Hamas mulls response to new ceasefire proposal, why Cameron traveled to the US and AUKUS has no plans to expand. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Hamas deliberates truce offer as Israel contemplates Rafah offensive
Following talks between Hamas and Israel in Cairo that also involved Qatar, Egypt and the US, a new peace proposal was drafted. The Palestinian movement said that it will provide its response soon. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still dead-set on storming Rafah in south Gaza where more than 1.5 mln Palestinian refugees are taking cover. The Jewish state is generally ready to conclude a deal but it is not so sure that Hamas shares this desire.
This time around, the US delegation led by CIA chief William Burns presented its vision of a new truce amid the parties to the conflict dragging the talks out, particularly Israel, the US’ main ally in the region. The White House’s increased involvement is above all related to its inability to contain international pressure over the war in the embattled enclave, as evidenced by Washington’s latest decision not to use its veto right against the UN Security Council resolution on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on March 25.
Additionally, the recent high-profile tragedy where an Israeli airstrike killed humanitarian workers from the World Central Kitchen (WCK) only further muddied the waters around the conflict. In particular, on the eve of the presidential election, the Biden administration is interested in ending the Middle Eastern conflict as soon as possible, wary of it escalating further.
One shouldn’t expect any real concessions from either side due to a general lack of trust about conditions being observed under any agreement, political scientist Farkhad Ibragimov of the economics department at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN) told Izvestia.
"The situation is highly complex because the actions of each side seriously diverge from their initial statements. I think, one shouldn’t expect any concessions, chances are rather slim," he thinks.
According to the expert, a lot depends on the negotiator, a role currently being played by Egypt. Both the Israeli side and representatives from the Palestinian movement view Cairo with distrust due to a complicated historical past, Ibragimov added.
Izvestia: Cameron travels to US in bid to secure more Ukraine aid
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron’s visit to the US saw him meet not only with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken but also presidential hopeful Donald Trump. This indicates that not everyone in London believes that Joe Biden’s re-election is a slam dunk, experts polled by Izvestia said. Expectedly, the talks focused on Ukraine and attempts to convince the White House and Republicans to push a bill through earmarking more aid for the Kiev regime.
The issue of financing for Ukraine is at the forefront for European countries. They have so far provided $184 bln in aid, with London’s share being $15 bln. Up to now, the US has given $74 bln to Kiev. The uncertainty around receiving future aid also has Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky changing his tune, as he is now publicly speculating on the Ukrainian army’s defeat.
It is precisely this deadlocked situation that necessitated extra diplomatic efforts, including on the part of Cameron, thinks Igor Kovalev, first deputy dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Politics at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University).
"Cameron traveled to the US to sort out the problems facing the UK and even the entire European continent as to what to do next with providing aid to Ukraine because currently the US is trying to pass the burden of responsibility, above all, the financial one, on to its European allies. The UK and EU countries simply don’t have enough of their own finances and Cameron is trying to resolve this keystone issue. However, in my opinion, prospects in this direction are rather murky," the expert told Izvestia.
The meeting between Cameron and Trump which took place before the official part of the visit has special significance.
It seems that the discussion involved convincing the presidential candidate to help pass a bill which would earmark $60 bln in aid for Kiev. And overall, these attempts may prove fruitful, thinks Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University) The only issue is the price Trump is willing to pay.
"The Republicans want to provide the money but in such a way so as to inflict a political defeat on Joe Biden. In order to do so, a different bill should be passed, not the one approved by the Senate. Meanwhile, Biden has his own victory plans, needing Congress to approve the bill as is. Bargaining is underway between the Democrats and Republicans. Apparently, Cameron is attempting to take part in this bargaining process somehow, so he is negotiating both with Trump and the White House representatives," Suslov explained.
However, the meeting between Cameron and Trump may signal something else: London likely does not believe that the Democrats will retain the White House after the next presidential election, Kovalev thinks.
Vedomosti: AUKUS partnership in no hurry to expand
Expanding the AUKUS military partnership (Australia, the UK and US) is not being considered at this point, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on April 9. That said, he stressed that growing military ties with Japan was on the table. Albanese also is considering what is known as AUKUS’ second component as a possible cooperation track with Tokyo which includes working together on quantum technologies, artificial intelligence, cyber security as well as the development of submarine and hypersonic technologies, unrelated to the nuclear component (the first component involved a deal on selling nuclear subs to Australia).
Speculation about Japan joining AUKUS took off on the eve of the summit between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held on April 10. Later, on April 11, they will be joined by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Together they will discuss security issues in the South China Sea. In addition to Japan, the media is monitoring a rapprochement between AUKUS and Canada.
AUKUS was created on September 15, 2021. It is thought that the partnership’s main goal is to contain China. The US needs AUKUS to simultaneously compete with China and reduce the cost of keeping a nuclear submarine fleet, explained Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). However, despite the potential cost savings, bringing more countries into the fray at this stage will only complicate the initiative’s effectiveness.
For example, the accession of technologically advanced Japan will naturally redefine the roles within the bloc, something at least two out of three current members, Australia and the UK, do not want. As for Canada purchasing submarines, a separate approval from the US Congress is needed for that. Additionally, there is no consensus among the Canadian people on creating a nuclear submarine fleet, which means a longer decision-making process on this matter.
As opposed to NATO, AUKUS is not a military alliance but a partnership based on scientific and technical and industrial cooperation without any mutual defense obligations, explained Alexander Alyoshin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS). The US, Japan and Australia are already developing military cooperation on a bilateral basis, they do not need to be members of some specific organization to do so. AUKUS is unlikely to grow into a military alliance in the coming years because first they need to fulfill the tasks of the first component: provide nuclear subs to Australia, which won’t happen before the end of the next decade. The expansion of this component at the expense of including new countries is also unlikely because it may put off other countries in the region who are concerned about the risk of violating non-proliferation norms, the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Zelensky’s presidential authority in limbo after May 20
The presidential term of Vladimir Zelensky, elected in Ukraine in 2019, will expire on May 20, however, no presidential election has been held. According to Kiev’s stance, this is due to martial law in the country. It has been in effect since February 24, 2022 and the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) has been extending it every three months, the last time being on February 6, until May 13. Martial law (Article 19 of the Ukrainian Constitution) directly prohibits amendments to the constitution as well as any presidential, parliamentary or local elections under such conditions. The parliament seconds that: on November 30, 2023, all faction leaders signed a memorandum on holding the election after the hostilities ended.
The West will not say a word about the legitimacy of Zelensky’s authority after May 20, thinks Igor Shishkin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries. According to him, nothing will change for the West once Zelensky’s term expires - the Ukrainian president is controlled completely by the EU and US so there cannot be any mythical "third maidan" which Moscow is purportedly trying to orchestrate. Zelensky’s decrees will also not be recognized as illegitimate after May 20. According to Shishkin, the main player in the current political situation is the US and it alone has the power to replace Zelensky.
There can be no anti-Zelensky "maidan" because the Ukrainian people still largely support him while the only person capable of knocking him from his post, ex-Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny, was removed from the political field, noted Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
Ukrainian legislation can always be changed in such a way so de jure Zelensky will remain a legitimate president after May 20, said Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS). Yet de facto he has already become a dictator, controlling the media, so even if the election was held, he would have won it. Essentially, Zelensky will be an interim president until the next election when the West may trot out Zaluzhny as an alternative to him, the expert concluded.
Kommersant: Russian oil exports surge in March, highest since May 2023
According to Kommersant, in March, Russian oil companies significantly increased seaborne exports amid problems with loading oil refineries to 3.8 mln barrels per day, the highest level since May 2023. The substantial hike in oil exports is related to the redistribution of flows from oil refining plants damaged by drones. In April, Russia will decrease oil production and exports due to its obligations to OPEC+.
Given the difficulties of increasing oil refining at least until June and the seasonal maintenance of oil refining plants, Russian oil companies will have to decrease production due to obligations under the OPEC+ deal, said Viktor Katona at commodities data and analytics firm Kpler. The Energy Ministry has already instructed the oil companies to do so. The only question is whether production will be reduced by the entire slated amount of 471,000 barrels per day, or less, the analyst noted.
Given that currently oil production has dropped by 350,000 barrels per day versus the beginning of the year, production cuts are likely to be about 350,000-400,000 barrels per day, that is, slightly less than needed, the expert added. Gradually, as the production decreases, seaborne oil exports will drop to the usual 3.5 mln per day, as during the recent months, he concluded.
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