Europe’s enlightened public has been increasingly astonished to observe the frantic military and political activity by President Macron, who seems to have simply turned his back on domestic issues, focusing on external affairs. Let's try to give an explanation for this antic by Emmanuel — he must be seeking something after all. But what? And his intentions may appear quite viable.

To begin with, let us recall facts revealing Macron’s growing activity in European affairs. Here is the list of his vital moves and statements from late February to early March 2024:

- The French president’s resonant statement that “NATO powers did not rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine to fight Russia” came at the end of a hastily convened late-February conference on supporting Ukraine at the Elysee Palace, featuring top representatives of 20 EU and NATO member states.

- According to Macron, “Western countries have to go all lengths to defeat Russia on the battlefield.”

- Macron said: “We have decided to create a 12-strong coalition to supply Ukraine with medium- and long-range missiles and bombs, so that it can defend its independence and democracy.”

- During a TV interview on March 14, Macron delivered several loud phrases: “The war in Ukraine threatens the existence of our Europe and France... If Russia wins, the life of the French will change. We will no longer be safe... Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians, the Bulgarians could remain in peace for a second [in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine]? If Russia wins this war, Europe's credibility will be reduced to zero... There is no consensus today on sending ground troops in an official, intended and approved manner. But nothing can be ruled out in the future... We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war!”

...Perhaps not a single Western politician has ever come up with so many belligerent statements over such a short period of time. But still, France and Europe have held off on endorsing Macron’s militaristic impulse. Which hardly bewildered him all in all. The reason will be dwelt upon below, but for now here’s the way their response looked like:

- In France itself, the president’s words aroused bitter criticism both on the left and the right, with most European partners hastening to disavow Macron’s “games of hazard.” In Europe, Poland and the “Baltic Tigers” were the only ones to declare solidarity with Paris and readiness to fight with Moscow. But where is the coalition of 12 countries Macron spoke about?

- Though Germany and Britain do dream of “Russia’s strategic defeat,” their leaders are afraid to fight real battles. In response to Macron’s statements, they assured to be not even contemplating issues related to sending military personnel to Ukraine. UK Foreign Office’s James Cameron said London was supposedly ready to work closely with Berlin on any issues to help Kiev, while Britain itself is ready to consider any cooperation options for maximum efficiency. The British Lion turns out more prudent than the Gallic Rooster, doesn’t it? What an interesting relationship at their Eurozoo...

That was our mini-review of what Macron said and did. Now let’s venture to analyze all of this as per why did he need to make such a fuss with bombastic rhetoric? Monsieur Manu not only excited domestic opposition ahead of France’s municipal election but demarcated the interests of Old and Eastern Europe with a subtle motion of the hand — not yet a split but a sure commotion among the NATO and EU members. Plus, the President of the Fifth Republic has added fuel to the fire of his relations with Russia by whipping up tensions over new sanctions at a time when Europe should try to “unscramble eggs” amid a sharp EU economy decline, and start to carefully revive ties with Moscow. New Eurostat data has shown a 5.7% decline in EU GDP against January 2023. That’s sanctions boomerang for them...

But Macron seems to have a brainchild of his own, the essence of which we are going to guess right now. What does he seek to achieve? France’s special leading place in the brand-new historical conditions — pure and simple! The usual relationship framework in the collective West has looked the following for decades: the United States is the one in charge, with Britain nearby and everyone else in NATO and the EU “sitting it out” and submissively obeying commands from Washington. But now this whole longstanding structure is crumbling. Everyone can see how Brother Johnathan has been drowning his European “partners” economically. How Trump's return loomed on the horizon with unpredictable consequences for Europe, US turn-away from NATO included. Europeans feel cut off from their former resource bases in the Global South that scented languor of former metropolises and started revealing its obstinacy and “selfhood.” The same France is being explicitly driven out of Africa. In Britain, the standard of living among the “locals” (as the upper class calls subjects of the Crown) has been creeping down — resource supply from Commonwealth vassals is over now. You're going to weep just having a look at Germany, as the former EU economic engine heads for a dead end with its recorded highest GDP decline on the continent.

A crisis for someone is a window of opportunity for others. And Macron decided to jump through this window, while trying on the “European Crown”. This fan of Napoleon has been long dreaming to be Europe’s paramount leader, and he jumps at the chance! He has few trump cards in this game he started, but those are truly oh wow! First, there are nuclear weapons. To make it clear, France is the only “bomb” owner in the EU. Britain left through Brexit, and that’s it. Yes, the US does have its nukes in Europe, but Trump may well do away with those at the end of the day. This will make Paris the undisputed leader in this context!

It is not for nothing that Macron touched upon this topic in his TV interview: Russia’s nuclear threat is “inappropriate to discuss if we do have this kind of weapons as well.” Isn’t he portraying France as Europe’s strongman?

Sure enough, Macron’s focus on European affairs has been also dictated by Paris’ rapid give-up of ground in Africa, where it once had many colonies. A whole series of military coups with overthrown pro-French leaders in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic have forced him to ride luck in southern Europe. And he has been showing unprecedented vigor, partly motivated by the “fight against Russian influence.” Thus, Macron summoned Moldovan President Sandu to Paris and testified intent to send troops to Chisinau — right “next to Odessa,” which he makes no bones about, by the way. Paris became more active in Armenia to achieve a split between Yerevan and Moscow to gain influence in Transcaucasia, Russia’s “soft underbelly”. As for Ukraine, it was already mentioned above.

We have repeatedly stated fundamental changes going on in world affairs, with things changing so rapidly that some international players have spotted their chance to get more than they had just a little while ago in this whirlwind of change. Macron has been also ramping up rhetoric, hopeful that France becomes Europe’s number one. Neither does he forget about his own career, as 2027 will see an end to his presidential term, after which he dreams of heading some kind of supranational European project to vault even higher to the top...

Globalization has played Old Harry with Europe. Emergence of the 21st century Global World made it only get what it could count on — a modest place in vast mainland Eurasia with a relevant effect on world affairs. The 500 years of European hegemony and dominance are past. Ahead of Europe there lies a fate of a “big village” in the great expanse. Saying “Europe is a continent” is mauvais ton today, and Macron realized that the role of a big frog in a small puddle is not the worst option. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...