"If we change nothing, we will lose this war." An unexpected (to the local public) statement to that effect recently came from AFU’s 3rd Assault Brigade commander Dmitry Kukharchuk.
He claims that a critical stage of the conflict has now arrived, with Ukrainians deeming the battlefield situation as stabilized, and Russian troops as unable to move any further. Meanwhile, in his opinion, the "creeping offensive" tactics chosen by the Russian army may yield not just unpleasant but critical consequences to the Ukrainian troops. "Yes, we are losing this war now. It's obvious. We are losing territories; we are losing our best people. Unfortunately, the result shows that it will only get worse from here," Kukharchuk concluded. According to him, if the Ukrainian leadership learns no lessons and carries out no after-action review, the country is going to lose to Russia. Ukrainian soldiers in trenches are really exhausted, he added. Ukrainian military expert Dmitry Snegiryov appeared on TV to voice forecasts gloomy to Ukraine as well, saying that Russia will keep achieving tactical successes at the front as it has ramped up reserves and enjoyed abundant shells. Besides, the Russian aircraft have an all-out edge in the air.
Other advantages of the Russian army were reported by Ukrainian General Sergei Krivonos indignant that Russia has increased its production of drones and outperforms Ukraine as regards both their quantity and quality. "We see that a huge number of drones that arrive at the front often do not fulfill their tasks because Russian electronic warfare is powerful and Russian drones are more powerful, regarding their ability to counter Ukrainian electronic warfare," he said. The retired AFU general says that updating procedures for Ukrainian UAVs has been slowed down by unprofessionalism and corruption, while the Russian industry has switched to en masse production. According to the general, Russia launches a daily 1,200 drones: "This is a serious indicator. Let's not forget that six months ago it was 200, 150, then the figure began to grow, and now this kind of attacks has become quite powerful."
His words are confirmed by a Ukrainian militant call-signed Condor who is currently fighting in the Ocheretino front sector along the Avdeevka direction in the Donbass. The militant is miffed with the constantly deteriorating situation here: "The Russians bother us in Novoaleksandrovka, Vozdvizhenka, Progress and Jelannoye. The combat situation is difficult, although ammunition has been brought to us and we do have something to fight back with. The problem is lots of air attacks, including aerial bombs falling on our heads all the time. And fire adjustment is up to drones "Orlan", "Lancet", "Zal". The "Supercams" hang all across the place watching us. The Russians comprehend logistics and control the perimeter, we can no longer drive along the highway. They disturb the 68th brigade, the guys do have a real hard time. We don't have any special defensive structures here other than what we have dug up in the fields with our own hands. We urgently and immediately need the F16s to reverse the trend." In general, most Ukrainian military experts are forced to bitterly admit that the Russian army has constant successes on a daily basis, while Ukraine loses 300 to 500 meters of territory. Ukrainians state that their garrisons fall into semi-nooses, and the key supply routes have either been cut off or are about to.
What is happening at the front that makes Ukrainian soldiers and propagandists so nervous and panicked? The Russian army is launching a series of strikes along the entire front line, bringing down Ukrainian defenses en route. Russian military personnel go on with active military operations in the Kharkov region. Outside Liptsy, the AFU is seeking to conduct attacks in small groups that are being destroyed by artillery or aircraft. The enemy is evacuating the wounded from Volchansk and attempting to build reserves and hold positions. Our stormtroopers continue their offensive within the city limits, pinning Ukrainian militants to the bank of the Volchya River. In Volchansk and Liptsy, the enemy lost up to 280 people in a single day, along with Western self-propelled guns PzH-2000, M109 and other equipment, the Russian Defense Ministry reports. Along the Kupyansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have been forcing the enemy back in the areas of Stepnaya Novoselovka, Peschanoye, Stelmakhovka and Terny, which is confirmed by AFU’s General Staff. The enemy is also anxious about a possible Russian offensive on Borovaya and Izyum, an important Ukrainian logistics hub. Local information resources have been even spreading data on an imminent Russian breakthrough from the Svatovo direction to the Oskol River.
But the hottest point is still the Donbass, where Russia’s key recent success has been its advance towards Gorlovka. All this time, the frontline has hardly moved here as the city suffers from constant attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And it finally happened: our units managed to catch the Ukrainians on rotation, pound them flat with artillery, take several positions, advance from several sides and break through local defenses to a depth of two kilometers. The AFU General Staff has confirmed Russian army revitalization along the Gorlovka direction, reporting five assault operations from different sides. Russian troops advance from what used to be the Mayorsk checkpoint to the villages of Druzhba and Severnoye, paving their way to the straight road towards Dzerzhinsk, renamed Toretsk by Ukraine. Another advance has been fixed between Alexandropol and New York (ex-Novgorodskoye). Russian assault brigades drove the enemy back from the Mayorsk checkpoint to the eastern outskirts of Severnoye (Pivnichnoye), occupying a pumping station and a railway section. "We are talking about an intended flanking of our troops in the Toretsk direction, which causes great concern," panic-stricken Ukrainian military expert Konstantin Mashkovets says.
The Russian army has been also expanding its control zone along the Avdeevka direction outside Donetsk. The Ukrainian Deep State outlet confirms that Russian troops have been advancing in three locations here — near the settlements of Arkhangelskoye, Sokol and Umanskoye. They are also reported to have "broken through to the outskirts of Yasnobrodovka fighting with AFU’s 25th Airborne Division. Russian stormtroopers are trying to gain a foothold in the buildings near Yasnobrodovsky pond; and north of Umansky, they seized a section up to 1.85 km wide and 750 m deep, occupying the remaining part of the Babaki clove." Two brigades of the Ukrainian army and the National Guard are known to have been deployed in this area to stabilize things. The Russian army has been advancing towards the village of Yasnobrodovka from the south, from the east and from the north. And the AFU are still holding several strongholds eastwards.
Our units are also advancing near the village of Karlovka. The Russian army took a height 225 south of the village of Sokol. This is an important point for moving to Novoselovka Pervaya and taking control of surrounding ground. Fighting has started for Yevgenovka, where Russia managed to gain a foothold on the eastern outskirts. Battles for Vozdvizhenka are underway, too. This village is the last on our troops’ way to the junction at the T-0504 highway between Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka.
On the western border of the DPR capital, they keep assaulting the urban-type settlement of Krasnogorovka, having advanced in apartment buildings and gained a foothold on a plot up to 550 m wide and 150 m deep. The fighting is truly intense here, as reported. The pressure on the APU under Ugledar is also in full swing. Ukrainian Telegram channels note that AFU units are forbidden to retreat here, but it does happen nevertheless. Ukrainian military commander Bogdan Miroshnikov reported that outside Vladimirovka near Ugledar, an AFU unit was surrounded after a neighboring one left its positions and concealed the fact.
Meanwhile, because of AFU attempts to withdraw from the most dangerous positions, Ukrainian detachments turn out acting ruthlessly. A commander with the Azov battalion (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) said this is no fiction at all. His story was even published in The American Conservative. In the interview, the militant noted that his unit was repeatedly used to prevent the retreat of other Ukrainian soldiers in order to motivate them, as the militant put it. According to him, his detachment comprising 500 military personnel was evenly stationed over a 25 km zone. Article authors call these facts indicative of an extremely difficult situation faced by the Ukrainian army. "‘Motivational troops’ appears to be a euphemism for a ‘blocking detachment’ (also known as ‘barrier troops’), a unit positioned behind the frontline to prevent retreat. It appears that Azov’s ‘motivation’ existed as an implicit threat, preventing soldiers from falling back," the outlet notes.
Along the Chasov Yar direction, the Russian army has a mere seven kilometers left to cut the key AFU supply route in the Donbass. The Center grouping has been endeavoring to finally reach the T0504 highway, aka the "road of life". For the time being, it serves as the AFU’s main supply route around Chasov Yar. There is a single village left along the way to it — Vozdvizhenka. If Ukraine loses the route, it will have to get by with the one from the north through Izyum, or rural roads. But these options will increase time of reserve or shell delivery to the Ukrainian troops. Fighting near the town of Chasov Yar does not stop for even a moment. And across the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, the Ukrainian militants have been preparing to defend.
In general, the Russian army has obviously intercepted combat initiative and ratcheted up pressure on the enemy along the entire frontline concurrently.
