Donald Trump clinches the Republican nomination and chooses James Vance to be his running mate; the Cold War echoes as US missile plans spark fears of a new arms race; and Japan to leave country's ban on sending lethal weapons to Ukraine intact.These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Media: Donald Trump wins Republican nomination, picks James Vance to be VP
Donald Trump has been confirmed as the Republican Party’s choice for the upcoming US presidential election at a party convention. Experts and the media believe that the ex-president’s chances of winning the election have increased following the failed assassination attempt on him at a rally in Pennsylvania, Izvestia writes.
One of the main questions at the convention was who Trump would name as his vice president. He eventually picked Senator James David Vance, a staunch Republican, as his running mate. Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, believes that the move was a shrewd one. "Unlike 2016, Trump is forming a team of like-minded people. Mike Pence, his previous vice president, wasn’t like that, while Vance is seen as his kindred spirit more than any other prominent and influential Republican senators," the expert noted. If a Trumpist becomes vice president, the Republican party will strongly rally around Trump, he added.
"In the eyes of Republicans, Trump is a hero, a martyr and a victim of conspiracy. This will definitely raise his chances of winning the upcoming election. As Republicans are consolidating, the Democratic Party looks pathetic," Suslov pointed out. Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics, is of the same opinion. "I think his chances for support among Republican and swing voters have certainly risen," he said.
Meanwhile, US media outlets report that Democrats have softened pressure on incumbent President Joe Biden, Vedomosti writes. One of the reasons behind this reduced criticism is that there’s not much time left before Biden’s confirmation as the Democratic presidential candidate, Grigory Yarygin, associate professor with the Department for American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, explained. "The assassination attempt on Trump and the Republican Convention will dominate the headlines for now, and after that, Democrats will have few chances to persuade Biden to withdraw from the race," the expert said. He emphasized that replacing Biden after his nomination would damage the party’s image even more.
Izvestia: Cold War echoes as US missile plans spark fears of new arms race
The US still hopes to conclude another strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia, Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration at the US Air Force Andrew Gebara said on July 15. Moscow has repeatedly highlighted the need for a comprehensive solution to the global security issue but Washington is moving in the opposite direction, planning to start deploying new fires capabilities in Germany in 2026, Izvestia writes.
The main question is whether the US army will receive hypersonic weapons by 2026. Nevertheless, analysts agree that the White House’s plans are the latest step towards destroying the arms control regime. The process began in the early 2000s after the US had pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and deployed launchers in Eastern European countries. In August 2019, after the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty had in fact ceased to exist, Moscow called for a moratorium on the deployment of such weapons but the US ignored the initiative.
The German government has some sway with the US on the matter, Artyom Sokolov, a researcher with the European Studies Institute at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said. "However, at the current stage, the German leadership is not interested in de-escalating NATO’s relations with Russia by itself, which is why it is just making statements alleging that plans to deploy new weapons to the country don’t mean a rise in tensions," the expert pointed out.
The situation looks a lot like the missile crises of the past, but this time around, things could be even more dangerous, Sergey Yermakov, leading analyst at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, noted. "Right now, we are only talking about Germany, but more countries may join the process in the future," he explained.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament) Committee on International Affairs, stated that Russia could respond to the deployment of long-range weapons in Germany by considering the possibility of deploying its own missiles in Cuba, North Korea, Nicaragua or Venezuela. Analysts say that this would be the final move in the military and technical response that Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about back in 2021, and it will eventually force the West to sit down and talk about a new global security architecture.
Izvestia: Japan stands firm on lethal weapons ban to Ukraine
Tokyo does not intend to change its stance on lethal weapons supplies to Ukraine, which remain banned, an official at the Japanese embassy in Russia told Izvestia. However, Tokyo will continue to provide assistance to Kiev based on the country’s constitution, the official added.
After World War II, Japan adopted a pacifist policy towards international conflicts. But recently, Tokyo has started to depart from these principles. In December 2023, the Japanese government eased its ban on lethal weapons exports. Now, Japan can supply up to 80 types of such weapons and their components manufactured under foreign licenses back to those countries. This made it possible to hand Patriot interceptor missiles over to Washington, which the US had asked for in order to replenish its own reserves depleted due to assistance to Ukraine.
"Japan is gradually dropping a wide range of restrictions on weapons exports, and the process has accelerated because of what is happening in Ukraine. However, Japan is wary of becoming a party to the conflict, so it is trying to maintain some channels for relations with Russia. On the other hand, Japan’s current ruling circles, especially Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, believe that their actions and support [for Ukraine] are raising their international credibility. This is a way for them to score points in the eyes of the US and its allies," Vladimir Nelidov, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, explained. However, the expert stressed that Japan was not looking to become Washington's vassal, instead wanting a partnership based on compromise.
Notably, relations with Moscow will have little bearing on weapons exports. The main difficulty lies with the existing legal framework, which in fact will have to be overhauled at some point, Dmitry Streltsov, head of Department for Asian Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said. "Everything depends on how the existing laws are interpreted. Today, some formulas for cooperation with NATO, the US and G7 nations are possible, which may involve Japanese technology. I don’t think it’s likely that Japan will start direct weapons supplies to Ukraine in the short term, but the ban may be lifted in the future," Streltsov pointed out.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: France finds itself in political quagmire post-election
On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron intends to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal due to his election as head of the Renaissance presidential party’s parliamentary faction. After that, the French president will launch consultations to choose a new premier, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Attal, Macron’s protege, decided to step down following the announcement of the July 7 parliamentary elections outcome. The New Popular Front, a hastily formed leftist coalition, received 182 seats, the pro-presidential centrist alliance Together for the Republic gained 168 seats, and a coalition led by the far-right National Rally got 143 seats. None of the political forces was able to win the majority of 289 seats in the lower house of parliament. French media outlets point out that the Fifth Republic has not seen such a situation since its establishment in 1958.
Macron is in no hurry to appoint a new prime minister before a ruling coalition is formed. The new premier needs to win the trust of parliament, which will be hard to do in the current circumstances. According to Natalia Lapina, head of the Department of Global Problems at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences, the problem is that Marcon has not accepted his party’s defeat in the election and called on all of the country’s political forces supporting the Republic, parliamentarism and European construction "to engage in honest dialogue" in order to build a solid majority. "The head of state’s strategy is clearly aimed at splitting the New Popular Front," Lapina noted, adding: "However, it remains to be seen whether Macron will be able to make any headway with this initiative."
France is more likely to enter a so-called "cohabitation" period with the president and the parliamentary majority belonging to opposing political camps. The country has already been through three such periods, with the previous one lasting from 1997 to 2002. Still, the previous periods were relatively calm for the government as differences between the center-right and the center-left weren’t fatal. However, today, the picture is different because contradictions between the centrists, the leftist coalition and the far-right are too great on issues such as the economic policy, taxes, pension reform, migration, France’s EU and NATO membership, support for Israel and Ukraine.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Analysts downplay impact of dip in Russian oil exports
Russian maritime oil exports have been declining since late April 2024, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes, citing data from Finland’s Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Experts believe that this drop in exports will not affect Russian budget revenues because the industry’s taxes depend on oil production and a reduction in output stemming from the OPEX+ deal was included in the budget.
Meanwhile, data coming out of the West should be taken with a grain of salt. For instance, Bloomberg reported a drop in the physical volumes of Russian maritime oil exports as late as in July, while according to S&P Global Platts, Russia’s maritime oil exports even rose in June.
Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko points out that the Russian maritime oil industry has weathered these storms before. Similar drops in supplies were recorded in late January 2024 and also earlier. The situation eventually improved, and the same is likely to happen this time as well, Dudchenko said.
Russia made additional commitments to reduce oil production in the second quarter of the year, Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, explained. This is why oil output is indeed supposed to be at the lowest level in recent years. Still, according to available data, Russia did not fully implement "the reduction plan" in April and May and promised "to do better" in the next few months, fulfilling all of its obligations. That said, expectations were that the summer months would see the greatest decline in oil output and exports.
The current production drop is more likely a factor stabilizing oil and gas revenues, Andrianov went on to say. The Russian budget takes the country’s OPEC+ obligations into account so there can be no shocks. On the other hand, OPEC+’s actions make it possible to keep oil prices stable and high, which also brings in more money for Russia. The expert notes that OPEC+ nations, including Russia, will be able to start increasing oil output in October, even though the existing restrictions may be extended if the market situation goes south.
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