NATO is set to launch its largest exercise since the Cold War in what observers see as a dress rehearsal for a direct military conflict with Russia; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a plan for a Palestinian state, despite Western objections; and Russia’s agribusiness sector is reviewing the potential risks of the latest round of US restrictions, this time on Russian food exports. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Media: NATO’s malign maneuvers seen as dress rehearsal for doing direct battle with Russia
NATO’s largest exercise since the Cold War, Steadfast Defender 2024, kicks off in Europe this week. The drills will last four months and involve 90,000 troops from all 31 member nations of the North Atlantic Alliance, as well as candidate member Sweden. Moreover, NATO is making it absolutely clear that the maneuvers will be aimed at practicing moves to wage a direct, head-to-head confrontation with Russia as the bloc ups the ante amid abysmal failure by its proxy army in Ukraine.
Simultaneously, there has been increasingly more rhetoric in Europe and the United States about a direct military conflict with Russia on the battlefield. "A situation where an enemy is being conjured up is leading directly to a revival of the very idea of maintaining NATO as a counterweight [to that purported threat]. In addition, this will inevitably result in increased defense spending," Viktor Mizin, researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, Royal Netherlands Navy Admiral Rob Bauer, who chairs the NATO Military Committee, warned on Thursday that the governments and populations of NATO countries should ready themselves for a larger war with Russia, which he said will demand a major large-scale mobilization of the populations and industrial capacities of NATO member states over the next two decades.
According to Ilya Kramnik, researcher with the Center for Strategic Planning Studies at IMEMO RAS, bringing back the infrastructure for a military draft and call-up would be a minor concern for NATO’s European members, and the process of reintroducing or expanding the military conscription bureaucracy as well as readjusting the relevant administrative processes would require little more than a year or two at most. But, "properly equipping such conscripts could prove far more problematic," Kramnik told Vedomosti.
For the time being, NATO armies are capable, at best, of providing the availability of first-line forces if a major conflict erupts on the alliance’s eastern flank, the expert argues. Judging from the case of Germany, however, only sparse arsenals are available given their depletion from NATO’s ongoing assistance for Ukraine, he continues. "The Europeans would need to restart and expand their defense industrial complex to have the genuine capacity to revive their military mobilization posture, which is a mission that would take many years to carry out," Kramnik emphasized.
Vedomosti: Netanyahu rejects plan for establishing Palestinian state to West’s chagrin
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on Saturday that he would "not compromise on full Israeli control" over the entire territories west of the Jordan River, acknowledging that this stance "contravenes [the idea of establishing] a Palestinian state."
Prior to that, the Israeli head of government said at a news conference on January 18 that he had made his position clear to the United States, rejecting any Palestinian statehood as a post-war scenario. According to Netanyahu, the majority of Israeli citizens oppose the idea of establishing a sovereign Palestinian state led by the West Bank-based Palestinian National Authority. And, on the next day, he and US President Joe Biden held their first telephone conversation in almost a month, in which the US leader pressed on with his rhetoric about creating a Palestinian state.
Netanyahu’s provocative statements are intended for consumption by a domestic Israeli audience, Dmitry Mariyasis, leading researcher with the Department of Israel Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, said. "While a part of the elite is committed to the idea of establishing an independent Palestinian state, others believe that the [window of] time for this has been lost. <…> Much will depend on the outcome of the war," he said, adding that resolving the Palestinian issue politically would depend on both the Israelis and the Palestinians themselves.
According to Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) expert Kirill Semyonov, Israel is seeking to create a new status quo in the region that would enable its military to retain control of the Palestinian territories, while envisaging a limited Palestinian self-government without establishing a sovereign Palestinian state. For the time being, an Israeli siege of the southern areas of the Palestinian enclave in Gaza will continue, accompanied with sporadic air raids, the expert maintains. "How long such a policy will last would depend on how the Arab world responds, as sooner or later they may have had enough and move to take a tougher stance," he concluded.
Later on Monday, EU foreign ministers will discuss a preliminary 10-point plan developed by the bloc’s chief diplomat to end the Gaza conflict, Euractiv reported. The draft document proposes holding a "preparatory peace conference" with the participation of the EU, the United States, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Arab League and the United Nations, after which a peace plan should be outlined within a year’s time.
Kommersant: Russia weighs risks of more US restrictions
The No Russian Agricultural Act, a new piece of anti-Russian US legislation passed by the lower chamber US House of Representatives, if enacted would require the US Treasury Department to direct US representatives at international financial institutions to promote, where possible, investments that reduce global dependence on Russian agriculture, including grain, and encourage private investments, according to the website of the US Congress.
Agroexport, a state-owned provider of consulting services to farmers at the Russian Agriculture Ministry, has launched a probe into how the US initiative would affect the Russian market as it surveys the views of market players to introduce a framework for potential international dispute resolution.
Marat Samarsky, an advisor at Verba Legal, believes that Agroexport is evidently working toward "formulating Russia’s response" to potential restrictions. Russian agribusiness still has time for that as the US bill must still be approved by both houses of the US Congress and then be signed into law by the president before taking effect. "And this is a difficult path, to put it mildly," Samarsky emphasized. If the bill is enacted, however, proceedings at the World Trade Organization would be launched and a removal of trade barriers would have to be negotiated, but "such disputes stand little chance" of taking place anyway, he explains.
According to Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, while, thus far, Russian food has not been directly sanctioned, the latest US bill "may signal a potential reversal." The initiative is still in its early stages, but it "can already be viewed as a recommendation not to deal with Russian food exports," he said, even while key buyers of Russian food are already fully incorporated into the global financial system.
An industry official told Kommersant that pressure from the United States has already delayed payments for grain, for example, on the part of Egypt. "There will perhaps be more pressure, and discounts for Russian supplies may widen," he warned.
Izvestia: Chief designer comments on project to roll out Russia’s new orbital station
The first team of cosmonauts will start work at Russia’s new orbital station as early as in 2028, chief designer of the project, Vladimir Kozhevnikov, told Izvestia in an interview. By that time, three basic modules to enable research, power generation and gateways will be docked with the station in orbit, which will make it possible to pilot the station, he said.
So far, the Energia space industry company has completed work on developing the final document, which comprises more than 1,500 volumes, Kozhevnikov added as he described the project as the largest in Russian cosmonautics in the past 30 years. The draft design of the Russian Orbital Station (ROS) has been examined by the leading research bodies at state space corporation Roscosmos and submitted to the latter for approval. "We hope that it will be greenlighted in early February," Kozhevnikov said.
According to him, at the next stage, state contracts will have to be signed and the process to build the ROS and its ground-based infrastructure, as well as necessary carrier rockets, and cosmonaut training will begin.
The ROS is a systemic project involving quite a few programs and subprograms, Kozhevnikov said. In all, at least 100 Russian companies and some 200,000 highly qualified experts will take part, he specified.
The ROS could as well control fleets of satellites, Kozhevnikov continued. In addition, it will be very powerful in terms of energy, with large solar panels generating 54 kW for its own consumption. By comparison, the Russian segment of the International Space Station (ISS) currently uses as little as 6 kW, which is barely enough to boil three kettles. And the ROS is expected to have a 120 V voltage, while the Russian cosmonauts on the ISS use 28 V. Thanks to its resources, the ROS will have much greater capabilities than any minor spacecraft, he concluded.
Vedomosti: Export prices for Russian cast iron hit highest level since April 2023
Export prices for Russian cast iron rose to $400 per metric ton, according to the latest data from Metals & Mining Intelligence (MMI), as seen by Vedomosti. In the first 10 days of January, Russian suppliers offered a metric ton for $420 to $440, depending on quality, while "the working level" of cast iron prices was somewhat lower, standing at $395 to $415, the report reads.
Not all Russian suppliers export their cast iron, with some steelmakers preferring to increase their own cast iron consumption, MMI said. This, too, has kept export prices higher.
MMI Director General Valeria Kalashnikova explained to Vedomosti that Russian steelmakers had succeeded in increasing export prices for cast iron after the situation in end markets improved across key export routes since November 2023 amid stronger demand and rising global prices.
However, MMI analysts doubt that next spring export prices could reverse back to the price levels seen last March, when cast iron sold for as much as $465 per metric ton. Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management, agrees, even though he, too, sees an increase in export prices.
A source familiar with the dynamics and geography of Russian cast iron exports told Vedomosti that the bulk of Russian exporters have stopped selling to Europe. As a result, the European market is seeing a deficit, while prices of cast iron are rising. A source at a steelmaker said that Russian companies are currently reducing the export of cast iron as they are prioritizing using it in their own steelmaking operations instead.
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