Europe has generally managed to cope with the energy crisis: January 22 saw the price of February futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands fall by 6.3 percent to $299.8 per 1,000 cubic meters. It has been the first recorded drop below $300 since July 28, 2023. With cold January weather, and methane trucks carrying fuel to the continent across the Red Sea having to make a U-turn avoiding fire from the Houthis, gas prices should have soared. No sir.

Among the reasons in favor of a cheaper cubic meter of gas have been reserves accumulated in underground storage facilities (UGS) throughout the low season and high wind generation courtesy of the weather. Another vital thing is the lack of due energy demand over European Union’s general economic issues, particularly in Germany as its traditional "engine".

Yes, the price of gas in the EU is next lower order than the peak values of the spring 2022, when the TTF featured exchange quotations "approaching" $3,900 per thousand cubic meters. But for the seasons to come, Europe’s energy security is far from being solved. EU member states have grown more reliant on renewable energy sources unable to guarantee stable generation. Also, commitment to waive Russian gas has made Europe look for new suppliers capable of meeting its needs. This implies competition between European countries and other regions, primarily Asia, for liquefied natural gas (LNG), and their everlasting dependance on the "molecules of freedom", i.e. US LNG shipments.

The prospect of transiting Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine has not been crossed out yet. On January 25, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, following his visit to Ukraine and talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Denis Shmygal, allowed for further gas transit through Ukraine’s Natural Gas Transmission System in 2025. After that, Kiev declared unwillingness to extend the transportation contract with Russia and admitted discussions of "using its gas transmission network" with an EU member state. Moscow voiced its opinion on January 27, when its Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov told reporters that "a decision on extending the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe is likely to be found."

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its latest review that gas supplies from Russia to EU member states in 2023 declined by 60 percent (38 billion cubic meters) and amounted to 25 billion cubic meters.

The share of Russian pipeline gas in Europe's total consumption last year was 10 percent. The EU’s domestic production, including Norway, accounted for 40 percent, pipeline gas imports from North Africa reached 7 percent, imports from other countries — 6 percent. LNG imports provided another 37 percent of consumption. "Our forecast assumes that Russian piped gas supplies to OECD Europe remain close to their 2023 levels in 2024," the review reads.

The third decade of January saw Europe's UGSFs being 75 percent full (which is some 11 percent higher than the January 20 average over the past five years) — they contain 82.67 billion cubic meters of gas, Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) claims.

European countries filled their storage facilities by the target 90 percent ahead of the heating season in mid-August, and the selection period (the heating season in Europe started on November 7, 2023) began with a record 99.63 percent.

Significant natural gas reserves of the kind have affected the pricing environment in other regions. Among other things, this will contribute to maintaining the so-called Asian premium until 2025, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) forecasts. The organization's report notes that Europe’s December spot gas prices decreased by 18 percent as compared to the previous month (and by 68 percent against December 2023) to an average of $11.3 per 1 million British thermal units (MBTU) / $403 per 1,000 cubic meters. Among the underlying factors (in addition to large UGSF reserves and stable LNG supplies), GECF lists Europe’s mild winter, Norway’s sustainable gas production, high-level wind power plant generation and the overall decline in global energy prices.

In January, LNG shipments to the European gas transportation system decreased as compared to December. GIE says regasification terminals (to receive LNG and pump it into the European network) are 47 percent loaded. Europe’s average gas purchase price in December was $408 per 1,000 cubic meters, but the January figure was only $348.