The US and its allies are setting their sights on confiscating frozen Russian assets by late February 2024; New Delhi is prioritizing nuclear and space cooperation with Moscow; and the festering migration crisis on the US-Mexico border could jeopardize incumbent US President Joe Biden’s chances for re-election. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Vedomosti: US, allies eye seizure of frozen Russian assets by year three of special op
The United States has proposed that working groups from the Group of Seven nations look into ways to confiscate frozen Russian assets worth $300 bln. The US and its allies, namely, the UK, Japan and Canada, expect to have a plan approved and ready to roll out by February 24, 2024, which marks the start of the third year of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The working groups would be charged with examining the legal issues surrounding any potential asset seizure as well as risk mitigation measures, The Financial Times reported on Thursday.
One of the main questions in this regard remains the possibility that the administration of US President Joe Biden may decide to seize Russian assets frozen in the West on a unilateral basis. Earlier, The New York Times quoted US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as saying that confiscation of frozen Russian reserves without Congressional authorization would not be legal. The debate around a potential asset seizure has intensified amid the Biden administration’s failure to coax recalcitrant Republicans to approve additional funding for Ukraine.
Harmonizing the West’s sanctions laws would also be relevant, says Ivan Timofeyev, director of the Russian International Affairs Council. Currently, only Canada has a legal mechanism for seizing Russian assets, while under US law a similar clause can be invoked only regarding assets pertaining to criminal cases. "The United States cannot confiscate the frozen assets for the time being," the expert stressed. And the European Union also lacks any practical legal precedent for carrying out such seizures. According to Timofeyev, although it may prove difficult to consolidate efforts toward seizing Russian assets, the West has been working actively to find a viable solution.
Among other options, Western countries are discussing the potential use of accrued interest and other income generated from Russian assets held at European financial institutions for the benefit of Ukraine. These or other confiscated Russian assets could potentially also be transferred through the World Bank or other such international financial institutions in tranches, said Sergey Glandin, a partner with BGP Litigation. However, the expert warned, any seizure of Russian assets risks violating international law. In addition, any potential asset confiscation may also violate agreements for the promotion and mutual protection of investments, he added.
While any seizure of Russian assets is out of the question for the time being, Timofeyev expects that initial results from legal efforts toward such an end may emerge already by February 2024. It is especially noteworthy in this regard that the US and its allies fear the risk of impaired images and reputations from a loss of trust in their financial institutions. As well, Russia has options to respond symmetrically to such a seizure, or it could take asymmetrical action in other areas outside of the economy, the expert concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: New Delhi prioritizes nuclear, space cooperation with Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin extended an invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Russia during Kremlin talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who is currently on a five-day visit to Moscow. Modi’s visit, which will take place in 2024, would signal the resumption of such meetings after a two-year hiatus, as previously such bilateral summits were held on an annual basis. Reviving such top-level meetings is important as Modi, Putin said, is seeking to do everything in his power to resolve the Ukraine problem peacefully.
At a meeting with members of the Indian diaspora in Moscow, India’s top diplomat said that bilateral cooperation in the nuclear sphere, as well as in defense and space exploration, would be impossible without the high degree of trust between the two countries.
Commenting on Jaishankar’s trip to Moscow, The New York Times wrote that US President Joe Biden would need a powerful ally to serve as a counterbalance to Russia and China. The authoritative US daily argued that the India-Russia relationship shows signs of strain, with New Delhi becoming increasingly worried that the pressure of Western sanctions will drive Russia ever closer to China.
However, that would not undermine trust between Moscow and New Delhi as India would to a certain extent continue to rely on Russian weapons and energy resources in any case, Happymon Jacob, an associate professor in the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said. Russia "is the only country which has delivered nuclear reactors to India, while the United States, which signed a ‘nuclear deal’ with India back in 2008, never did so," Jacob explained.
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Alexey Kupriyanov, chairman of the South Asia group at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), said: "The Kudankulam [nuclear power plant] is Moscow’s success story. Russia remains the only foreign power that builds industrial nuclear power plants [NPP] in India. <..> India suffers from a regular shortage of energy resources, so this is a great help. India was involved in the construction and installation work, and it will be in charge of maintenance service at the NPP, so this is a very valuable experience for the Indians, too."
The United States and France, Russia’s rivals who are also seeking to build NPPs in India, have attempted to hamper the Kudankulam project with the help of several media outlets that have published negative stories about it. Although India, much like Europe, is fearful of nuclear power plants, New Delhi has continued to push this NPP project forward, the expert explained.
Izvestia: Festering migration crisis on US-Mexico border jeopardizing Biden’s re-election
The latest wave of the ongoing migration crisis on the United States’ southern border with Mexico has the potential to sink incumbent US President Joe Biden’s chances for re-election in 2024. As thousands of migrants from Latin American countries have set off for the US border with Mexico, the Mexican authorities are doing nothing to prevent them from reaching their northern neighbor as they argue that refugees have the right to seek a better life. And while US Republicans are ringing alarm bells and calling for beefed-up border protection measures, their Democratic rivals are refraining from pursuing any substantive action, fearing a negative reaction from Latino voters in the run-up to next year’s pivotal presidential election.
Illegal immigration has become a sensitive political issue for Biden and could harm his chances to win a second term in office next November. The poorly regulated inflow of refugees from Mexico also stirred up partisan strife between the GOP and Democrats over the issue of approving more military aid for Ukraine earlier this month.
In order to address the building crisis, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and US Homeland Security Advisor Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall interrupted their Christmas holiday for an urgent trip to Mexico City to meet with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Traditionally, it is members of the Republican Party who favor toughening border controls on the southern border and combatting illegal immigration. In turn, Democrats are committed to an "open borders" policy as they view even the slightest restrictions on the unfettered entry of any foreigners as a sign of racism. "The Democratic Party believes that, by supporting migrants, it will be able to dilute the [votes of the more] conservative Southern states and obtain numerous new [Democratic] voters over time," political scientist and American studies specialist Dmitry Drobnitsky told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is refraining from taking any sudden moves, as it is counting on winning the votes of Latino citizens inside the US, even as it attempts to go through the motions of fighting illegal immigration for the benefit of other Americans. "Biden is seeking to earn brownie points among citizens of Latin American heritage, as there are numerous relatives of those who have already settled in the US among the marching migrants. Therefore, naturalized Latinos are interested in voting for Democrats in order to reunite with their families," political analyst Igor Pshenichnikov said.
Izvestia: Russian troops’ battle gear now includes Chukavin sniper rifles
Samples from the first serial production run of the Chukavin sniper rifle have been delivered to units of the Russian Armed Forces, Russian Defense Ministry officials told Izvestia. With time, the Chukavin sniper rifle should replace the SVD, or the Dragunov sniper rifle, which has been the basic sniper weapon used by the Russian Army since the 1960s.
Currently, army units are receiving a whole new line of sniper rifles, especially large-caliber ones, making it possible to enhance the combat effectiveness of units on the line of engagement, military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia. New materials and technology were used in manufacturing the Chukavin sniper rifle, which has been battle-tested and has fully confirmed its specifications. One can say that the weapon is as reliable as the SVD, while being better for longer-range shooting and more accurate at that. Now it will be more difficult for the enemy to evade Russian sniper fire, while Russian soldiers will have a better edge during sniper battles, the expert noted.
Meanwhile, Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine has given a strong impetus not only to the creation but also to the upgrading of the army’s existing inventory of rifles. In particular, the modernized Kalashnikov AK-12 assault rifle has undergone a baptism of fire in the course of the special op.
Following an analysis of its use, a decision was made to modernize the weapon, taking into account the real combat experience gained. The latest, or 2023, version of the AK-12 was presented back in the spring. Design changes have mostly affected the weapon’s ergonomics and are meant to improve its reliability and combat effectiveness. The inaugural batch of upgraded AK-12s will come into service with Russian troops in January 2024.
Vedomosti: Expanded BRICS may become self-sustaining market
As soon as the BRICS grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa expands to include such net grain importers as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE starting in 2024, it will almost level up production and consumption of key crops among its members. This creates the preconditions for a grain trade among BRICS members without using the dollar or establishing its own trading platform, the Russian Union of Grain Exports (RUGE) said in a letter to the Russian Agriculture Ministry, seen by Vedomosti.
RUGE President Eduard Zernin says that reducing the gap between grain production and consumption volumes in BRICS member countries would pave the way for setting up a BRICS trade and the group’s own grain exchange. According to him, the membership of two of the world’s largest grain importers, Egypt and China, and consumers of grain, as well as the inclusion of two major suppliers, Russia and Brazil, starting in 2024, would create a supply and demand balance inside the bloc, which would boost agricultural trade.
"We have major prerequisites for establishing our own trading platform with settlements in any of the BRICS currencies, and, in the longer term, in a special clearing currency in Russia or in any other jurisdiction with a healthy financial system and a freely convertible currency other than the USD," Zernin argues.
Yaroslav Lisovolik, founder of the BRICS+ company, considers it possible to establish a sectoral union or a grain platform within BRICS, if a supply and demand balance is ever achieved. "Obviously, we will see similar ambitions on the part of the Global South to set up alternative sectorial unions specializing in individual products," Lisovolik added.
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