A determined Russia stands united amid shock and horror as the death toll rises from Friday’s terrorist attack on a crowded Moscow concert hall, the largest such violent incident in the past 20 years; the United States is preparing to establish a new regional alliance aimed against China; and Chinese special envoy Li Hui's shuttle diplomacy tour of Europe failed to bring a settlement to the Russia-Ukraine conflict any closer. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Media: Russia unites after Moscow struck by one of most heinous terrorist attacks in years
On March 22, a few minutes before the rock band Picnic was to take the stage, several armed men stormed into the Crocus City Hall concert hall just over the Moscow city limits in the Moscow Region. They opened fire on the audience and then set fire to the building. The Russian Investigative Committee (RIC) officially declared the tragedy a terrorist attack, and four suspected perpetrators were arrested the next day in the Bryansk Region as they were attempting to flee to refuge over the nearby Ukrainian border. As of Sunday evening, according to the RIC, 137 people had been killed with the death toll expected to rise. The Moscow Region Health Ministry said 182 people had been injured.
The terrorist attack at Crocus City is one of the most shocking and horrific such atrocities to be seen in Russia in many years. The country has witnessed attacks that took more lives in the not-so-distant past, including the 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow that killed 230 people and the 2004 Beslan school hostage siege in the Russian Republic of North Ossetia-Alania in which 334 people were killed. Even the 2002 siege of Moscow’s Dubrovka Theater, the largest terror attack and hostage-taking to hit Moscow, claimed 130 fatalities, somewhat fewer than the Crocus catastrophe. But there is a distinction between these events and Friday’s attack, Vedomosti writes. The culprits in past attacks were not faceless terrorists on call with no demands or strong ideological convictions; behind each murderous rampage were experienced militants.
The new face of terrorism, judging by the vagueness of the Crocus attackers’ orders and of the perpetrators themselves (who are purported to belong to a branch of the terrorist organization ISIS or Islamic State, banned in Russia, which allegedly claimed responsibility two days later), provides very wide scope for interpreting what happened, especially considering the difficult situation in which the attack on Crocus took place.
The international reaction to the terrorist attack was rather predictable, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Research Director Andrey Kortunov told Vedomosti. It is important for the West to place all of the blame on the Islamic State in order to remove any possible questions about Ukraine’s potential hand in the crime. If no solid, irrefutable evidence implicating Kiev in the crime is presented, then the Western media’s preferred “ISIS did it” narrative will continue to prevail, he added.
Russia’s largest companies and financial institutions have stepped up to help deal with the aftermath of the Crocus tragedy, with many already having announced support measures for the victims of the terrorist attack and their families, Izvestia writes. Banks have announced plans to write off or settle loan debts, and insurance companies are ready pay out on claims. As well, retail chains and online marketplaces have donated funds to support the families of those killed and injured. Mobile phone operators have made calls to emergency numbers free of charge, and airlines have agreed to transport victims and their families free of charge.
Four suspected terrorists who are believed to have been directly involved in the shooting were placed under preventive detention by Moscow’s Basmanny Court on the evening of March 24. In the early morning hours of March 25, four defendants were taken into custody: the Investigative Committee charged Dalerjon Mirzoev, Murodali Rachabalizod, Muhammadzobir Fayzov and Shamsidin Fariduni with committing a terrorist attack.
A Vedomosti source specializing in the investigation of terrorist crimes noted that the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall was marked by an important feature: the criminals managed to escape. "Before, there were suicide bombers in terrorist attacks," the source noted.
Losses to be incurred by promoters of concerts and other mass events in Russia after the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall could reach up to 3-4 bln rubles ($32.9-43.9 mln), Evgeny Safronov, editor-in-chief for culture and entertainment at news agency InterMedia, told Vedomosti. Losses from the complete cancellation of "several hundred" public events, including concerts and theatrical productions, in Moscow alone, as specified by Sergey Babich, organizer for the international music industry forum Coliseum, have already reached 250-350 mln rubles ($2.7-3.8 mln).
Izvestia: US prepares to create new alliance aimed against China
The United States is recruiting allies to counter China in the Asia-Pacific region, American experts told Izvestia. The new alliance could help Washington contain China while the White House remains overly preoccupied with dual conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
On April 11, the leaders of the United States, Japan and the Philippines will meet for the first time in Washington, where US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will discuss trilateral cooperation. Tensions in the region are rising noticeably, according to the newspaper. Following the March 5 clash between Chinese and Filipino vessels, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Manila, where he promised "reinforced" support in the event of an armed attack by China over disputes in the South China Sea. For the first time, Taiwan confirmed the presence of the US military 6 km from mainland China.
Saeed Khan, professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, told Izvestia that Biden’s upcoming meetings with Marcos and Kishida signal a coordinated strategic plan to limit Beijing’s influence in the region. The parameters of this plan are still unknown, especially whether it will take the shape of a defense cooperation agreement similar to AUKUS or even QUAD, but the timing of this meeting cannot be a coincidence.
The United States is militarizing the entire Asia-Pacific region in an attempt to contain China, while the White House is overly preoccupied with the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Peter Kuznick, history professor at American University in Washington, told the newspaper.
The growing anti-China policy of the United States is confirmed by another fact: Biden appointed Kurt Campbell to the post of Deputy Secretary of State instead of Victoria Nuland, who will leave the post in the coming weeks, thus effectively replacing Washington’s "Russia hawk No. 1" with its "China hawk No. 1," Kuznick added. The switch reflects both how badly the fighting in Ukraine is going and highlights the fact that Biden came to power surrounded by 18 senior officials from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), which is a "breeding ground for China hawks," the political scientist noted.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Tbilisi stands up for traditional values, to ban LGBT propaganda
Georgian Parliamentary Chairman Shalva Papuashvili promised that on March 25 the public will see a bill banning propaganda promoting LGBT (an extremist movement banned in Russia). The ruling Georgian Dream party claims that this is not about violating anyone’s rights, but about protecting traditional values. The opposition, however, disagrees, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Georgian Dream party representative David Matikashvili said that activists from the LGBT organization Tbilisi Pride will try to portray the government’s initiative as anti-European in order to disrupt its implementation. "Our duty is to protect our society, our children and the future from this pseudo-propaganda," the politician stressed. The radical wing of the government’s opponents labelled the initiative a "Russian" idea, but parliamentary majority leader Mamuka Mdinaradze insists that it is driven by the need to protect the country’s national interests.
Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta link Georgian Dream’s decision to fight LGBT propaganda to its election campaign. The party wants to regain a constitutional majority in the upcoming elections, and in order to do so, it needs to win over as many voters as possible. The bill will certainly draw criticism from Western countries, but at this stage it is more important for the ruling elite to repeat the success of 2020 than to worry about its international image.
"Georgian society is predominantly conservative, so the majority will perceive this decision positively," Shota Aphaidze, an expert at the Financial University, told the newspaper.
"Perhaps, with the help of this ban, the authorities will try to make the opposition associated with Western structures guilty of promoting homosexuality. In 2023 they wanted to recognize them as ‘foreign agents’, but now they are coming from the other direction. Georgian Dream, in turn, acts as a defender of religion and traditional values, which many voters like," political scientist Nika Chitadze told the newspaper.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Li Hui’s shuttle diplomacy in Europe produces no visible results
China does not support either side in the Ukrainian conflict, according to Chinese Special Representative for Eurasia Li Hui, who summarized the results of his visit to Moscow, Kiev and EU capitals. Both Russia and Ukraine believe that the situation will be resolved through discussions, but their respective conceptions of negotiations are worlds apart, thus making a ceasefire tough to achieve, he noted. Ukraine’s allies criticized China for failing to condemn Russia. However, some Kiev officials feel China should be included in the negotiations. In this backdrop, the idea of having a peace summit in Switzerland has been brought up again. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Beijing would regard such a conference as ludicrous without Moscow’s involvement.
More than two years after the conflict began, there is no sign of a lull; on the contrary, there is a danger that the conflict will spread, Li said at a press conference in Beijing. According to Reuters, this is because last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensive achieved little and, as a result, Russian troops still control about one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory.
"You can’t call the trip a failure. The Chinese position has been previously stated, it consists of 12 points. Perhaps after some time the parties will come to the conclusion that they can be used. But for now, the parties believe that they can achieve more on the battlefield. So far, they have not realized the significance of China’s proposals. The West and Ukraine say China supports Russia. After all, from their point of view, any country that does not support Ukraine with arms supplies is against it. It does not recognize any nuances in the positions of other countries," Alexander Lukin, research director at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
"China assumes that it is not Ukraine that is against Russia, but the West as a whole. But China does not want to see Russia weakened. That is why it supports restoring the balance of power. Consequently, and with regard to the Swiss initiative, China says that peace is impossible without Russia’s participation," the expert added.
Kommersant: Russian wheat prices rise in global markets
Growing demand and concerns about dry weather in the Black Sea region could help boost prices for Russian wheat in world markets, Kommersant writes. Over the past two weeks, the price of Russian wheat has risen by $6 to $204-205 per ton. The future price dynamics may be affected by the escalation of the situation in the Black Sea, but huge grain reserves are likely to restrain any significant increase.
Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for export in April rose by $3 in the week to March 22 to $204 per ton (FOB), according to calculations by Rusagrotrans analysts. Prices are rising for the second week in a row and have increased by $6 per ton since March 8, the company added. They attribute the trend to the growth in demand for Russian wheat as the most competitive in price, among other things. Wheat from France and Germany, according to analysts, rose $5 over the week to $214 and $229 per ton, respectively, while American wheat fell $2 to $227 per ton.
Sovecon Director Andrey Sizov noted that the risks of escalation in the Black Sea in connection with military actions by Russia and Ukraine, including after the terrorist attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, may return to the focus of grain market participants and affect the dynamics of world prices. In addition to concerns about dry weather in southern Russia, there are risks associated with the new harvest of French wheat, he added. Expert Dmitry Rylko contends that the conditions for a further increase in world prices for Russian wheat remain "modest." According to him, as of early March 2024, Russian agricultural producers still have record reserves, European farmers also have large stocks, and other possible issues "so far sound too vague to influence the market."
According to Sovecon, Russia can export 5 mln tons of wheat in March, which will be a record figure for this month. Based on this season's results, Sovecon estimates Russia's grain exports at 63.8 mln tons, including 48.6 mln tons of wheat. According to Andrey Sizov, the forecast is now being revised upwards.
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