Ukraine’s appetite for NATO membership appears to be waning even as the West robotically pledges even more aid to its proxy; the flap over US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s illness may cause blowback for the re-election campaign of his boss, President Joe Biden; and Pyongyang’s recent heated rhetoric is signaling a major shift in North Korea’s attitude toward the South. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Ukraine losing appetite for NATO membership as West pledges billions more in aid
The European Union continues to consider Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s so-called "peace formula" as the only way to settle the Ukraine crisis, Peter Stano, the European Commission’s Lead Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, told Izvestia. Essentially, the "formula" is the only approach being promoted by the West despite the fact that Moscow has rejected it as not reflective of the actual state of affairs. Experts insist that the strategy of European and Euro-Atlantic structures has hit a dead end. And while problems are already apparent with finding sources of further financing of the Kiev regime, the West is still pledging to provide Kiev with billions more in aid, according to the recent extraordinary meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council in Brussels. As for actually joining the North Atlantic Alliance, however, Kiev’s partners are now sounding a rather cautious tone in their promises, while Zelensky, for his part, would settle for even just "one concrete step" toward accession.
However, Zelensky managed to send certain signals to the alliance, arriving in Vilnius on the same day as the Brussels meeting. Ukraine’s accession to NATO was one of the major discussion points for Zelensky and his Lithuanian interlocutors. The Ukrainian leader claimed that he is awaiting at least "one concrete step" toward NATO at the alliance’s upcoming annual summit in Washington. Such toned-down rhetoric is in stark contrast to the maximalist attitude he exhibited before last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius.
Tensions in Europe are growing amid the uncertain fate of further Ukraine financing on the part of the US. Germany, for example, realizes that in a situation where Washington is increasingly less ready to spend money on Ukraine, it will prove impossible to fully support the Kiev regime relying solely on Europe’s own funds, German lawmaker Jan Nolte told Izvestia. That said, he stressed that the conflict with Russia and support for Ukraine have now become more a question of core values and ideological commitment for the West than a purely financial matter.
Stano stressed that the only option being considered by Brussels is the so-called "peace formula," which Zelensky is trying to promote on the global stage. It is clear that such a blinkered approach presumes keeping the arms supply pipeline going and rejecting peace talks.
"The thing is that the key underlying idea, within which proposals are being made for conducting a dialogue with Russia, pertains to the issue of territories. Under the Russian Constitution, the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions and the DPR [Donetsk People’s Republic] and LPR [Lugansk People’s Republic] are [an integral] part of Russia. And there cannot be any dialogue or discussion [on that point]. As a result, we are seeing a total dead end in the negotiating field here. Until the West changes its stance on this, any talks are simply out of the question," Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
The political scientist stated that the collective West is not ready to reach a moral compromise or to seek solutions toward achieving a full-fledged comprehensive settlement of the conflict and, therefore, it is obvious that the EU and NATO together and separately are still placing their bets on achieving results through the continuation of combat operations by their wholly subsidized Ukrainian proxy.
Vedomosti: Biden may face election blowback from flap over US Defense Secretary’s illness
The US media is now feasting on the latest wrinkle in the unfolding scandal over US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s hospital stay. On January 9, according to a press release from the Walter Reed Army Medical Center, it became known that Austin has prostate cancer. As reported earlier, however, the Pentagon chief failed to inform either US President Joe Biden or the Congress of his medical condition and need for hospitalization. Even his own deputy defense secretary, who was on vacation, was kept out of the loop on Austin’s condition. The situation and lax observance of chain-of-command notification protocols received bipartisan criticism, but the Republicans are using the flap to put increased pressure on the Biden administration in two areas.
The first directly pertains to Austin himself. On January 9, House of Representatives Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (Republican-Alabama) announced the launch of a formal investigation into the situation surrounding Austin’s hospitalization. The second involves Democratic incumbent Biden’s seemingly oblivious stance as the 2024 presidential election kicks into high gear. Specifically, the Republicans are accusing him of recklessness with regard to national security and of insufficient awareness of a key cabinet secretary’s activities.
According to lawyer Igor Slabykh, Austin’s impeachment by the Republicans is thus far an unlikely outcome. "He has not done anything warranting this procedure; not informing superiors of a hospital stay is absolutely no reason to be dismissed from office," the expert thinks.
Austin may remain in office until the presidential election in November, thinks Igor Shkrobtak, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. He explained that in the event of Austin resigning or being dismissed, he may be replaced either by a uniformed officer from one branch of the US military or by a civilian. "The pool of candidates is rather wide," the expert concluded.
The impact of the scandal on Biden’s re-election chances will be insignificant, thinks political strategist Pavel Dubravsky. The race is to win over undecided voters, for whom the health condition of cabinet members is not even among the top five voter concerns regarding the country’s major problems, the expert explained. He added that the Republicans will use any opportunity they can to get at Biden, however. "The narrative of Trump’s party is that Biden has not been in control of his own team or even himself for a long time. This rhetoric is being heated up by the news about Austin’s health issues," the expert explained.
Izvestia: Pyongyang’s heated rhetoric signals major shift in its attitude toward Seoul
Pyongyang is cardinally changing its rhetoric with regard to Seoul, rejecting the stance it has been adhering to for 70 years since the end of the Korean War. Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong Un has begun to publicly brand South Korea as the enemy even though only a year ago his influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, stated the opposite. Meanwhile, a sharp escalation has been occurring on the peninsula since the beginning of 2024 with the sides exchanging a series of shelling attacks.
"There is an overall rejection underway of some sort of a political fiction. There are no historical precedents for the reunification of two such different states. Different, above all, in terms of the quality of life, and, secondly, in terms of the political system. Seoul has also always known this perfectly well. Kim Jong Un has finally officially said that this policy had been an illusion and he is absolutely right in saying so. And from now on, North Korea will perceive South Korea as a separate hostile state," Andrey Lankov, professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, told Izvestia.
"The number of military drills that American forces are holding on South Korean soil is not diminishing in the very least. It is also possible that the Americans may wish for another hotspot of tensions to emerge, which would provide further fuel to keep the country’s military-industrial complex humming," said Kim Yong Un, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The experts think that relations between Pyongyang and Seoul may somewhat improve if former US President Donald Trump regains the White House in the US presidential election in November. During his presidency, the ties between North and South Korea were considered to be in a relative "thaw." The same shift may occur if the opposition wins South Korea’s parliamentary elections in April.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ecuador faces threat of criminal diktat as gangs challenge government
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has declared a regime of "internal armed conflict" and called in the armed forces to patrol the country’s streets. The situation in the South American country is increasingly beginning to resemble a civil war. The prison escapes of the leaders of Ecuador’s largest organized criminal gangs entailed a spate of prison riots with more than a hundred people still being held hostage by prison gangs.
"The situation is, indeed, difficult, otherwise it would have made no sense to bring in the army. Criminal groups have major clout in Ecuador, and this has been going on for a while. Yet what is happening now is unprecedented. The real problem is not even the activity of the gangsters, but the fact that the army is not equipped to deal with the drug cartels. The military does not have the skills that the police have," St. Petersburg State University Professor Viktor Heifets told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
He noted that the army’s actions against crime in Latin America often turn into violations of human rights, which only aids the criminals. "On the other hand, when the police are corrupt, there are practically no other options but to get the army involved. Yet not only force is needed; reforms are also necessary. For example, Noboa has to do something about the country’s prisons. Ecuador’s penitentiary system is an ‘open house.’ Escaping from jail there is frequently not a particularly difficult endeavor. I think that Noboa has a chance to succeed. He is being supported even by his recent political opponents, including former President Rafael Correa and his allies. In the event he manages to overcome the cartels, Noboa has major prospects ahead of him," the expert said.
Vedomosti: Russia sees shrinking number of companies with Western participation
Over the past few years, the number of companies in Russia with the participation of Western non-residents has shrunk rapidly. As at the end of 2023, there were 37% fewer such companies compared to the peak metric seen in 2017 (116,400 versus 185,000), according to a SPARK-Interfax assessment based on data from Russia’s Unified State Register of Legal Entities made available to Vedomosti. That said, despite Western players leaving Russia, over the past two years the rate of decrease has slowed down.
There are several reasons for the decrease in companies with foreign participation in the Russian market, said Ivan Yermokhin, a researcher at the Russian Center for Competencies and Analysis of OECD Standards under the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). This includes foreign companies leaving the Russian market, the restructuring of assets, re-domiciliation (i.e. leaving offshore zones for Russia) and changes in ownership structures and business models. That said, the number of foreign companies in Russia has been decreasing not over the past two years but since 2016-2018 and this trend has been driven by efforts aimed at the de-offshorization of the Russian economy, the expert noted.
The decrease in the number of companies with foreign participation is a natural reaction of foreign proprietors to the current sanctions regime, said Mikhail Nikolaev of the AKRA rating agency. De-offshorizing and re-orienting the economy toward the East partially help in smoothing out the negative consequences of this trend, he added.
According to Boris Kopeikin, first deputy director of the Center for Strategic Research, any isolation of the Russian market is out of the question. The growth of the number of companies with the participation of investors from China reflects the quick and successful redirection of Russian exports and imports toward the East Asian powerhouse, the expert said. "We are already selling and buying in China much more than a year or two ago; the trade volume has reached record highs in 2023 and will continue to rapidly grow," he said. In his opinion, in the near future, an increase in the number of companies with participants from Turkey, the Middle East and Southeast Asia should be expected as well.
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