Ukraine is unlikely to join the European Union before 2030; Israel is crafting a plan to install an anti-Hamas Palestinian authority in the Gaza Strip; and India is looking to mediate a settlement to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Ukraine’s EU accession unlikely before 2030
EU foreign diplomacy chief Josep Borrell played down the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, saying that this was "not about dying for Donbass," as the European Union wrapped up the first day of its summit in Brussels on Thursday. According to Borrel, since the start of Russia’s special military operation, the bloc has sent military aid worth 31 bln euros to Kiev, and, for this year, it has commitments for another 20 bln euros at least. He also said that the EU is planning to continue sending munitions to the Ukrainian army, which is rapidly running low on ammunition and all types of weaponry.
Experts link the EU’s search for greater autonomy in security matters and the bloc’s continuing support for Kiev with the potential for a comeback win by former US President Donald Trump in the US election in November 2024. "Statements about transferring the European economy to a war footing are a way to neutralize risks associated with the possibility of Trump returning to the White House. His victory is seen as a direct threat to NATO. Besides, the Ukraine conflict is contributing to an economic boom in the United States, and US defense companies are thriving. In this light, the desire of Europeans to redistribute benefits in their favor seems quite understandable," Yevgenia Prokopchuk, an analyst at the Center for Complex European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), told Izvestia.
Finding more funds for arming Ukraine is yet another side of the coin. In particular, Borrel expects the EU leaders to instruct their governments to formulate and approve proposals for tapping frozen Russian assets following the summit. As European financial institutions hold some 200 bln euros (out of a total 300 bln euros in frozen assets), the continent is looking for legal options for using these funds to pay for weapons supplies to Ukraine. It is noteworthy that Borrel proposed reserving 10% of that sum within the EU for spending on efforts to boost the Ukrainian defense industry.
Opinions on this differ. While Germany does not see any problems with it, Austria insists that Europe should spend income earned on Russian assets on rebuilding Ukraine rather than on more weapons purchases. And, at least three EU countries, Hungary, Malta and Luxembourg, see no possibility at all for tapping these funds to buy weapons for Kiev, Politico Europe reported.
The EU leaders are also expected to discuss accelerating Ukraine’s accession, as Borrel said a day before the summit. Meanwhile, Europe in general does not expect Kiev to join before 2030. "Granting [EU] candidate status to Ukraine should primarily be seen as an opportunity for Brussels to offer them accelerated access to funds necessary for the accession as well as certain European support measures even before they are fully integrated," French member of the European Parliament (MEP) Thierry Mariani told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Israel seeking alternative to Hamas to govern post-war Gaza
Israeli intelligence officials and representatives of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Joran are crafting a plan that could put anti-Hamas Palestinians in charge of humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, citing unidentified Israeli and Arab officials. The plan could eventually create a new post-war governing authority in the Palestinian enclave, the newspaper said.
Finding anti-Hamas forces locally is quite plausible for Tel Aviv as the idea has already been mooted by Israel’s Defense Ministry and prime minister, Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Vedomosti. While Israel is poised to keep the region under its military control, the Israelis are unlikely to be willing to run a civilian administration in Gaza. "Therefore, they need forces who could handle this after hostilities end. According to Israel’s ally, the United States, the Gaza Strip should be governed by a Palestinian, albeit reformed, authority, with which Tel Aviv is quite reluctant to do business, however," the expert explained.
Apart from Israel, its Arab neighbors are also looking for an alternative to Hamas, said Dmitry Maryasis, leading researcher with the Department of Israel Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies. The issue being perceived as an internal matter for the Arab world is of paramount importance for Tel Aviv, so that the new administration would, on the one hand, resemble the Palestinian National Authority, and, on the other hand, that it would not look like an Israeli proxy government. "Otherwise, the new system of governing Palestine simply won’t work," he added.
Meanwhile, any attempt to exclude Hamas as a political force from the peace process would face vehement opposition from the radical movement, Ivan Bocharov, program coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), said. "Hamas is very popular now, as the organization has numerous supporters in Palestine, while locals are hardly willing to create a governing authority in the region without the movement playing a role," the expert concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India working with Moscow, Kiev to mediate peace in Ukraine
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has discussed resolving the Ukraine conflict in telephone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky. The issue will be raised during a visit to New Delhi by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba next week as well. Ukraine’s top diplomat will advocate integrating India into discussions of Kiev’s peace proposal in Switzerland.
Kuleba will be the first high-profile Ukrainian official to visit India since the special military operation started. Two Indian officials told Reuters that the Ukrainian visitor would lobby for Zelensky’s so-called "peace formula" in New Delhi.
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Pacific Region Group at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), said: "I don’t think that India will play the role of a key peacekeeper. Nevertheless, India, as a global power, is in quite a position to call for a ceasefire." However, Kupriyanov doubted that India would be of any help in winning the two combatting sides’ consent for that, or in having them discuss conditions toward that goal. "Modi will not be able to put pressure on either Russia or Ukraine so that one of the two sides would make concessions anyway," the expert said.
As regards Kiev’s intentions to convene a conference in Switzerland, Kuleba’s hopes of retaking all territories are untenable as this would require Russia’s consent, Kupriyanov added. According to him, India will likely send a delegate to the meeting as the South Asian country is seeking to participate in all discussions without making any major commitments in order to increase its posture globally. The Indians are not looking to quarrel with Russia or any other country, nor would New Delhi join any action plan that would envision putting pressure on Moscow or imposing new anti-Russian sanctions, he maintained.
Izvestia: Russia’s election authority officially certifies outcome of presidential vote
On March 21, incumbent Russian President Vladimir Putin was officially declared re-elected, winning a fifth term with a resounding victory, as the formal certification of the results of Russia’s three-day presidential election showed. Putin garnered a historical record high of 87.28% of the vote, with 76.2 mln Russians voting for him. In a televised address to the nation later on Thursday, the Russian leader said that such a result would challenge him to do even more. Central Election Commission (CEC) Chairwoman Ella Pamfilova certified that, in general, the election campaign had been held to the highest standard while being fully legitimate.
Before his inauguration, which by law is slated for May 7, Putin will wrap up his fourth term. In the election, Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) candidate Nikolay Kharitonov finished second with 4.31% of the vote, followed by New People party candidate Vladislav Davankov with 3.85%, and Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) candidate Leonid Slutsky with 3.2%.
As many as 87,576,075 Russian citizens went to the polls, putting the total voter turnout for the election at 77.49%, or the highest in the country’s modern history, the CEC said. The previous record was set in 1991, when 74.66% of eligible voters took part in the election for president of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, the predecessor state of the Russian Federation.
In an interview with Izvestia, political scientist Alexander Konkov of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation described the support Putin garnered in last week’s three-day election as phenomenal and unprecedented. In addition, the presidential campaign provoked no protest sentiment within society at all, which is quite unusual for such a high-profile voting process, he added. "Putin won public support for his political agenda and also the support of all those who refuse to be faced with external pressure or threats and provocations from Russia’s rivals, both geopolitically and economically. That’s interesting," Konkov concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Global humankind on path to extinction, researchers say
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle has arrived at a discouraging set of conclusions, predicting that by 2100 the number of countries that will be able to sustain their populations through healthy birth rates rather than migrants will drop to six. IHME researchers believe that it is time to convince more people to have families and not be afraid of giving birth.
Alexey Portansky, professor in the Global Economy Department at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), suggests downplaying the role of such studies as there are much more pressing issues facing the globe, for example, climate change or pollution, he said. There is increasingly more focus on those issues, even though the planet will not completely reject using hydrocarbons for the time being, the expert added. "As regards demography, a new pandemic is likelier than any new radical drop in birth rates," he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Alexey Fenenko, political scientist and associate professor in the Department of International Security at the Faculty of World Politics of Moscow State University, disagrees, saying that this study is no accident. "It shows that Western society will inevitably abandon left liberal values, such as feminism, sexual minorities, postponing starting a family to older ages, the priority of education and the image of ‘eternal students,’ who study until they get old instead of raising a family. The culture of entertainment, too, may disappear," he argues.
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the expert said that values may change quite rapidly, pointing to the late Soviet era as well as present-day Finland, which has been rapidly militarizing after decades of neutrality.
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