South Africa’s genocide case before the ICJ will put a dent in Israel’s international reputation but is unlikely to force Tel Aviv’s military machine to cease and desist; the US and China have issued mutual warnings against interfering in this weekend’s presidential election in Taiwan; and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s Baltic tour highlights Kiev’s failure to recruit fresh allies. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Vedomosti: Pretoria’s genocide case to dent Israel’s reputation but unlikely to defang IDF
The United Nations’ International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague commenced hearings on January 11 on South Africa’s case against Israel over the latter’s alleged violations of the UN Convention on the Prevention of Genocide. Predictably, both Tel Aviv and Washington have dismissed Pretoria’s position as groundless, Vedomosti writes.
The ICJ hearing is an interim measure that is not intended to lead to a decision on the merits of the case just yet, Alexey Ispolinov, Doctor of Law and international law expert, noted. According to him, all of the court’s rulings are legally binding but, thus far, no global institutions have been created to enforce them. "This is why, earlier, the US and Iran ignored the court’s decisions. However, the model itself wherein an African nation files a genocide case is already well established in the court’s practice. So, Israel won’t be able to argue that the case was brought by a country, South Africa, that is not involved in the conflict [and thus has no ‘standing],’" the expert noted.
Russia in Global Affairs Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov pointed out that, as before, Tel Aviv will refuse to implement the ICJ’s recommendations but the move will have an impact on Israel’s reputation on the international stage. "The fact that a non-Arab and non-Muslim country filed a [genocide] case with the court is indicative of a deep-seated rejection of Israel’s actions across the world," he said.
The Israeli authorities will not change their policy toward the Palestinians, however, regardless of the court’s opinion, said Dmitry Maryasis, leading researcher with the Department of Israel Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies. "A team of Israeli lawyers will certainly try to push their own vision of the Palestine issue but the effort will largely be propagandistic. Tel Aviv is determined to resolutely fight against Hamas militants by all available means," no matter what any court may say, the expert stressed.
Media: Washington, Beijing issue mutual warnings against interfering in Taiwanese election
Neither the US nor China managed to refrain from resorting to harsh rhetoric ahead of Taiwan’s general election scheduled for January 13. According to the latest public opinion polling, the outcome of the presidential election still hangs in the balance and is far from being preordained, Vedomosti notes.
A poll conducted a week ago showed that incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te, presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and a supporter of independence and close ties with Washington, was running only slightly ahead of more China-friendly Kuomintang party candidate Hou Yu-ih, who calls for resuming dialogue with Beijing. Meanwhile, the US media is reporting about US President Joe Biden’s plans to send a bipartisan delegation to Taipei right after the island holds its election.
The decision to send another delegation to Taiwan is nothing unusual, Andrey Kortunov, academic director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), noted. Biden is seeking to show China that he is not going to deviate from Washington’s years-long policy of supporting Taiwan, as well as to deprive the opposition Republicans of the opportunity to criticize him for allegedly giving in to China. "The foreign policy signal is clear but the decision [to send a delegation] should also be considered in the context of the upcoming US presidential race," the expert explained.
There is no reason to expect Beijing to show any additional reaction to the US delegation’s visit, Yana Leksyutina, professor at St. Petersburg State University, pointed out. The outcome of the vote is far more important both for China and the rest of the world, she added. A victory for the DPP will mean, at the very least, a continued escalation of tensions, Leksyutina said.
Andrey Karneyev, head of the School of Asian Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that, "if the DPP wins, tensions could rise." "However, the party has been in power for two consecutive terms and it did not come to an armed conflict. The DPP would try to restore contact with China this time, too. However, a Kuomintang victory would reduce the degree of tension. Taipei would expand its economic ties with mainland China, also boosting person-to-person exchanges and tourism. Still, there would be no radical changes in Taiwan’s status," the expert added.
Izvestia: Zelensky’s Baltic tour highlights Kiev’s inability to recruit fresh allies
Kiev and its Western sponsors are finding it difficult to muster up new supporters to help push Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s so-called "peace formula," said experts interviewed by Izvestia. Ukraine is left to rely on countries that are relative lightweights on the international stage and thus cannot offer any significant assistance, namely the Baltic states.
On January 10-12, Zelensky is conducting a tour of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which, along with Poland, remain the most virulent supporters of increased military assistance to Ukraine. However, the meager scope of support that the three Baltic countries can offer Kiev leaves much to be desired.
Vladimir Vinokurov, professor at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy, believes that Zelensky’s visit to the Baltic states is first and foremost aimed at achieving propaganda goals and could be viewed as a PR stunt. "Estonia’s plans to provide 1.2 billion euros in aid [to Ukraine] will not save Zelensky," the expert noted. "There will be no real assistance, neither weapons nor equipment. As usual, there will only be flowery words of support," he added.
Zelensky’s Baltic tour is taking place a few days before the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The Swiss authorities have agreed to organize a major discussion of Ukraine’s "peace formula." The initiative, first announced by Zelensky in November 2022, calls for in particular the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and borders as of 1991 and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the new regions. Moscow has repeatedly stressed that it does not consider Kiev’s proposals serious as they are more like an ultimatum.
The US and its partners are unable to impose the Ukrainian "peace formula" on the leaders of the Global South because the world is no longer unipolar, Sergey Lunyov, professor at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), emphasized. According to him, India and the US, in particular, have diametrically opposing views of global political processes. New Delhi, Beijing and other BRICS members are simply not interested in propping up the West’s sagging hegemony, Lunyov stressed.
Izvestia: US seeking to legitimize outright theft of Russian assets
The United States is searching for a way to legitimize the outright theft of frozen Russian assets even though such a move would deal a blow to its own economy and image as a financial safe haven. After failing to agree with Congress on yet another aid package for Kiev, the administration of US President Joe Biden is backing a bill that would effectively make it possible to steal some $300 bln in Russian assets held in Western financial institutions, allegedly to be allocated toward the rebuilding of Ukraine. The move would be illegal without the legislative branch’s seal of approval but there are supporters of the initiative in both chambers of the US Congress, Izvestia writes.
The adoption of the bill would entail reputational and financial risks for the US itself. It may create a precedent for the use of such tools against other countries, as well. "It will be a signal to other nations, primarily to investors from China, which also has a difficult political relationship with the US. Once assets are frozen, they can be seized if political grounds emerge for taking such a step," Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Director General Ivan Timofeyev pointed out.
However, the Americans will probably try "to sell" it as a special, one-off mechanism targeted only against Russia, the expert went on to say. In addition, much depends not so much on the precise legal mechanisms chosen but on the actual practice of their application. If it concerns tens of billions of dollars, then it sends a very serious message, but if the assets are seized incrementally, in a bit-by-bit fashion, it is unlikely to scare investors away.
"The policy of unilateral measures involving illegal methods has become one of the most common ones in recent decades. It became clear as early as the beginning of last year that they will start to seize the assets. This was when such transactions were conducted with regard to the assets of private companies and on a very small scale. Since the Western legal system is based on precedent, there are reasons to believe that the West will eventually go after the big jackpot," Yekaterina Entina, head of the Center for Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, said.
Media: Bitcoin makes US stock market debut with SEC’s ETF approval
Investor sentiment is upbeat about the start of trading in US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), with the leading cryptocurrency rising to two-year highs. However, experts expect the cryptocurrency market to become more volatile in the short term, Kommersant notes.
The continuing high inflation rate in the US increases the risk of stagflation (the combination of economic stagnation and high inflation) in case the prime interest rate remains high, Anton Toroptsev, regional director at CommEX, said. In his view, investors may use bitcoin as a tool to hedge against risks and maximize the profitability of their investment portfolios.
The decision by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve bitcoin-based ETFs points to the global financial market’s readiness to accept the risks from granting cryptocurrencies access to the traditional financial system, Stanislav Akulinkin, director general of the Transcript joint stock company, told Vedomosti. According to him, it will give rise to an investment flow to the cryptocurrency industry in general.
The investment community is currently watching as governments and the crypto industry converge toward each other, Oleg Ushakov, director general of the Sagrada Legal law firm and chairman of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Commission on Digital Financial Assets, said.
Regulatory approval of such an investment vehicle in Russia would be quite a complicated matter, however, Alevtina Kamelkova, managing partner at Findustrial Consulting Group, pointed out. The issue comes under the regulatory purview of the Central Bank, the Finance Ministry, the Federal Tax Service, the Energy Ministry, the Federal Financial Monitoring Service and other relevant government agencies, she explained. However, the expert does not rule out that the SEC’s move to approve bitcoin ETFs may speed up the regulation of cryptocurrencies in Russia. While Russian regulators are well aware of the recent developments in the US, Akulinkin noted, they are unlikely to change their policy framework aimed at restricting the spread of cryptocurrency in the domestic Russian market.
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