Cracks are appearing in the West’s united front on Ukraine over provocative talk about sending troops into the fray; Paris’ recent saber rattling over Ukraine masks its geopolitical failures in francophone Africa; and Israel is expected to continue talks with Hamas on a Gaza ceasefire during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency. 

Izvestia: Western unity starts to crack over calls to dispatch own troops to Ukraine

NATO instructors arrived in Ukraine in the wake of the 2014 Maidan coup, which was long before Russia’s special military operation, Ukrainian politicians told Izvestia. In turn, on March 8, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski pointed to the presence of NATO personnel in Ukraine. In general, the idea of sending Western troops to help Kiev has been under active discussion since February, triggered by French President Emmanuel Macron’s remarks about the possibility of such a deployment. However, these developments have caused a rift in the West, experts point out.

NATO’s internal divisions over Russia and the conflict in Ukraine have significantly increased in the past two years, Alexander Nosovich, editor-in-chief of the RuBaltic.ru and Eurasia.Expert analytical websites, said. Divisions are clear both among North Atlantic Alliance member states and domestically within those countries. "It’s hard to imagine NATO having a general guideline. If we take the US, it’s seeking to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. Proxy war has been chosen as a tool to achieve the goal at this point," the expert noted. "Meanwhile, there are radical groups in certain countries, particularly within the governments of some Eastern European nations, which are calling for sending NATO troops to Ukraine," he added. However, it is not clear if such radical politicians are ready to put their money where their mouths are by actually sending ground troops into the fray, Nosovich noted. For instance, a specific feature of the Baltic states is that their politicians’ rhetoric is not always followed by real action, the analyst stressed.

Notably, there is a rift developing inside Poland, too. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has clearly stated that Warsaw will not send troops to Ukraine. Political scientist Kiriil Averyanov believes that the aforementioned remark by Sikorski should be taken as proof that the situation of the Ukrainian armed forces is worsening.

"NATO is sending a message to Russia that the North Atlantic Alliance’s troops will enter Ukraine in case Kiev’s situation becomes critical. Since such statements have been made frequently, one may conclude that the West views the current situation along the line of engagement as very unfavorable for Ukraine," the expert pointed out. 

Izvestia: Paris’ belligerence on Ukraine masks geopolitical failure in francophone Africa

French President Emmanuel Macron’s calls for the potential deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine was taken by most European capitals, including Moscow, as an attempt to bring the crisis to another level. Experts point out that Macron, a politician who had not so long ago been a consistent voice for dialogue, is now provocatively challenging Russia. Paris’ adoption of tough rhetoric on Ukraine has been driven, however, not only by developments on the line of engagement in Ukraine itself but also by developments in French-Russian relations, which are characterized by a tough confrontation in some regions of the world far from Ukraine, Izvestia writes.

France is the European Union’s largest agricultural producer. Just ten years ago, African nations were among the biggest buyers of French grain along with neighboring EU countries. However, the situation has now changed dramatically. In particular, France almost lost the Algerian market in 2023, while Russia significantly increased exports. In addition, the interests of Russia and France are also colliding in the international arms market. In July 2023, delegations from 48 countries attended the Russia-Africa summit, where 40 defense cooperation agreements were signed.

The change of elites in francophone West Africa, which began in 2021, has stripped Paris of much of its traditional political and economic influence in the region, not to mention its prominent military presence. The French military has now pulled out of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and the Central African Republic. Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces established its "African Corps" in late 2023, which is expected to reach its full force posture by this summer. Russian-African military cooperation has already produced tangible results. In November, the Malian government, with the help of Russian military specialists, liberated a number of population centers in the country’s north from jihadists, which had controlled the area for ten years. The weakening of France’s position in the region, catalyzed by Moscow, is a major irritation for Paris, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), pointed out.

France is now seeking to step up its activities in those regions that are sensitive for Russia. Notably, it has increased military partnership with Armenia over the past year. In addition, a French delegation led by Macron visited Moldova in early March. The agreements that were concluded provide, in particular, for the establishment of a French military mission in the ex-Soviet country. "France is interested in acting as a kind of conductor in building closer ties between the nations of the Mediterranean in the broad sense (from Africa to the South Caucasus) and the European Union and also as a promoter of the EU’s foreign policy. Cooperation with Armenia and Moldova is a way to put pressure on both Moscow and Ankara," Pavel Timofeyev, head of the Section for Regional Issues and Conflicts at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), noted. 

Vedomosti: Israel to continue talks on Gaza ceasefire during Ramadan

Negotiators representing Israel and Hamas are continuing consultations on a cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip, Vedomosti writes, citing a statement by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. In the meantime, media outlets report that Israel-Hamas talks in Cairo ended in a stalemate on March 5.

Hamas political bureau member Osama Hamdan accused the Israeli authorities of dragging the talks out and warned that the Palestinian movement would resume dialogue only after Israeli troops left Gaza, and after Israel allowed displaced Palestinians to return home and eased international humanitarian organizations’ access to the embattled enclave. In addition, Abu Obaida, a spokesman for Hamas’ military wing, on March 8 called on the Palestinians to carry out acts of resistance "inside and outside of Palestine."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is more interested in freezing the status quo in Gaza than in resolving the issue, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) expert Kirill Semenov said. According to him, such a stance makes it possible for Netanyahu to buy time, while the low intensity of fighting is reducing pressure from Israel’s Western allies. "The permanent crisis in the region allows Netanyahu to stay afloat. He is wary that a short-term ceasefire may turn into a long-term one, and it will be much more difficult to resume combat operations afterwards. This is why the [Israeli] prime minister is trying through a variety of means to delay a ceasefire despite external pressure," the expert explained. Israel’s unwillingness to make compromises may lead to a further escalation of tensions in the region, Semenov warns, saying that "the flames of war may spread to other areas."

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has described a potential Israeli offensive towards the city of Rafah in southern Gaza as a red line, but added that it did not imply an end to US military assistance. Biden’s remark was seen as an element of his election campaign rhetoric aimed at shoring up support among some key Democratic Party constituencies, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, noted. This is how the incumbent US president is trying to keep his party from splitting in a situation where many of its members are demanding that Washington intervene to bring an early end to the fighting in the Gaza Strip. 

Kommersant: Price of bitcoin reaches record-breaking high, further gains seen by year-end

The price of bitcoin has settled at above $69,000 after reaching a record-breaking high and then falling back. Experts attribute the price swings to trading by investors who expected the price to drop, as well as to profit-taking after a period of growth. Market participants say that the price will rise to $100,000 by the end of the year, Kommersant writes.

The start of trading in US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) was one of the drivers behind bitcoin’s price rise, experts point out. Members of the cryptocurrency community had been lobbying for the US government to authorize the tool since 2013 and, finally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved bitcoin-based ETFs in January. In addition, US unemployment data raised the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve would cut its key interest rate, experts add. These changes are increasing market players’ interest in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. This is a positive factor for the crypto market, Smart Blockchain co-founder Alex Reinhardt said.

The listed factors are also impacting other cryptocurrencies. In particular, ethereum surpassed bitcoin in terms of growth rate (15% compared to 13%). Positive news about the approval of Ethereum ETFs in the US may further boost cryptocurrencies, ENCRY Foundation co-founder Roman Nekrasov added. The Shiba Inu cryptocurrency showed the fastest growth in a week, jumping by more than 60%.

Experts interviewed by the newspaper expect the bitcoin rally to continue. Reinhardt and Nekrasov believe that the cryptocurrency may settle at above $70,000. The $100,000 mark may be reached by the end of the year, when bitcoin will have recovered from a potential price correction and the market will have cooled down and gained strength for another forced march, Reinhardt said. Once "all the weak hands are removed" from the market, the cryptocurrency’s price may skyrocket to $170,000 and even higher, MarsDAO co-founder Vladislav Utushkin noted. In his opinion, "bitcoin will move towards this mark in the middle of 2025." 

Kommersant: Russia records rise in LNG exports in February

Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rose by 2.8% in February compared to the same period last year, according to Kpler data. Supplies to European Union countries remain stable so far despite talk in Europe about restricting LNG imports from Russia, Kommersant notes.

In February, Russia supplied 1.59 mln tons of LNG to European countries and Turkey and another 1.1 mln tons to Asia. In particular, the Yamal LNG company doubled supplies to France and increased supplies to Belgium by 51%.

EU countries increased LNG purchases on the global market last year in order to offset lost Russian pipeline gas supplies. Still, no direct sanctions have been imposed on either pipeline gas or LNG imports from Russia.

However, Environmental Transition Minister Teresa Ribera of Spain, one of Europe’s largest LNG consumers, stated in early March that the EU should toughen its stance on how member states might reduce or ban Russian LNG imports. The initiative in question, which limits preliminary applications for LNG terminal capacities meant for Russian gas supplies, is expected to be considered by the European Parliament in April.

"Despite the European Union’s plans to restrict Russian LNG supplies, we currently see no such trend," independent expert Alexander Sobko said. "Importers don’t plan to abandon Russian LNG imports in advance, nor are they replacing them with other supplies, which suggests that they are at least not interested in such a replacement and, at the most, they will try their best to maintain Russian imports," he pointed out.

Sobko notes that decisions about potential restrictions on Russian LNG imports may be made in April. Meanwhile, in the summer Russia’s Yamal LNG always sends much of its gas to Asia via the Northern Sea Route.

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