Donald Trump sweeps the GOP primaries to emerge as incumbent US President Joe Biden’s rival for a fall presidential rematch; Washington is changing its tune to back an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip for the first time; and the resignation of veteran US diplomat and Washington’s chief "Russia-hater" Victoria Nuland signals a shift in US foreign policy priorities. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Media: Trump sweeps GOP primaries to emerge as Biden’s rival in fall presidential rematch
Former US President Donald Trump has won the primary election for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. His last remaining rival, former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, pulled out of the race after losing the Super Tuesday primary vote in 15 states and one US territory. Trump is now expected to be nominated as the GOP’s presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 15-18, unless he is removed or barred by a court order. Incumbent President Joe Biden, who has been winning the Democratic Party primaries easily against nominal rivals, will compete against Trump in a reprise of the 2020 election. In Biden’s case, however, surprises are also possible, such as a sudden withdrawal from the race, potentially for health reasons, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Pavel Sharikov, an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), points out that, in theory, Haley could still hope for a victory. There is a hypothetical possibility that delegates at the July GOP convention might opt to vote against Trump. However, in order to do that, they would need a substantial reason, such as Trump being handed a prison sentence.
So far, however, Trump has been lucky in court. He managed to win the most important case at the US Supreme Court, which found that Colorado justices had exceeded their authority by removing Trump from the state ballot for allegedly violating the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, which bars anyone engaged in insurrection from holding public office. However, several other pending cases should not be discounted, so surprises may still be in store for the ex-president ahead of the November 5 vote.
As for Biden, the main issue stems from his campaign team’s inability to spark enthusiasm among Democratic voters, Lev Sokolshchik, researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, told Vedomosti. However, the high level of political polarization in the US electorate may promote consolidation within the opposing camps and Trump’s participation in the election may become the major lightning rod that motivates Democratic activists to "get out the vote" on election day, including among those who are generally lukewarm toward Biden and have no great desire to cast their ballots for him, Sokolshchik said.
Trump, in turn, will have to secure the support of Haley’s voters by November. "The ex-president will rally the core of Republican voters around himself. Still, if Trump does win the nomination, he will have to find a way to make sure by November that Haley’s swing voters don’t stay home [but instead] come out to the polling stations to support him," the expert noted.
Vedomosti: Washington changes tune, backs immediate Gaza ceasefire for first time
The US has revised its approach to a draft UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution on the Gaza Strip war calling for an immediate ceasefire and the subsequent release of all hostages, Vedomosti writes, citing Western media outlets. Initially, Washington insisted only on a temporary ceasefire but later changed its mind. Previously, the US representative on the UNSC vetoed three draft resolutions submitted by Algeria, two of which demanded an immediate truce.
The US move stems from domestic problems, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, noted. A significant share of Democratic Party voters are dissatisfied with the Biden administration’s foreign policy stance on the Gaza conflict and are demanding that Washington take more active measures in terms of Palestine. "This issue is a Damocles' sword hanging over the White House as its consequences may be disastrous for the Democrats as the presidential election draws nearer. Biden can no longer have it both ways in his position on the Gaza war," the expert said.
According to Vasilyev, there is a serious rift in the Democratic Party over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which may cause a split among the US elite. "Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may take advantage of this as some anti-Israel voters may swing towards him. This would strengthen the Republicans’ position, albeit indirectly," the analyst explained.
The media reported earlier, citing Egyptian sources, that talks between Israel and Hamas in Cairo on March 5 had actually stalled. However, the dialogue continues. A compromise is still possible at this point, Ivan Bocharov, program coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), said. According to the expert, neither Israel nor Hamas militants are interested in continuing combat operations during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. "Tel Aviv will not agree to an indefinite ceasefire. However, it doesn’t mean that there is no way for the parties to make an agreement. US support is also creating a favorable atmosphere for negotiations," the expert said.
Kommersant: Veteran diplomat’s resignation signals shifting US foreign policy priorities
The upcoming resignation of US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland has given rise to different theories about what may have prompted her sudden decision to step down. Moscow attributed it to the collapse of the US’ anti-Russian policy and the failure of its Ukraine project, for which Nuland has been a leading ideologue and cheerleader. Washington officials, in turn, focused on the fact that Kurt Campbell, another veteran US diplomat responsible for the Indo-Pacific region, had been nominated to be the second-highest-ranking official at the US Department of State, edging out Nuland, who had sought the post. Media outlets and experts see it as a sign that Asia is becoming Washington’s priority amid declining interest in Ukraine and the US’ Euro-Atlantic allies, Kommersant writes.
Experts and journalists point out that the behind-the-scenes struggle between personalities is rooted in a debate about how to formulate US foreign policy over the long term and what its priorities should be.
After US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman retired last summer, Nuland took on her role for six months. However, at the end of last year, the White House suddenly decided to nominate Campbell, who made his diplomatic career on the Indo-Pacific track rather than on the Euro-Atlantic one, to be the administration’s number two diplomat.
"Kurt Campbell played a key role in developing Barack Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategic concept into President Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy," Yury Tavrovsky, head of the expert council at the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development, pointed out. "As for practical work, he was particularly active in creating the anti-China military bloc AUKUS (Australia, UK and US - Kommersant) and boosting the military aspect of the QUAD group (the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue of Australia, India, the US and Japan - Kommersant). Kurt Campbell’s appointment to the second-highest position at the Department of State highlights the White House’s long-term course toward containing China despite statements and actions that may make it look like it’s seeking reconciliation," the expert noted. That said, in Tavrovsky’s words, "it’s not the biggest Russia-hater that has taken the second-highest post at the US Department of State but the biggest China-hater."
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Four data cables connecting Europe, Asia, Africa cut in Red Sea
Four underwater data cables connecting Europe, Asia and Africa have to date been cut in the Red Sea. Experts believe that more such incidents may cripple global communications, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
The incident affected 25% of data traffic. According to a preliminary analysis, the damaged sections of the cables fall under Yemen’s jurisdiction, Hong Kong-based HGC Global Communications Limited said.
"There are various ways to cripple a cable: it can be blown up, hit by an excavator bucket or cut off. It certainly is vandal-proof but given that combat operations are underway in the Red Sea, this comes as no surprise," said Denis Kuskov, director general of the TelecomDaily information and analytical agency. According to him, a week would have been enough to restore the cables in a peaceful environment, provided there was a vessel and skilled personnel, but now, with military activities underway, repairs may take months.
Eldar Murtazin, leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, points out that no one is talking about a very important thing: The Red Sea is not the only place where an act of sabotage like this is possible. "We currently have no other means of communication between continents, and there are lots of such unprotected cables. It’s almost impossible to figure out who did that and how," the expert said.
According to him, the attack on communications infrastructure "is a very bad sign" because it actually opens up opportunities for various terrorist groups across the world. "The global network can be broken down through mass attacks carried out repeatedly in different regions," Murtazin stressed.
Russia has quality communications lines and has not been affected by the incident. That said, if the trend persists, in a couple of months other countries will make a request to run traffic through Russia, the expert added. "It is a very strong negotiating position in political terms," Murtazin noted.
Izvestia: Gold prices reach all-time high amid global turbulence, shipping disruptions
Gold prices have significantly grown, exceeding $2,100 per troy ounce. Investors expect key rates to be reduced and the dollar to weaken, and there is a US presidential election coming up. Global central banks are showing increasing demand for gold, with Russia having accumulated significant gold reserves, Izvestia notes.
"Tensions related to Russia and Ukraine are still there. Military activities continue in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone. China and Taiwan also cause concern," Alexey Androsov, treasury chief at RosDorBank, notes.
Apart from geopolitical turbulence, the objective reasons behind rising gold prices also include high inflation expectations, the expectation of a decrease in key rates in the US and the euro zone and global shipping disruptions. According to experts, volatilities stemming from elections, primarily in the US, are another factor that may be driving prices higher. "[Ex-US President] Donald Trump’s chances of winning the conservative [Republican] party’s presidential nomination are high, and his election victory may lead to further trade wars with China. Besides, instability persists in the Red Sea," Pavel Zhuravlyov, head of investment analytics at Renaissance Bank, points out.
Global central banks were actively buying the precious metal over the entirety of last year. Regulators’ demand for gold was among the key factors supporting the price. Other important reasons are that gold investments are efficient in times of crisis, as gold is a long-term asset that protects against inflation, and there are no political or default risks, Yekaterna Bezsmertnaya, head of the Economics and Business Department at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, emphasized.
Russia has accumulated major gold reserves, which reached 2,350 tons last year. That said, a rise in gold prices is clearly a plus for Russia. In response to the West’s freezing of Russian assets, it makes sense, in particular, to build up sovereign gold reserves. Rising gold prices increase the reserves and even provide additional funds for payments, said Anton Sviridenko, executive director of the Stolypin Institute.
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