The European Union is seen as reluctant to engage in a direct military conflict with Russia given the pitifully depleted state of its defense potential; rumors that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky sacked top military commander Valery Zaluzhny are bringing the long-simmering Kiev power struggle into the public spotlight; and NATO is seeking a "way to peace" that is paved with yet more weapons for Ukraine. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: EU reluctant to test enfeebled defense sector by waging war directly on Russia
On January 31, an informal two-day meeting of EU defense ministers will wrap up in Brussels. The defense chiefs were expected to discuss whether the European Union is adequately prepared to confront potential challenges, including an armed conflict with Russia, although such a scenario would clearly be undesirable for Brussels. "Nobody in the EU wants to wage war directly against Russia, despite an extremely low level of trust in the Russians," an EU official told Izvestia.
An EU-Russia conflict would see NATO getting involved in the war. While European politicians often talk about preparations for an all-out conflict with Russia, in reality Europe is afraid of such a scenario, Jan Nolte, a member of the Bundestag (German parliament) Defense Committee from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, told Izvestia. "The EU’s own defense capabilities are relatively limited," as the bloc relies largely on the fact that its member countries are also NATO allies, he said, adding that resources also pose a critical challenge.
According to Vadim Koroshchupov, a junior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), the military-industrial base in European countries has shrunk dramatically, with defense budgets and force numbers among national armies having contracted sharply. The EU could potentially pose a military threat to Russia if it could somehow unify the defense potential of all 27 member countries, which is currently unlikely, the expert said.
"Every country has its own political culture and a different attitude to certain conflicts," Koroshchupov underlined. "They cannot present a united front, and they sense this vulnerability. While the situation may change in the longer term, this inability to reach agreement quickly will always have an impact," he added.
It’s no secret that the NATO allies would expect to receive mutual military assistance under the much-discussed Article 5 of the NATO treaty in the hypothetical event of any conflict with a third country. In that regard, however, on January 27 once-and-potential-future US commander-in-chief Donald Trump expressed doubts that the other NATO countries would be able to ride to the rescue of the Americans should the United States come under attack. And, as several experts underscored, the US is not seeking to engage in a direct conflict with Russia.
"The United States realizes only too well that Russia is a nuclear power, and it is set to continue containing Russia by means of the proxy war it is currently waging in Ukraine," Vladimir Batyuk, head of the Center for Military and Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Izvestia. "The Americans have shown a certain restraint in all regional conflicts where the interests of Washington and Moscow could collide, and that goes for the situation in Syria, as well," he concluded.
Izvestia: Rumors of sacking bring Kiev’s Zelensky-Zaluzhny power struggle into public view
Swirling rumors about the alleged dismissal of Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny could be a test of the public’s response to a decision that may have already been made, say experts interviewed by Izvestia. However, a negative response from politicians and voters alike would hardly be enough to keep Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky from sacking Zaluzhny, who Zelensky sees as the main threat to his hold on power in Kiev.
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian media reported that Zelensky had indeed met with Zaluzhny to ask him to step down, but the latter refused to sign the relevant papers, while conceding that the president is entitled to choose who to work with. This version of events could well be true, as it may prove dangerous for Zelensky to fire Zaluzhny on his own, while a formal letter of resignation could give the head of state the necessary alibi and political cover.
"The Ukrainian government is aware that such a step would have negative repercussions, and taking it in the current situation would be reckless," Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. "Zaluzhny enjoys significant authority both within the ranks of the army and among the people. And [Ukraine’s] Western partners, as well, perceive him as a potent political figure within [Ukraine’s] current leadership," he added.
In fact, any move by Zelensky’s government to force the popular commander-in-chief out would shake the political balance in Kiev and destabilize the entire situation. And, in this context, speculation that Zelensky may be testing the public response could be what is driving the rumors being reported in the news, political analyst Kirill Averyanov told Izvestia.
"A process of testing the waters has been going on at a very high level, involving lawmakers formally in opposition to Zelensky. This suggests that tensions between the [Ukrainian] president and his most senior military commander are affecting the entire Ukrainian political landscape," the expert emphasized.
But, a negative public response to such leaks would hardly be enough to stop Zelensky from carrying out his plans, Averyanov insisted, expressing the view that the Ukrainian leader would simply concoct a more substantive pretext for sacking his nemesis in uniform. "In my opinion, the crash of the [Russian] Il-76 plane that was carrying Ukrainian POWs may be used as a pretext. Zelensky could blame the tragedy on Zaluzhny, and that would be an entirely fair accusation," the expert believes, given the convincing evidence that the Ukrainian armed forces were behind the downing of the plane.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: NATO seeking 'way to peace' with more Western, Ukrainian weapons
Recent media reports about the resignation of popular Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny have not affected the West’s resolve to continue backing Kiev. As the Ukrainian army switches to a strategy of "active defense," the United States and its NATO allies intend to supply more weapons to Ukraine and develop the country’s domestic defense industry more actively to the point where local plants can produce more munitions, new tanks, armored personnel carriers, howitzers and heavy drones.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians continue to strike targets deep within Russia. On the night of January 29, Russian air defense forces downed or intercepted as many as 21 Ukrainian drones, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
"Ukrainian troops carry on with large-scale hostilities, as they switch to an active defense posture, while trying to strike strategic targets deep in Russia’s rear," military analyst Colonel (Ret.) Vladimir Popov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "This strategy allows them to husband their combat resources. And, the West has not reacted to such actions on the part of Ukraine, while Great Britain announced plans to send long-range drones capable of reaching Moscow or other central Russian cities to Kiev," he said. While the US, the EU and NATO are presenting a united front in saying that it is necessary to provide more support for Ukraine, only a handful of countries oppose this, the expert added. And NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, following his latest visit to Washington, that "weapons are the way to peace" in Ukraine.
Building factories to localize the production of Turkish drones in Ukraine has been NATO’s most successful project of late. According to media reports, last summer, Turkish defense company Baykar launched the construction of a drone plant outside Kiev. It will manufacture Bayraktar Akinci drones that can be equipped with Ukrainian AI-450S turboprop engines, Turkish sources said.
According to Popov, Bayraktar Akincis are next-generation drones, taking the place of the Bayraktar TB2 combat drones that Ankara had supplied en masse to Kiev in previous years. "The Bayraktar Akinci drone is a heavy strategic drone that can carry more than a metric ton of ammunition at a range of up to 2,000 km. That is a very dangerous drone, and, of course, it could be used against Russia," the expert said, as he urged efforts to prevent such a development. Popov also commended Russian forces for doing the right thing by delivering strikes exactly against Ukrainian defense plants, workshops and arsenals, where cutting-edge weapons can be produced or stored.
Vedomosti: Re-election win by battered Biden cannot be ruled out, Russian experts say
American society is more polarized than ever, which creates a competitive and more favorable environment for a presidential transition, yet incumbent US President Joe Biden still has a strong chance of being re-elected in November, according to the annual report of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), titled "Russia and the World: 2024."
The authors of the report argue that with two unpopular candidates running for the presidency, it is not the one who enjoys more support who can pull off a win, but the one who voters find less unsatisfactory as the proverbial "lesser of two evils."
Despite what current opinion polls may say, it is worth understanding that there is still a long way to go to the US presidential election in November and that Biden will have the opportunity to boost his currently sagging poll numbers, Sergey Kislitsyn, director of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes. Foreign policy failures worry the US electorate less than problems in the domestic economy, which has been gradually stabilizing after a spike in consumer price inflation and the threat of a recession, he said.
"The [Biden] administration has almost an entire year in store in which to improve things, after which [average] citizens may like its economic track record, which would give Biden more of a chance for re-election," the expert argues. To him, the president’s approval rating of less than 50% [or 41%, according to leading pollster Gallup] is no indication that he may win or lose. That’s a normal story for presidents who vie for a second term, Kislitsyn noted.
Andrey Kortunov, academic director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), agrees that Biden does stand a chance to be re-elected. "Many Americans do not like Biden, but they will vote for him, albeit reluctantly, as they would hate to see a Trump win," he explained. The expert insists that whether the US-Russia dialogue on strategic stability will be revived depends on the situation in Ukraine, not vice versa. "Russia has repeatedly reiterated this stance," he specified.
As regards strategic stability, it is hard to say exactly which outcome of the election would be more favorable in this regard, the political analyst added. In any event, he said, one could hardly expect any progress on arms control if the bellicose Trump wins.
Kommersant: IMF upgrades forecasts for global, Russian economies
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made upward revisions to its forecast for the global economy, seeing a 3.1% rise this year and 3.2% growth next year. In an update to its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF also upgraded its 2024 growth forecast for the Russian economy from 1.1% to 2.6%. This marks the largest increase the IMF has made for any national economy and exceeds the consensus view among both Russian and international analysts, who are expecting growth in Russia to slow down later this year.
"The IMF forecast looks very optimistic, and the revision was rather unexpected for us," said Sofya Donets, chief economist for Russia and the CIS+ at Renaissance Capital. She herself does not share the IMF’s optimism, as she expects a mere 1% growth rate for Russia in 2024. The IMF can be more upbeat as it takes a more positive view of the role of fiscal stimulus in 2024, she opined. However, the IMF’s positive forecasts for Russia are not necessarily good news as they may trigger more sanctions, she warned.
According to Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Astra Asset Management, the upgraded forecasts reinforce the idea that persists in the markets that major developed economies will be able to avoid a recession in 2024, while developing economies can keep up acceptable growth rates. In other words, a "soft landing" awaits us, he said.
Forecasts for Russia, which provoke Polevoy’s justified skepticism, with consensus for 2024 standing at 1.5%, will look quite acceptable if we take into account the IMF’s underestimated outlook of 3% growth for 2023, while the government promised to achieve 3.5-4% growth, he noted. Recession risks are low for Russia, but due to a reversal in the fiscal and credit impulse and with the Central Bank of Russia tightening, growth rates will hover at 1% to 1.5%, the economist forecasts, which will allow the Central Bank of Russia to gradually regain control over inflation and start cutting interest rates starting from the end of the second quarter of 2024.
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