Western experts no longer hide their disappointment in the Ukrainian army’s potential and squabbles between the military and political leaders. Lacking ammunition and people have made the AFU yield the initiative to Russian forces, the New York Times writes. Unlike the Russian army, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been saving shells, lacking components for equipment repair and maintenance. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been also falling short of personnel and armament as they are now digging in and seeking to gain a foothold after the failed counteroffensive, the Western newspaper gloomily reports, referring to Ukrainian soldiers.
"They come in waves. And they do not stop. Right now, we don't have enough equipment and people to go on the offensive. Therefore, the main goal at the moment is to hold the current positions," Lt. Alexander Shyrshin, deputy battalion commander in the 47th Mechanized Brigade told the Americans. "With the Russians firing fivefold more shells along the frontline than the AFU, the latter are increasingly resorting to explosive-loaded FPV drones to somehow fill the gap. Ukrainian soldiers are digging holes to survive and hold on. The enemy has achieved certain success, we are not going to make secret of that," rifle battalion chief with the 72nd Mechanized Brigade Major Sergei Betz confirmed.
Ukrainian forces on the eastern front have been exhausted and seen no replenishment, as concluded byBoris Mabiyard, special correspondent at the Swiss Le Temps outlet. He visited line zero and talked to soldiers of Ukraine's National Guard 1st brigade Bureviy (Hurricane). Now it operates along the LPR’s Kremennaya direction, struggling to contain Russia’s offensive across a 15-kilometer stretch. "Since the end of the summer, Russian troops have only been intensifying their air and ground attacks. Ukrainians have been slowly retreating over the lack of both weapons and people. The infantry pays the highest price in this meat grinder," the article says. He also talked to fighters of a tactical group, who told him how owing to drones they finally apprehended Russia’s quantitative edge which used to be anyone’s guess. "Should Russian forces move to our positions in one fell swoop, we would not have been able to stop them," an AFU soldier told Le Temps.
In turn, experts with America’s Politico conclude that shell famine has forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to stay on the defensive, abandoning dynamic frontline action. In order to somehow quell people’s worries, information has appeared that Ukraine is trying to ramp up its own missile production. But the number of ammunition produced by the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is classified information, with "too few shells reaching the battlefield." "On average, we fire 15 shots a day, if at all," one of the AFU gunners told Politico, asking not to be identified. The reason behind this circumstance is not explained, because in that case the media will have to cover it: in several key sectors of the front, AFU’ ammunition supply routes have either been cut or fire-controlled by Russian artillery. The West can hardly admit this reality, since it implies plan failure and recognition of enemy superiority. Therefore, we have to look for reasons why Kiev, instead of "regaining territories and seeking military revenge," has hunkered down, allocating $500 million on deeper defenses in the Donbas to act as reserve positions in case of a Russian army’s powerful breakthrough. Part of this sum is intended for border fortifications.
The Ukrainian side has also actively joined in the search for justifications of its defeats, and shell hunger complaints. The Ukrainian army is in a crisis amid deficient ammunition and equipment. This has been stated by Verkhovna Rada’s National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee Deputy Chairman Egor Chernev. With mortar crews having to save on shots, the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot afford to shoot at several advancing soldiers of the Russian army, who have adapted to seizing Ukraine’s advanced positions in small groups. And Alexander Tarnavsky, commander of the Ukrainian Tavrida grouping, said the AFU suffer an acute shortage of Soviet-made 122 mm and 152 mm shells. Prior to that, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov informed his EU counterparts about the dire emergency, emphasizing in his appeal that Russian troops use a daily thrice as many shells. The second reason for intensified talks about ammunition shortages is also obvious — knocking more arms and money out of Western allies.
Russian sources have been verifying information about the issues AFU faces in certain front sectors. In particular, ammunition shortages have made the Ukrainian military less active in the Kherson region, as announced by its head Vladimir Saldo. Over the last week, he said, all of their actions were limited to holding ground. "The bloodless enemy did not conduct active offensives, feeling a shortage of artillery munitions. In general, the Kiev regime’s tactics has moved to a greater use of attack drones, including assaults on civilian infrastructure," Vladimir Saldo said. Fighter call-signed Shaman from the LPR’s Kremennaya area noted a sizable artillery fire intensity decline. "Even AFU's attempts to suppress our artillery positions have become quite modest as compared to what we had to experience before. This fact is important because it happened when we started actively advancing along the entire frontline. That is, the lack of shells during the period of positional confrontation was not that critical to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unlike now when they need to repel our assault, and this is fraught with fatal consequences," the soldier shared his view.
The Russian army’s advance and gradual liberation of new territories has been underway in a variety of locations. In Zaporozhye, the Russian military attacked AFU positions outside Verbovoye, suppressing several strongholds. The DPR also witnesses battles along several directions, with our troops successfully moving around Krasnolimansk to take control of key heights between Yampolovka and Terny. "Liberation of these settlements from Ukrainian formations is expected to occur in the near future," Russian military correspondent Andrei Lisitsyn reports. Near the DPR’s northern city of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), the Russian army is fighting for heights outside Kleshcheyevka. Next to Seversk, our fighters seized several more enemy positions. Along the Donetsk direction, the Russian infantry has been liberating western approaches to Donetsk, advancing to Georgiyevka, northwest of Maryinka and next to the Trudovskaya mine vent shaft.
But the epicenter of fights is still Avdeevka, to the northwestern of Donetsk. Urban battles have begun there. The Russian assault groups’ objective while moving towards each other is to cut the city in half — and there are just five streets to go. Military correspondent Marat Khairullin provides important details to this effect: "The attack aircraft of the 114th and 30th brigades of the Russian army bypassed the Avdeevsky sand quarry (Blue Lakes) from two sides and officially entered Avdeevka along the northern Zheleznodorozhny Lane and Frunze Street. And now they are gaining a foothold in the Sapronov Street. Special operations forces of the 115th Brigade of the Russian Guard entered the city as well." The AFU are struggling to stop our units that are vigorously pressing and breaking through enemy defenses. If they succeed in reaching the railway and march further to the Industrialny Prospekt, Ukraine’s grouping will be split. In this case, the southern part may get completely deprived of supplies and reserves, which is why the AFU will soon be forced to withdraw from the southern and central parts of the city.
Ukrainian sources confirm this in panic. Members of the 110th Brigade told reporters that Russia has been spotting Ukrainian drone operators in Avdeevka to hit every singly facility or antenna by artillery and guided aerial bombs — in a virtually unhindered way.
Ukrainian military volunteer and blogger Yury Butusov has declared an emergency: "Russian troops have advanced into the Avdeevka development area, street battles are underway. Russian units have gained a foothold in the Stepnaya Street. If measured in a straight line, the leading echelons are located at a distance of about one and a half kilometers from the city entrance. Two weeks ago, the enemy managed to enter two streets in the city’s southern outskirts. " As for the AFU’s 110th brigade defending Avdeevka and units attached to it, the Ukrainian activist called them absolutely exhausted over heavy losses, noting the lack of reinforcements.
