ring leader in financing Ukraine has so far been played by the United States. But, as the Pentagon reported, the money it can allocate for this purpose is about run out on December 30. Now the American administration is urgently asking Congress to approve of extra funds. But Republican lawmakers have turned the "Ukrainian case" into a bargaining chip on the domestic political agenda: no money to Kiev before solving the migration crisis in the United States itself. Moreover, amid the ongoing election campaign, even pro-Ukrainian Republicans are ready to postpone new tranches and tighten Washington's border policy. This has put Kiev in a dangerous position, making it hostage to political showdown between the Democrats and the Republicans. With the Senate having postponed Christmas holidays that were to begin on December 15, and proceeding with efforts to find ways of overcoming the deadlock, the nearest future will see no vote on a deal to tighten migrant legislation in exchange for endorsing new aid to Ukraine. A group of Republican senators said the window has closed in this regard, asking party leadership to schedule a meeting as early as in January. Even Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a renowned Kiev proponent, has admitted that a deal is still away from here and may not take place until next year.

By contrast, the Republican House of Representatives did not reconsider its plans for Ukraine and left on Christmas vacation on December 14. The lower house of Congress will get back to work on January 9, but it will not necessarily issue the required permission right away. Besides, there are some of the finer points. As Republican Congressman Tony Gonzales noted when talking to CBS News, "The Senate is much different than the House. The Senate is going to have its battle getting to 60 votes. The House is going to have its battle getting to 218. We can do that. But we have to sweeten the deal." And without its approval, Kiev will have to kiss American money good-bye.

Neither should Ukraine count on Europe in the short term. The recent summit of EU leaders witnessed Hungary block the 50-billion-euro appropriation from the union’s 2024-2027 budget, since this would have provided for extra contributions from the member states’ own pockets. An extraordinary meeting of the European Council on Kiev’s further funding will only take place next year, on February 1.

There have been issues with another key sponsor, the United Kingdom. Kiev is worried about London’s protraction as regards its official military assistance budget for 2024. To the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this implies no chances to plan its steps or pre-emptively procure ammunition and weapons, which may have an impact on operational activity.

The lack of funding solutions has forced the American administration to seek laying the burden of Ukraine’s prompt weaponry assistance to its allies. So, as "requested by Washington," Japan is about to formalize eased arms export regulations to outbound several dozen Patriot missiles to the United States, so that they end up in the hands of Ukrainian military. Earlier, following a meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors, Japan’s Shun'ichi Suzuki said his country was ready to allocate an additional $4.5 billion to Ukraine. The Norwegian Prime Minister also pledged $31 million in defense procurement and $287 million in civil service salaries and humanitarian aid.

But these funds can hardly replace aid coming from the United States and Europe. And without it, Ukraine is only able to get through a couple of months alone, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva believes. Ex-advisor to the Pentagon chief Douglas McGregor is even more pessimistic, saying that Ukraine will only stay afloat for another 30 days without US aid. So, Washington and Brussels have been puttering around despite Kiev afire, as the Financial Times reports. With outside financial assistance not going to emerge before late January or early February 2024, Ukraine will probably have to move on to Plan B and simply print worthless money fraught with surging inflation, delays in social payments and ever-growing popular discontent.

However, money is not the only and perhaps not the main headache for Kiev — the key problem is the depletion of Western material military resources it can supply to Ukraine. A striking example is the 1 million shells the EU pledged to Ukraine by year-end. Subsequently, this quantity turned out unavailable, raising concerns about the AFU's ability to withstand the onslaught of Russian forces.

The situation being what it is, Western capitals started reflecting upon Kiev’s potential defeat. Experts interviewed by Bloomberg do not rule out Ukraine’s losing new territories and even sovereignty in case of no breakthrough in military assistance.

Incoherence among Western leaders on supporting Kiev is getting increasingly obvious. The US altered rhetoric is indicative here: Joe Biden used to promise to support Kiev "as long as it takes," but now puts it in a different way — "as long as we can." Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also added fuel to the doubts, saying the following at his concluding press conference to sum up the department’s performance throughout the year: "We have a very clear plan to make sure that Ukraine can stand on its own two feet – militarily, economically, democratically – so that these levels of support and assistance will no longer be necessary."

But the EU can scarcely compensate for America’s fading support. "Unfortunately, there is a real danger that support will start falling apart," German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck acknowledged, saying that Berlin needs to face up funds exceeding what has been outlined by 2024 budget (8 billion euros).

So, it can be said that Kiev will probably get some money next year, but the sum may prove not enough to balance the budget. And its 10-billion-dollar deficit is replete with issues regarding new IMF tranches (in December, the IMF approved of $900 million to Ukraine, but demanded credible financial guarantees for the next 12 months).