Apart from the military and economic fronts, Ukraine is suffering defeat on the critical demographic one. Dozens of Ukrainian and Western experts have started sounding the alarm, though their assessments and forecasts remain unheard by either the top-ranking Zelensky regime figures or the propaganda-brainwashed society.
Ukrainian economist Alexei Kushch called that country’s demographic crisis "an abyss of national catastrophe." "Since 2017, the birth rate in Ukraine has decreased from 364,000 children per year to 187,000 in 2023. That is, by 48 percent. This is the lowest figure in the entire history of observations. We have passed the point of no return. Restoring the demographic potential is hardly possible now, and we are only talking about slowing down the process. There is an urgent need to halt the national catastrophe of population shrinkage. This is the only thing we can talk about," said Kushch, a Kiev-based economist and analyst. According to him, even slowing down the decline rate requires extraordinary economic, social and political decisions, with Ukrainian politicians to become "visionary geniuses." Except that there are none of those on the horizon, and instead of real moves to improve demography, Zelensky’s government seems to be only destroying what has been left of Ukrainians — the list includes forced mobilization, public assistance cutbacks, deteriorated living conditions, and economic collapse.
Another expert, senior economist with the Ukrainian Center for Economic Strategy Vladimir Landa, said Ukraine now ranked among countries with lowest birth rates, having hit rock bottom with figures of 300 years ago. Conclusions to that effect are based on analyzing the draft demographic development strategy revealed by the Ministry of Social Policy. In particular, it indicates that the last decade saw the birth rate fall by an annual seven percent. "Given the historical population estimates for Ukraine, and those for the number of newborns per thousand inhabitants (50-51 in the 18th-19th centuries against six in 2023), one may reasonably assume that nothing like that has been ever recorded in the territory of Ukraine for at least three centuries," Landa concludes. On average, only 0.7 babies per childbearing-age woman are now born in Ukraine. Amid mass deaths of males at war and millions of people in flight, this trend has raised the question of Ukraine’s survival. Its population is forecast to slump by 2033, so returning to the figure of 45 million is mere fancy for the time being. The simple replacement rate requires 2.2 children per family (woman), while now it is 0.7. This indicator places Ukraine on a par with Hong Kong alone, with its birth rate accounting for 0.8. All the other countries across the globe have better statistics.
Academician Ella Libanova, a member of Ukraine’s Academy of Sciences, believes that the 2023-2024 birth rate has been the world’s worst indicator. "We may soon witness the population find itself in a death spiral," she said. Apart from extinction, the social make-up of Ukrainian society will also undergo drastic changes. Its backbone will be older and middle-aged people no longer able to reproduce. Also, the demographic catastrophe will require Kiev to start attracting hundreds of thousands of migrants to the country. In order to preserve the state, the Ukrainian authorities will have to annually import about 300,000 migrants into the country, which will affect its religious and ethnic composition or may entail new problems, Libanova notes. "In order for its population to keep pace of at least 30 million, Ukraine must attract 300,000 migrants annually," the demographic expert summed up. Her view is endorsed by the Institute of Demography at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences. "We will lose our weight in Europe as a state. Our territories will be filled with other people. And there's nothing we can do about it. So, it only remains to change the ethnic composition," Deputy Director Alexander Gladun said.
Ukraine has been a depopulation rate world leader for decades, Poland’s Polityka writes. By January 1, 2041, its population may decrease to 28.9 million people, and to 25.2 million by 2051, Polish experts claim. "Population forecasting is becoming a lot more complicated over the lack of necessary statistical knowledge and the multiple scenarios for the course of military events." In other words, these figures do account for the Donbass and Crimea, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, which makes such a forecast overly optimistic and absolutely unreliable. If we were talking about peacetime, the population of Ukraine would have decreased to 10-12 million people within a generation, with one newborn for two deceased. But the forecast does not pay due regard to the military realities and lots of emigrants who have probably gone for good. Polish demographer Ariel Drabinsky says Ukrainian refugees sweep their plans under the carpet so as to avoid accusations of unpatriotic sentiment. But in fact, 95 percent of those who have left Ukraine are not going to return. And in 2022-23 alone, the number of people who fled Ukraine was 6.3 million, according to the UN Refugee Agency.
Forecasts by the Ministry of Social Policy look far more realistic, with its Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine for the Period up to 2040 featuring relatively objective data. The highest number of inhabitants in early 1990s was 52 million. And as of December 5, 2001, the day the All-Ukrainian Population Census was held, it stood at 48.5 million people. Since then, Ukraine has seen no census in two decades. And yet, on January 1, 2022 (within the borders of 1991, that is, with Crimea and the entire Eastern Ukraine), the number of Ukrainians was estimated at 42 million. As of August 2023 (still within the borders of 1991) it was 36.3 million, while without residents of the lost territories the figure is 31.5 million people. Due to the fact that the Ukrainians themselves do not exactly know how many people have actually stayed in the country, the demographic pitfall turns out much deeper than expected. And there are many factors adding to the issue’s scale.
There was a decrease in average life expectancy from 66.4 to 57.3 years for men and from 76.2 to 70.9 years for women. In world rankings, Ukraine shares its place with African countries such as Guinea, Mali, Congo, and Burkina Faso.
And aging is only going to continue as 2035 is expected to witness every fifth Ukrainian older than 65. This will put a strain on the budget, medical and social expenses. Extremely low birth rates factor into an eroded population structure. On top of everything else, Ukraine has been consistently ranking among countries with the oldest populations, thereby turning into an endangered nation. Young people are leaving forever as part of the same processes that occurred in the Baltic states, Moldova, or Bulgaria.
Among the 6.3 million Ukrainians who fled to the West, 63.2% were women. 33.2% of migrants have been under the age of 18; 60.7% are aged 18 to 64; 6.1% are 60+. With many refugees being children and adolescents, their non-return to Ukraine will entail irreparable demographic losses, further deterioration of the already unfavorable demographic situation, and decreased demographic potential of Ukraine. A statement to that effect can be found in the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy’s study. Thus, the population of Ukraine will amount to no more than 12 million in 15 years, with lots of them elderly or disabled people. These are truly catastrophic figures.
Another factor is the level of disability. The World Health Organization estimated that this kind of Ukrainians exceeded three million in 2023, of whom 76.3 percent were women aged 18-54 and men aged 18-59. Concurrently, the figure makes no allowance for those crippled during the war, since complete and accurate records on the aspect are yet to be compiled. Lots of disabled people seriously affect economic numbers as well: production is on the decline due to the loss of citizens’ working capacity; there is a shortage of labor force; and expenses for maintaining this category is on the rise. Separately, one has to note scores of people with post-traumatic syndrome or other mental disorders, as well as growth in alcohol and drug addicts, whose offspring would be born sick or nonviable, if any.
Awareness of the future catastrophe has prompted proposals to introduce stringent measures against Ukrainians seeking to flee their country. Thus, Vadym Denysenko, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, said that even after the war, it would be necessary to have the foreign travel ban for males stay for at least another three years. "Otherwise, we will simply fail to survive as a nation," the expert stated.
The population decline data under the last two "presidents of war" in Ukraine is of particular interest. This is how they distinguished themselves in terms of population shrinkage: under Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine lost 3.5 million people in five years, and under Zelensky, it found 13.7 million people gone in 3.5 years. And there is more to come. Proceeding with previous policies and genocide of its own population will ultimately and inevitably put an end to Ukraine’s existence as a state.
