Kiev continues to signal shift in position as it shows openness to Chinese mediation in peace talks with Moscow; Kamala Harris may tweak US foreign policy if elected president; and Iraq wants US troops out of the country. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.

Media: Kiev open to Chinese mediation in peace talks with Moscow

At their recent talks in the Chinese city of Guangzhou, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmitry Kuleba focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, making some headway towards a peaceful resolution. Notably, this was the first China visit by Ukraine’s top diplomat since 2012, Vedomosti writes.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Telegram that Kuleba had informed his Chinese counterpart of Ukraine’s willingness to talk "with Russia at the appropriate time, once Russia is ready to engage in negotiations in good faith." Kiev claims that it sees no such readiness from Moscow at this point. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, in turn, issued a statement saying that "Ukraine is willing and ready to hold talks with Russia." However, there was also a disclaimer that the negotiations need to be rational and practical, with the goal being to achieve "a just and lasting peace."

Speaking about the Ukraine conflict, Wang pointed to the existing risks of escalation and reiterated the principles put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping (the need to prioritize efforts to maintain peace, cool things down, refrain from raising tensions further and reduce the conflict’s negative impact on the global economy). All in all, according to China, the time and conditions for dialogue are not ripe yet, but Beijing is ready to broker a ceasefire.

China has long been trying to act as a mediator: Li Hui, Beijing’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs, has carried out two peace missions since the start of Russia’s special military operation, Alexander Lukin, research director at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China, pointed out. That said, China is seeking to maintain good relations with both parties to the conflict. However, Kiev and Beijing have provided quite different interpretations of the Guangzhou talks, indicating that China and Ukraine may not be on completely the same page, Lukin said.

Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "many parties have recently stepped up diplomatic efforts with regard to the Ukraine issue." "Ukraine has significantly changed its position but we don’t know how profound these changes are. In any case, it’s clear that since Kiev doesn’t have a mechanism for direct communication with Moscow, it is trying to promote communication through China," the expert noted.

Vedomosti: Assessing where US foreign policy could go under Kamala Harris

US Vice President and potential Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may tweak US foreign policy if she wins the November election, Vedomosti writes, citing US media outlets. Most notably, the Wall Street Journal reported that Harris could increase pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the fighting in Gaza.

If Harris is elected, she likely won’t deviate too far from current US President Joe Biden’s strategy, Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian International Affairs Council, said. Some change in policy towards the Middle East is possible but the US has to walk a fine line here as allied relations with Israel are very important for the country, and no US president wants to sour them, he added.

Harris would like to avoid getting on Netanyahu’s bad side so as not to lose the support of Israeli interest groups, Andrey Yevseyenko, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, added. She also may try to revive the Iran nuclear deal or make a new agreement, the expert went on to say. However, this would be next to impossible if the Republican Party gains control over both chambers of the US Congress after the November election. Moreover, Yevseyenko doesn't see Harris entering into a defense pact with Saudi Arabia in return for Riyadh’s recognition of Israel as she would not be willing to make concessions to the Saudis.

One place where Harris could make an impact is in relations with the countries of the Global South, as her ethnic background will only help in this endeavor. Still, most believe that should she be elected, there won’t be a major departure from Biden’s foreign policy.

On the China front, the US will not budge in its strategy, including Washington’s support for Taiwan. Both Democrats and Republicans support increasing pressure on Beijing, and Harris’ potential election will not change that. As for the situation in Ukraine, Harris will seek to shift more of the financial burden on to the countries of Europe, while the US is unlikely to increase assistance to Ukraine, Yevseyenko concluded.

Izvestia: Iraq seeks withdrawal of US troops by fall 2025

Iraqi and US officials have held consultations in Washington. Baghdad is seeking to persuade the US to start withdrawing its troops from the country in September and complete the process by the fall of 2025. However, the US insists that some of its advisors should stay in Iraq, Izvestia notes.

Washington announced the end of its combat mission in Iraq back in 2021, adding that the US would now focus on intelligence exchanges, consultations and the training of security forces. Today, about 2,500 US troops are stationed in Iraq as part of a foreign coalition, and 900 more troops are deployed in neighboring Syria. Since October 2023, US forces have been facing drone and rocket strikes from Shia militias, who call this a response to Israel’s "aggression against the Palestinians." As a result, US troops retaliate against these militia units, which include forces linked to Iran. Given that it’s crucial for Baghdad to maintain relations not only with Washington but also with Tehran, the Iraqi authorities condemn these actions as a violation of the country’s sovereignty.

Middle East expert Andrey Ontikov says that even though terrorist groups are still active in Iraq, the scale of the problem has significantly declined since 2014. "The Americans may well withdraw from the country but in my view, they have to figure two things out. The first is about Syria. They need to make sure that Iraq preserves logistics chains. If the Americans pull out of Iraq, the question will arise of how to provide supplies to US troops in Syria," the expert pointed out. The second concerns Iran’s influence. It is primarily pro-Iranian forces that insist on the withdrawal of US troops, but the Americans would like to prevent Iran from having a monopoly on foreign influence in Iraq.

Danila Krylov, researcher with the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences, notes that regardless of what Baghdad wants and demands, it will not be able to dictate terms to the the Americans. US troops will not leave unless Washington chooses to withdraw them. It’s impossible to force the US to do that, the analyst said. According to him, the link between Iraq and Syria, which has always been crucial for the Americans, is gaining strategic importance amid rising tensions between Israel and its neighbors.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Washington steps up efforts to isolate Central Asia from Moscow, Beijing

The US and the West in general are working harder to pry Central Asian nations away from Russia and China. Visits by American officials and promises of investment make it clear that the policy of separating the countries of the region from Russia is crystallizing, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

In the past ten days, US Acting Special Coordinator for the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment Helaina Matza made visits to both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Given the ongoing political crisis around Ukraine and tough sanctions on Moscow, the importance of transport routes bypassing Russia has greatly increased for the West. That said, Matza’s trip was largely aimed at promoting US efforts to facilitate investment in the infrastructure of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (or the Middle Corridor). US investment activity in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will clearly reduce the region’s infrastructure cooperation with Russia. Taken together, it's clear that the West is turning up the heat on Russia for economic dominance in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

According to Alexander Knyazev, leading expert with the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, "apparently, the US administration has realized that few in Central Asia fear the threat of secondary sanctions". "That said, the Americans are changing their tactics to achieve their main goal of today, which is to distance the countries of the region from Russia and China as much as possible," the expert explained.

"The move comes as their relations with Russia are on the rise and cooperation with China is also developing successfully, primarily based on the pragmatic interests of the countries of the region. Now, the US is putting forward a kind of alternative to these relations," the analyst stressed. According to him, "dropping cooperation with Russia and China will be the condition for Central Asian nations to receive investment, but meeting such demands has very little to do with their national interests."

Another thing to bear in mind is that US foreign economic activities have their own features, Knyazev noted. "Even if some funds are allocated to a country, a large portion of the money remains in the US through certain machinations, the training of local personnel in that country or the US, consultations by American experts and other things. At the end of the day, US investment may fall far behind the benefits that Central Asian countries get from cooperation with Russia, China and other countries of the region," the analyst emphasized.

 Vedomosti: Hungary, Slovakia plan to put pressure on Kiev as Ukraine blocks Russian oil transit

Bratislava may impose sanctions on Kiev in response to Ukraine’s blocking of Russian oil transit to Slovakia and Hungary, Slovak President Peter Pellegrini said. Meanwhile, Bulgaria has offered Hungary assistance in resolving its energy security problems, Vedomosti writes.

Sergey Shein, researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, is skeptical about Sofia’s ability to develop a real solution to the problem alone. "Bulgaria lacks subjectivity so appeals to the European Union are more likely to produce results," Shein said. He believes that Hungary and Slovakia will not impose sanctions on Kiev because both Budapest and Bratislava have to align themselves with the EU’s position on Ukraine.

According to the Hungarian authorities, they have no alternative to Russian oil supplies via Ukraine because there is no pipeline infrastructure in the country except for a section of the Druzhba gas pipeline passing through Ukraine. Budapest is well aware of the energy security threat facing Eastern Europe, Alexey Belogoryev, deputy director of the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, said. According to him, Hungary does not really have an alternative to Russian oil supplies, while it will take at least six months to reshape logistics. "Russia offered good prices to Hungary and Slovakia, particularly because of relatively low transportation costs," the expert explained.

In the meanwhile, this is the perfect moment for Kiev "to punish" Hungary and Slovakia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s relations with the EU have been deteriorating since February 2022. After his recent peace mission to Moscow, Beijing and Washington, which had not been authorized by Brussels, relations reached a low point, Shein said. Furthermore, Brussels has condemned Hungary and threatened to punish the country, the expert added. "Ukraine has minimized the risks it is facing given the current situation in the EU. Moreover, this may now serve as a lever to put pressure on Orban to change his behavior towards both Brussels and Kiev, as Hungary has failed to build a constructive dialogue with Ukraine," Shein noted. Budapest and Bratislava will clearly have to find a compromise or figure out a way to exert pressure on Ukraine or EU bureaucrats, or on both parties at once, the expert concluded.

TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews