The ongoing war in the Gaza Strip may have a knock-on effect by reigniting long-simmering conflicts across Southwest Asia; Ukraine is increasing its use of drones to target Russian oil sector facilities; and China's air force and navy are conducting large-scale military patrols near Taiwan following the island’s elections. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Gaza war heats up longstanding conflicts across region as permanent crisis looms
Pakistan's attack on Iran on January 18 could spark a new wave of escalation in that corner of the Middle East, compounding the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip. Experts told Izvestia they see the risk that such localized conflicts may potentially reignite several longstanding sore spots in relations between countries in Southwest Asia, perhaps even leading to the rapid radicalization of the situation. The Middle East may be a tinder box that is now bracing for an all-out conflict, the newspaper writes.
On the night of January 18, Pakistan launched a huge air strike on "terrorist hideouts" in Iran as part of Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar, killing nine individuals. Among other things, fighting erupted near the Pakistani-Iranian border, where Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Colonel Hossein Ali Javdanfar was killed. These strikes came in response to Tehran's two-day-old missile attacks on border territories under the jurisdiction of Islamabad.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Gaza Strip has exacerbated longstanding territorial disputes and conflicts in other parts of Southwest Asia, particularly between Iran and Pakistan. Many believe that the precarious situation in the Palestinian enclave played a significant role in sparking the present conflict, the newspaper writes.
"Tension at one location caused tension at another. The fighting in Gaza has undoubtedly had an impact, and a wider chain of instability is growing. There are separatist movements in [the borderline Iranian province of] Sistan and Baluchestan, as well as an anti-terrorist operation by Iran. At the same time, this demonstrates that Iran is sending strong messages to the entire region and the world community that it is not frightened and is prepared to escalate," Middle East area expert Roland Bidzhamov told Izvestia.
Moreover, outside powers may be seeking to take advantage of the situation to escalate the conflict. The analyst added that there are currently no fundamental reasons for such rivalry and hostilities between these countries.
However, the situation may be exacerbated by a form of chain reaction where local tensions serve to "pick the scab" covering long-simmering problems affecting the entire region, resulting in a severe radicalization of relations between the area’s countries. That is, the conflict in the Gaza Strip may be serving to rub salt in unhealed wounds, thus potentially leading to a state of permanent crisis, according to the expert.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ukraine targets Russian oil terminals with drone attacks
Kiev continues to use unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to attack critical targets deep inside of Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. For the first time since the start of the special military operation, on Thursday night Russian air defenses intercepted an aircraft-type UAV over the Leningrad Region. According to media reports, a Ukrainian drone was destroyed near the St. Petersburg Oil-Loading Terminal at the Great Port of St. Petersburg. On January 18, a number of countries proposed forming an "artillery coalition" to supply ammunition and artillery units to the Ukrainian army.
"Combat experience has shown that Russian air defense systems can destroy Ukrainian long-range drones, including the AQ-400 Scythe. Strikes are also being launched at the locations where they were produced," military analyst Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yuri Netkachev told the newspaper. He added that, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian leaders requested assistance in improving the country's air defenses during meetings with US and NATO officials.
The day before, Germany announced a new package of military support for Ukraine, including 20 Marder infantry combat vehicles, reconnaissance tactical UAVs, and 15 Gepard SPAAG anti-aircraft self-propelled cannons, all of which were designed to perform tactical air defense operations.
"Ukraine is expecting new shipments of air defense systems, tactical high-precision weapons, and armored vehicles, but not large amounts of long-range attack UAVs, because the West does not want hostilities to spill over into Russian territory. However, spare parts and technologies for the manufacture of such drones are surreptitiously delivered to Ukraine in huge quantities, and Ukrainian specialists then assemble them," Netkachev noted.
Meanwhile, the issue of large-scale financial assistance is still of critical importance to Kiev. "After Zelensky's idea of confiscating frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine was rejected at the [World] Economic Forum in Davos, Western countries are now devising new strategies for [financially] supporting Kiev," military expert Colonel (Ret.) Nikolay Shulgin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Izvestia: China keeping closer eye on Taiwan after island’s presidential election
The situation surrounding Taiwan, where a pro-American candidate won the presidential election on January 13, has already begun to deteriorate, Izvestia writes. Taiwan's military reported that the Chinese air force and navy carried out large-scale combat patrols near the island. Meanwhile, the Chinese government maintains that it will not abandon the option of using force to seize control of the island, and Washington continues to antagonize Beijing by sending US officials on junkets to Taipei.
According to the Western media, Beijing's current less aggressive strategy may be the "calm before the storm," with the country relying more on diplomatic than military pressure. Almost immediately following the Taiwan presidential and parliamentary elections, the authorities of the Pacific island nation of Nauru declared the termination of diplomatic relations with Taipei and the establishment of formal ties with Beijing. In the spring of 2023, the Central American country of Honduras issued a similar declaration. Thus, the number of governments that recognize Taiwan's legal authorities has been reduced to 12, with only three remaining in the Asia-Pacific region: the Marshall Islands, Palau and Tuvalu.
"The remaining countries with connections to Taiwan consist of a small circle of [island] nations that are already under significant pressure from the United States. China may still succeed in plucking this or that Pacific island nation [out of the US orbit], but it would be challenging. Little is changing due to the US interfering in the matter," Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), told Izvestia. Exercises by China’s People’s Liberation Army in the region will most likely continue, he added.
China has consistently demanded that the United States clarify its position on Taiwan. In addition to official contacts, Washington also supplies Taipei with weapons in the event of a "invasion" by mainland China, with supplies totaling more than $14 bln. Furthermore, the US is using Taiwan as a base to maintain its influence in the area.
"The Chinese economy is a vital component of the global economy, with the United States at the top of the food chain. They will not give up Taiwan, which is a significant instrument of pressure on China. In terms of forceful action, a provocation may happen, and as the saying goes, someone's nerves will snap. However, this enterprise carries significant risks and losses for China," Kirill Kotkov, head of the Center for the Study of Far Eastern Countries in St. Petersburg, told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Recalcitrant US Republicans still rejecting Biden’s demands for Ukraine funding
On the night of January 17-18, Moscow time, US President Joe Biden met at the White House with the leadership of both parties in Congress, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (Democrat-New York) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican-Louisiana). The parties discussed an additional $105.85 bln aid package, which included military assistance for Ukraine ($61.4 bln), Taiwan and Israel, as well as funds earmarked for beefing up security on the US southern border with Mexico, Vedomosti writes.
The Biden administration attempted to persuade the Republican leadership one more time that funding for Kiev was critical. In response, Johnson emphasized that continuing support for Ukraine is conceivable only if Biden and the Democrats make compromises on immigration reform, as well as clarify the administration's policy on Ukraine and establish checks to monitor and audit how allocated funds are actually being spent.
The United States provided the most recent $250 mln aid package to Ukraine at the end of December 2023, using money originally approved for 2022. In October, anticipating that allocated funds would run out by the end of the year, Biden requested that Congress approve a fresh $61.4 bln tranche of money for Kiev as part of a larger package totaling $105.85 bln.
Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), believes that bipartisan approval for further assistance to Ukraine in the near future is increasingly unlikely. First, the Democrats are unwilling to budge on the matter of making concessions on the border issue, as the Republicans are insisting. Second, the far right-wing of the GOP understands that the majority of their supporters oppose allocating extra money to Ukraine, and therefore they are attempting to make aid approval exceedingly improbable, at least during the election season. At the same time, Zhuravleva added that the Republican Party's leadership is still willing to consider supporting Kiev if the parties can reach an agreement on a full budget by March.
Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, agrees that the question of financing Kiev will not be resolved until federal budget disagreements are settled. According to the expert, no progress toward increased funding for Ukraine should be expected before March. He also underlined that the closer former President Donald Trump gets to clinching the Republican nomination, the more difficult it will be for the Democrats to put pressure on the Republicans on foreign policy matters.
Vedomosti: Phosagro forecasts 2-2.5% growth in global fertilizer sales
The trend for recovery in worldwide fertilizer use that began in 2023 will continue this year, Vedomosti writes, citing a forecast provided by Phosagro, one of Russia's largest fertilizer producers.
Andrey Ryabinin, head of marketing at Phosagro, spoke with Vedomosti on January 18 about the continuing expansion of fertilizer sales for the agricultural sector in 2024. The company’s representative told the newspaper that it expects global market growth of another 2-2.5% in 2024. According to the company’s estimates, consumption reached 190 mln tons in 2023, accounting for 100% of the nutrient. Thus, the global market volume this year may range between 194 mln and 195 mln tons.
Ryabinin reported, citing statistics from consultancy agencies and the International Fertilizer Association, that global demand in 2023 grew by 2-3% in comparison with 2022.
Vasily Danilov, leading analyst at Veles Capital Investment Company, noted that the present price of phosphate fertilizers is much lower than the peak values of $1,000 per metric ton in the spring of 2022, as well as previous years. According to the expert, this pricing level does not allow for excessive profits, but manufacturers "feel comfortable" and are posting high EBITDA margins.
Ryabinin predicted that phosphate fertilizer prices will remain stable in the first half of 2024. Manufacturers from China may return to the market in the second half of the year, but he does not anticipate a significant price decline. According to him, nitrogen fertilizer prices will remain volatile.
Dmitry Puchkarev, stock market specialist at BCS World of Investments, told the newspaper that China will be the key market participant determining fertilizer prices this year.
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