Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race; huge losses on frontlines have Ukraine thinking peace; and Bangladesh seeks to quell unrest over civil service quotas. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Biden drops out of presidential race, makes way for Kamala Harris
It looks as if Vice President Kamala Harris will get her shot at the US presidency, experts interviewed by Izvestia say. US President Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, backing Harris as his replacement. She will now be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination as the party tries to get its ducks in a row before the convention, where it will tap an official candidate.
Republican and former Pennsylvania Senator Bruce Marks told Izvestia that the Biden move was expected, as he simply could not win the election, and everybody in the United States knew it. He believes that Harris, however, being a weaker candidate than Biden, doesn’t have much of a chance against Trump.
"Biden made the right decision for the Democratic Party, because he is simply incapable of running a campaign, let alone serving as president for another term," President of the American University in Moscow Edward Lozansky told the newspaper. "As far as the Biden presidency is concerned, it has turned out to be a huge failure in terms of foreign policy. The situation around Ukraine and the deterioration of relations with Russia are largely on him," he added. The expert believes that Moscow and Washington can be expected to open a dialogue under the new White House administration.
Despite Trump’s claims that he would have an easy time dispensing with Harris, the Democrats are in a better spot with Biden withdrawing from the race, Lozansky noted. Given the unspoken consensus within the party about the candidacy of 59-year-old Harris, her nomination is all but assured. Moreover, the Vice President has already been endorsed by the Clintons.
"In these three remaining months, Harris can make some headway if she plays her cards right," Program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council Konstantin Sukhoverkhov told Izvestia.
Saeed Khan, professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, believes that other potential presidential candidates are likely to run for Vice President of the United States.
At the same time, Democrats in Congress say that they want to conduct an open process for selecting a candidate from the party, and not just appoint Kamala Harris by default, NBC News writes. If the party fails to select a new nominee, the Democrats may have to hold their first open convention since 1968.
Izvestia: Frontline failures pushing Kiev to seek conflict resolution
Since the beginning of July, the Russian Armed Forces have liberated nine settlements, while Ukraine in the last week alone has lost more than 5,000 servicemen and over 220 pieces of equipment. Experts told Izvestia that Russian troops continue to exert strong pressure on the Ukrainian armed forces and hold the initiative, which allows them to dictate where the fighting occurs and achieve success. The difficult situation and constant failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are pushing Ukraine and its Western allies toward peace negotiations, experts believe.
There is no doubt that the Russian army has the initiative on the ground, where it is imposing its will on the enemy, military expert Vladislav Shurygin told the newspaper. "We are constantly pushing the enemy back. Every battle in the last six months has been aimed at getting the Ukrainian forces off their positions. This allows us to save people and not suffer heavy casualties. In addition, our tactical successes are growing, laying the ground for further successful actions," he said.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in such dire straits that any cessation in military assistance or a reduction in the supply of personnel through mobilization could lead to the front beginning to crumble, military expert Alexey Leonkov told Izvestia.
The failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the obvious impasse in resolving the conflict due to the West's support for Ukraine, are forcing it to look for a solution. Just as the first "peaceful" summit on Ukraine ended, its participants, including even Kiev, started talking about a second one. The press service of the Swiss Foreign Ministry, answering a question from Izvestia, emphasized that any peace process without Russia simply does not make sense. That said, Moscow has not yet received any official invitation or requests in regard to the second international conference on Ukraine.
Ukraine’s military failures are forcing the West to be more realistic about how much help Ukraine actually needs to win, professor at Cornell University in New York Richard Bancel noted.
Western leaders continue to delude themselves into believing that a military victory for Ukraine is still possible, despite glaring shortages in manpower and ammunition, as well as the sharp decline in Ukrainian morale, History Professor at American University in Washington Peter Kuznick told Izvestia. Support for this hard-line stance is waning around the world, he said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Supreme Court tries to halt bloodshed in Bangladesh
Bangladesh's Supreme Court slashed quotas for government jobs on Sunday after a 30% quota set for the descendants of independence fighters angered students, which led to protests and clashes in the capital. The army and police, called to restore order in the streets of Dhaka, opened fire at protesters. More than 150 people were killed. Meanwhile, Russia, which is building a nuclear power plant in the country in cooperation with India, has a vested interest in a stabilization of the situation, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
The Supreme Court's decision to abolish said quotas is expected to help restore peace in the country of 170 mln people. Unemployment is rampant in the nation, which was part of Pakistan until 1971. It gained independence after a bloody guerrilla war and Indian intervention.
At first glance, the situation in the country doesn’t seem to affect Russia's interests. But the Soviet Union was involved, albeit indirectly, in the victory of the national liberation movement in the former province of Pakistan. And today Moscow is helping Bangladesh build the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. In addition to designing and building the nuclear power plant, Russia has pledged to put it into operation and train specialists.
Associate Professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Velichkin told the newspaper: "The current events are an attempt by the opposition, both systemic and non-systemic, to return to the political field after the victory of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party in the January elections. Before the elections, the United States and the West tried to put pressure on the Prime Minister under the pretext of protecting human rights. But Sheikh Hasina did not succumb to the pressure, relying on the country's two neighbors - India and China. In my opinion, the Prime Minister will be able to keep order. Besides, the opposition is not united."
"As for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, everyone in the country understands that it is absolutely necessary. There is a consensus. The US tried to slow down the project with sanctions, but India became a participant in the project. Now it is a Russian-Indian-Bangladeshi project," the expert added.
Vedomosti: Ukraine, EU lean on Azerbaijan to get gas transit deal done with Russia
Baku is negotiating with Moscow to maintain the transit of Russian gas to Europe through the territory of Ukraine, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said. According to him, Ukrainian authorities and the European Union asked him to help get a deal done with Russia before the agreement expires at the end of 2024. Baku's mediation could boost the country's international image and provide additional revenues, experts told Vedomosti.
In addition, the Azerbaijani leader stressed that countries such as Austria and Slovakia would be in "serious trouble" if Russian gas supplies through Ukraine were cut off, as they would have to pay "hundreds of millions of dollars or more" to replace Russian gas with other sources.
Baku's mediation will help its international reputation and could bring additional money into the country against the backdrop of decreasing oil exports, expert on military security issues in the South Caucasus states Niyazi Niyazov told the newspaper. According to him, Russia and Azerbaijan are not competitors for the European gas market.
In theory, interested parties could exclude Naftogaz from the system of transporting Russian gas to Europe and replace it with a European company or, for example, Azerbaijani company Socar, Deputy General Director of the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach told Vedomosti.
However, the expert believes that Socar would not physically be able to replace the entire volume of Russian gas on the European market, even if Baku redirects all its gas exports to Turkey (about 10 bcm) to European consumers. In his opinion, Ankara could help by transporting Iranian gas. But this would also mean an increase in the volume of deliveries of Russian fuel to the Turkish market, the expert noted.
Vedomosti: Bank of Russia may raise key rate to 18%
Following their most recent meeting on June 7, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to keep the interest rate at 16% once again, the fourth time they have done so. At the same time, the regulator gave a clear signal to the market, indicating a likely increase in July. Analysts interviewed by Vedomosti believe, after a seven-month pause, the regulator will again move to tighten monetary policy and raise the key rate at its next meeting on July 26.
Accelerated inflation, "stubbornly high" inflationary expectations from the population and companies, as well as continued high rates of credit growth "require not warnings, but real action," Chief Economist at Expert RA rating agency Anton Tabakh told the newspaper. He believes that the Bank of Russia will raise the interest rate by 200 basis points.
The rise in inflation expectations of businesses and consumers in June indicates a decline in confidence in the regulator's ability to return inflation to the target of 4%, Chief Economist for Russia at Bloomberg Economics Alexander Isakov said. He expects the key rate to rise by 200 - 300 basis points.
Raising the key rate to 17% in the current situation would be a wise decision, Chief Economist at BCS World of Investments Ilya Fedorov told Vedomosti. In his opinion, any other option in the current situation would be associated with many risks, while increasing the rate to 18 - 20% would "squeeze the economy".
The majority of analysts polled by Vedomosti believe that the key rate will not go above 18% in 2024. A general decline may begin in October-December 2024 and reach 16%, Isakov believes.
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