The US and Israel are seeking to provoke Iran into a war; ex-US President Donald Trump is off to a good start in the US presidential marathon with his resounding Iowa caucuses win; and Pyongyang plans to cut all ties with Seoul. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.  

Izvestia: US, Israel seeking to provoke Iran into war in replay of Ukraine scenario

The US and Israel are attempting to provoke Iran into a direct confrontation following a series of attacks on Tehran’s regional allies. This is reminiscent of the West’s tactics in stage-managing the Ukraine crisis scenario, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to benefit from a spiral toward confrontation at this point as the West could seek to leverage such tensions to justify its overall actions in the Middle East.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out a massive missile strike on Iraq’s Kurdistan region and Syria in the early hours of January 16. Tehran said the attack had hit an office of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency as well as the base camps of armed groups in Syria that are involved in carrying out terrorist activities against Iran.

Tehran has been supporting Palestinian resistance since the recent war between Israel and Hamas started on October 7. Still, Iran has refrained from getting into an open confrontation with the West, even as a terrorist attack was perpetrated inside Iran and several key Hamas and IRGC commanders have been killed over the past two months.

"The West is trying to provoke Iran to take drastic, impulsive steps. The same policy is being pursued in Ukraine, where strikes on civilians in the Russian city of Belgorod are aimed at disrupting Moscow’s strategic balance," Asian studies expert Roland Bidzhamov pointed out. All of these events are based on the same playbook, with the underlying goal of prodding the adversary toward taking the first step so as to make it look like the instigator of the conflict in the eyes of the international community, the expert explained.

In the meantime, Iran’s strikes clearly show that Tehran has no intention of sitting idly by amid attacks on itself and its allies, Middle East expert Ihab Nafea emphasized. Tensions in the region can be expected to rise further in the coming days. The West and Israel will try to force Iran to enter the war through a series of attacks on its territory and allies. The recent developments should be viewed as an act of provocation against Tehran aimed at further demonizing it on the international stage, the analyst stressed.

Media: Trump off to good start in US presidential marathon with decisive first win

The key Midwestern farm state of Iowa has held the first Republican Party caucuses (gatherings of party activists) in the 2024 US election cycle to select the party’s nominee in the November presidential vote. Former President Donald Trump secured a decisive landslide victory over his GOP rivals, gaining more than half of the vote, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

However, the presidential primaries are only just beginning and unexpected twists and turns are still possible. Nikolay Popov, leading research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, pointed out that, in recent years, virtually no candidate who started off with a win in the Iowa caucuses had gone on to win the entire primaries sweepstakes. The expert also emphasized that Trump was set to face more lawsuits, which could also adversely affect his election campaign.

However, Doctor of Law Alexander Domrin believes that there are few real obstacles that could actually stop Trump in his tracks and prevent him from reaching the final round of the election. "The Republicans crave revenge. If Trump does not go to jail and stays alive, it will be him who will stand for the Republican Party in the November 5 vote, even though party functionaries despise him," the expert noted.

Lev Sokolshchik, researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, told Izvestia that "a number of factors are playing into Trump’s hand." "He already has some political experience and maintains significant influence in the Republican Party, as well as considerable control over processes within the party. The outcome of the caucuses highlights Trump’s clear leading position in the inter-party race," the expert said.

Konstantin Blokhin, leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Center for Security Studies, argues that the next US president will be a Republican. "Everyone is tired of the Democrats, and the Democratic Party in fact has no convincing candidates because [incumbent President Joe] Biden has discredited himself and risks going down in history as [America’s] most unsuccessful president," the analyst said. According to him, "today, there is not a single candidate among either the Republicans or the Democrats who can match Trump’s popularity, charisma and level of recognition."

Izvestia: Pyongyang announces plans to cut all ties with Seoul, naming it 'main enemy'

North Korea intends to completely cut ties with the South, designating it as its "permanent main enemy" in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) constitution. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has also announced plans to enshrine the goal of "completely occupying" the neighboring state in case of war, Izvestia writes.

Pyongyang links threats coming from South Korea with the United States’ activities, namely growing military cooperation between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo. Russia shares the same position. At a meeting with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Moscow on January 16, top Russian diplomat Sergey Lavrov stated that "the policy of the US and its satellites, aimed at creating security threats for North Korea, does not help resolve the region’s problems."

North Korea regards joint drills involving the US, South Korea and Japan as a rehearsal for a future invasion. This is how Pyongyang justifies its weapons trials, including the test launches of ballistic rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads. "North Korea’s nuclear disarmament is out of the question. It will remain a nuclear power, continuing efforts to strengthen its nuclear potential as much as possible. Until recently, the country’s nuclear capabilities were largely defensive but, now, there are reasons to believe that the North Korean leadership wants to turn them into offensives ones, even though it will take a lot of time to achieve that goal," Andrey Lankov, professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, said.

Despite a new round of aggressive rhetoric, experts do not see a clear threat behind the statements made by the North Korean authorities. "On the one hand, this acceptance of reality closes the channels for direct cooperation but, on the other, it creates a tough but effective model of mutual deterrence similar to the way the Soviet Union and the US deterred each other during the Cold War. An arms race was underway and numerous bellicose statements were made but none of the parties crossed the line," said Konstantin Asmolov, leading research fellow at the Korean Studies Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia.

Vedomosti: Russia ramps up LNG sales to India, Turkey, seeks new customers further afield

India, Turkey and Greece are increasing Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports faster than other countries amid a drop in purchases by a number of unfriendly countries in 2023, Vedomosti writes, citing data from Kpler.

Russian LNG exports to Turkey rose almost 1.4-fold last year compared to 2022, while supplies to India were up 1.5-fold. In Europe, exports to Greece skyrocketed with a 4.5-fold rise. In addition, Russia sent its first LNG batch in five years to Brazil in 2023. Meanwhile, supplies to China grew by 14% last year, making the country the No. 1 importer of Russian LNG.

Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman points out that increasing Russian LNG exports to Greece and Turkey stem from higher production at Gazprom’s facility in the Leningrad Region. Meanwhile, India may become one of the major markets for Russian LNG in the future, Kaufman said. He does not rule out that gas from the Arctic LNG 2 project will go to the Indian market.

However, China will be one of the key export destinations amid falling supplies to Europe, Kaufman went on to say. Ronald Smith, a senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, also sees potential for the further growth of exports to China because "there are no political barriers" to such supplies and the country’s demand for gas keeps rising.

LNG exports to Brazil largely depend on the weather, Smith noted. In drought years, the country seeks to more actively generate electricity from natural gas in addition to the hydropower sector, he explained. Kaufman, in turn, views Pakistan and Vietnam as potential new markets for Russian LNG.

 Vedomosti: Niger seeking to diversify foreign relations with premier’s Moscow visit

Nigerien Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine has arrived on a visit to Moscow. He was appointed by the military, which came to power in a coup in July 2023. The Nigerien head of government has already met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, who emphasized the need to boost trade and economic ties, Vedomosti notes.

After almost six months in power, Niger’s military is feeling relatively safe on the international stage, Grigory Lukyanov, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Asian and Eastern Studies, said. Despite sanctions and the lack of formal recognition, there ultimately was no military intervention by Niger’s neighbors in West African bloc ECOWAS and the US is not demonstrating any extreme hostility toward the new authorities in Niamey, Lukyanov noted.

Apart from defense cooperation, the Nigerien authorities need to expand economic ties with new partners in order to attract capital, technology and solutions for modernizing the country, the expert explained. "Efforts are underway to lay a new foundation of the country’s foreign relations. This may benefit Russia and Turkey, which compete with the West and oppose France’s presence in Africa," he stressed.

Lukyanov pointed out that the lack of formal recognition of the military government was no obstacle for Niger’s high-level ties with Russia, similar to the situation around Libya and Afghanistan’s Taliban (designated as a terrorist group and outlawed in Russia).

Niger, which depends on external aid, has found itself in a difficult situation where Niamey is looking to Moscow as an alternative to Western assistance, said Natalya Piskunova, associate professor in the Department of World Politics at Moscow State University. "For Russia, Niger is interesting in terms of the possibility to strengthen its influence in West Africa, where Moscow is a relatively new player, as well as diversify its exports, namely of various food products. It’s also possible to develop cooperation in the field of transport and logistics," the expert added.

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