The West sent out a trial balloon for a potential dialogue with Russia as Switzerland offered to mediate a settlement to the Ukraine conflict; the US appears ready to unfreeze the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey after Ankara finally gave its nod to NATO membership for Sweden; and world opinion is solidly behind the creation of a Palestinian state despite Israel’s stubbornly intransigent stance. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News agency.

Izvestia: West launches Swiss trial balloon for potential dialogue with Russia on Ukraine

Statements by Switzerland indicating Bern’s willingness to assist in the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, announced by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a press conference at the UN headquarters in New York, represent a trial balloon by the West as it attempts to leave the door open for prospective negotiations, potentially using Switzerland as a mediator, experts told Izvestia. Nevertheless, the consensus view sees no real grounds to argue that the West is seeking an actual discussion between Russia and Ukraine.

During his visit to the UN, Lavrov met with his Swiss counterpart, Ignazio Cassis. According to Lavrov, Cassis attempted to persuade him that Bern was willing to serve as a mediator in the conflict with Ukraine. However, Lavrov pointed out that Switzerland's potential role as a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian dispute is complicated by the traditionally neutral Alpine country's own recent strategy, which has prioritized reinforcing European security structures not in conjunction with Russia, but against it.

Switzerland is attempting to strengthen its status as a neutral state, according to Valdai Discussion Club expert Igor Istomin, who is director of the Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University). "The country is traditionally proud of its neutrality and is trying to maintain some demonstration of its special position even in conditions where it has joined sanctions against Russia and is pursuing a policy that is in line with the Western course," he told Izvestia.

In light of the near-total breakdown of diplomatic dialogue between Russia and the West, Dmitry Danilov, head of the European Security Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Europe, believes that the United States and Europe must keep the door open for future negotiations. In this light, Switzerland is a good candidate to be a communications channel.

Nonetheless, it is difficult to argue that the West is genuinely seeking to foster an actual discussion between Russia and Ukraine, just as it is difficult to believe that Kiev’s international partners are attempting to persuade Switzerland to begin the search for potential peace deals. "In order to conduct mediation negotiations and come up with such an initiative, it is necessary to at least identify some points for negotiations, but they didn't do this," Sergey Ordzhonikidze, former UN deputy secretary general and former deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told the newspaper. "Switzerland is practicing its mediation capacities in order to shift away from its [recent] pro-Western stance and back toward the neutrality that the country is traditionally known for," the expert added.

Vedomosti: Washington may OK transfer of F-16s to Turkey after Ankara’s NATO nod to Sweden

Late in the evening on January 25, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan officially confirmed Ankara’s ratification of the protocol for approving Sweden's NATO membership application, which had been passed the day before by the country's Grand National Assembly (parliament), according to official Turkish newspaper Resmi Gazete. Thus, according to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, by approving the ratification of Sweden's NATO application, Erdogan has fulfilled the necessary condition for unfreezing the sale of US F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.

The US ambassador to Ankara indirectly verified information reported by Reuters and The New York Times that US President Joe Biden sent a letter to Congress on the night of January 25 requesting approval of the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Erdogan has consistently linked approval of Sweden's NATO candidacy to Ankara’s purchase of the F-16s from the US.

According to Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute for US and Canadian Studies, Congress will approve the sale of the F-16s, clearing the way for Sweden's NATO membership. According to him, there is a consensus among major US political figures on this topic. "The [sale of F-16s] is in the interests of the United States, as Ankara remains a vital partner in the Black Sea region and the Middle East. Continuing the conflict with [Ankara] would only result in image and reputational impairment," he said.

At the same time, Vasiliev continued, Washington will maintain its "two keys" policy: by approving the supply of weapons to Turkey, Washington will keep Ankara "on a short leash," linking the sale of the new consignment of aircraft to the process of resolving Ankara’s relations with Tel Aviv, which deteriorated following the start of Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip in October 2023.

Ankara faces severe challenges in modernizing the Turkish air force in light of the possibilities for neighbor and long-time rival Greece to upgrade its air arsenal, including with French assistance, Alina Vernigora, junior researcher at the Center for the Study of Strategic Planning at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told the newspaper. According to the expert, the Turkish establishment will present the likelihood that the sale of F-16s will now be unfrozen not as a success, but as a necessary "commitment to NATO bloc discipline," similar to Ankara’s lukewarm support for Sweden's membership bid.

Izvestia: World opinion behind creation of Palestinian state despite Israeli intransigence

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Egypt and Jordan recently submitted a post-conflict settlement proposal for the Gaza Strip. The idea was sponsored by the United States, which has consistently underlined the need for an independent Palestinian state. The EU advocates the same thing, along with Russia and China. However, despite almost universal agreement, the "two peoples - two states" proposal may still be a long way away from being implemented, Izvestia writes.

The day after the Arab governments' announcement, foreign ministers from the EU met with Israeli and Palestinian officials, announcing a European settlement plan, which includes the practical application of the two-state concept. However, as the European press reports, Brussels' peace effort, like all previous ones, was met with the Israeli authorities’ categorical refusal to even initiate conversations on the subject. As a response, the EU reportedly began discussing sanctions against Israel.

The Israelis' steadfast opposition to the creation of an independent Palestine is not unique to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership. This is part of the overall political culture, Middle East expert Andrey Ontikov told Izvestia.

"When talks in the West repeatedly focus on the necessity of implementing the two-state principle, it is difficult to fathom how they will do that. If Netanyahu talks about Palestinian statehood tomorrow, his future will be predictable. After the inquiry into the events of October 7 is completed, his political career will either end on the street, at best, or at worst - in prison," the analyst contends.

Hamas’ surprise terrorist attack, the subsequent military operation, and the large number of civilian losses have all contributed to a gradual shift in public attitudes in Washington and Brussels. However, no action has been taken yet. According to Ontikov, if the Europeans and Americans truly wanted to promote the idea of a two-state solution, they could put some pressure on Israel's leadership. "There is no evidence of this. Moreover, Israel continues to be supplied with numerous armaments. Obviously, to maintain hostilities. It looks ridiculous," he added.

According to Grigory Lukyanov, senior lecturer at the Department of Middle East Countries of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the State Agrarian University of Humanities, the main political forces in Palestine are losing popular support, and this ongoing issue complicates the settlement process. At the same time, Israel will never be satisfied with the security mechanisms that the United States or Arab countries can offer them, Lukyanov emphasized.

Vedomosti: US Senate begins deliberations on bill for confiscation of Russian assets

The US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations has approved a bill that would authorize the seizure and use of the Central Bank of Russia’s frozen foreign reserves and other Russian sovereign assets to assist Ukraine and for "other purposes." Twenty of the committee's 21 members voted in favor, while only Senator Rand Paul (Republican-Kentucky) spoke out against it. At the same time, the US Senate does not yet have ready-made tools for implementing the idea, Vedomosti writes.

According to Ivan Timofeyev, director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), among Western countries only Canada has a framework in place to confiscate Russian assets as of January 2024. The expert stated that in the US, the equivalent legal mechanism could only be applied to assets involved in criminal proceedings. As a result, the US authorities are currently legally unable to actually seize the frozen assets.

The White House is unlikely to be interested in the enactment of new laws that would limit its room for maneuver in potential bargaining with Russia, according to the expert: "Therefore, the bill may be passed by Congress, but the president will have broad discretion in how to implement it. Although this scenario is not ideal, because each new president can interpret and execute the legislation in their own unique way, and the law itself would be extremely tough to repeal," he said.

Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), told Vedomosti that the EU countries are taking a more cautious approach. "We are talking about very large assets; caution is logical and understandable, as well as fear of Russia's reaction," he said. The expert emphasized that the benefit to the EU from confiscation is only considerable in the short term, and that in the medium and long term, it may raise concerns about the European market's reliability for large players such as India, China and the Arab states.

Victoria Zhuravleva, director of the Center for North American Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), stressed that until Republicans and Democrats agree on how to tackle the festering immigration crisis on the United States' southern border, the possibility of this bill getting beyond preliminary approval by congressional committees is minimal.

Kommersant: Russia’s gas production decreases by 5.5% in 2023

Gas production in Russia fell by 5.5% in 2023 to 636.7 bln cubic meters, according to an article by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in Energy Policy magazine. However, in December, production grew by 3.8% to 63 bln cubic meters. According to Kommersant, Gazprom's output declined by around 9% year on year to 404 bln cubic meters, mainly due to a drop in shipments to Europe, while overall pipeline gas exports fell by one quarter. The government anticipates a recovery in output in 2024 as a result of increasing exports from Gazprom to Asia and the start of the first line at Novatek’s new liquified natural gas (LNG) plant.

The production of "other producers," including Gazprom, reached around 404 bln cubic meters in 2023, which is 9.2% lower than the year before. Gazprom's exports continued to decline due to the loss of the European market. The gas giant aims to compensate for the loss of the European market by increasing supplies to China and Central Asia.

Russia’s largest independent gas producer, Novatek, increased production by 0.3% in 2023 to 82.39 bln cubic meters. Gas production at other big oil companies is still declining, most likely as a result of the OPEC+ deal, Kommersant writes.

The past year's results were largely expected, according to Sergey Kondratiev of the Institute of Energy and Finance. "Although in recent months production has been growing in annual terms, at the end of the year we still saw a slight decline associated with the high base effect in the first half of the year," he told Kommersant. According to the expert, Gazprom's dynamics as a result of reduced exports contributed the most to the overall decline. At the same time, the expert believes that 2023 generally exceeded expectations, and that the recovery in production will continue in 2024, as domestic demand remains high and supplies to China and the CIS countries increase. According to his projections, by the end of 2024, production may reach 650-655 bln cubic meters.

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