Russia, US conduct historic prisoner swap; forecasting Iran's reaction to Hamas leader's killing; and Zelensky speaks on Russia-Ukraine peace deal. These stories topped Friday's newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Russia, West hold historic prisoner exchange not seen since Cold War
Russia and the West traded convicts on August 1 in what was their largest prisoner exchange since the Cold War. It involved 26 prisoners from seven countries - Russia, Belarus, Slovenia, the United States, Germany, Poland and Norway. The transfer of prisoners took place in the Turkish capital, Ankara. Ten of those released went to Russia, where Russian President Vladimir Putin personally met them at the airport. In addition, according to media reports, 13 people went to Germany and three to the United States. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the exchange was a win for everyone involved, but it should not be expected to usher in an improvement in relations between Russia and the US or influence the conflict in Ukraine.
Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Dmitry Suslov emphasized the significance of this historic event. "Such an exchange of prisoners, truly unprecedented in its scale, took place because it is beneficial for both parties," he told Izvestia.
The landmark exchange is not a signal that the tides are turning in bilateral relations between the United States and Russia, nor will it have any impact on the Ukrainian issue, Principal Deputy Spokesperson for the US State Department Vedant Patel said at a briefing.
Such an exchange will not change anything fundamental in relations between the countries, leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies Konstantin Blokhin told Izvestia. According to him, the exchange is important as it shows that there are still some channels of communicationleft between Russia and the United States, even if they are meager, the expert noted. With the prisoner trade, the parties showed that they can indeed cooperate, but this is an exception in relations, as in all other areas things are very confrontational, he added.
Dmitry Novikov, Associate Professor and Head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Contemporary Geopolitics at the Higher School of Economics, believes that the exchange could have a positive impact on the dialogue between the two countries. "I think that this exchange will not fundamentally affect Russian-US relations, because they are still focused on much bigger problems. Nevertheless, this is a rather positive aspect that should be taken into account in the context of talks on finding a peaceful solution to the situation in Ukraine," he told Izvestia.
Some experts suggest that the exchange can be linked to the upcoming presidential election in the US, as the Democrats are looking for any opportunity to win over voters, and Kamala Harris, of course, can use all the support she can get at this point.
Izvestia: Prognosing Iran’s reaction to assassination of Hamas leader in Tehran
Following the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran reserves the right to retaliate against Israel should it deem such action necessary and appropriate. According to media reports, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has already given the order for a direct strike on enemy territory. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the country has some "challenging days" ahead of it and that Israel is ready for any scenario, Izvestia writes.
The New York Times has reported, citing sources, that Ayatollah Khamenei has already given the order to launch a direct attack on Israel. However, it is still unknown when this strike will take place. Iran's permanent representative to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani said that Tehran has the right to self-defense in this situation. What’s more, the diplomat stressed that Israel would never have decided to take such an action without Washington's support and approval.
In turn, the United States called on the parties to exercise restraint. According to CNN, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivered a message to Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement asking them to refrain from retaliatory actions after the assassination of Haniyeh.
However, it is obvious that there will be a response from Tehran, otherwise it will take a hit to its international image, given that the attack took place on Iranian soil, General Director of the Modern Iran Study Center Rajab Safarov told Izvestia. "This is a very serious blow to the country's prestige and image," he said.
However, according to political scientist Roland Bijamov, Iran and its allies understand the balance of power and don't want to be the ones to start a large-scale, so Tehran will try to respond in kind to the attack on July 31 and continue to "wear down" Israel and its allies in Syria, Iraq, from Lebanon and in the Strait of Hormuz.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Zelensky hopes to start peace talks on his own terms
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said in a recent interview that Kiev would not object to Russia's presence at the negotiating table if that is what the international community wants. He even left the door open for Ukraine making territorial concessions if the Ukrainian people agree to it. At the same time, he stated that China could force Moscow to stop the hostilities by joining the pressure of Western countries. Understanding that Ukraine is incapable of sustaining a long-term military conflict with Russia, Kiev wants to launch the negotiation process - on terms that the West and Ukraine can get behind, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
"I believe, like most countries, that Russian representatives should be present at the second peace summit in November, otherwise we will not achieve any real results," Zelensky said. He added that by this time Kiev intends to prepare its own plan for resolving the conflict, based on the "peace formula" presented by Zelensky in November 2022, which, among other things, stipulates the withdrawal of Russian troops from the regions that have already become part of Russia (including Donbass and Crimea) and returning to Ukraine’s 1991 borders. At the same time, answering a question about the firmness of these demands, Zelensky clarified himself, saying that even though the official authorities can not in good conscience give up their territories, if it is the will of the Ukrainian people, then this could happen.
Meanwhile, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian president's office Mikhail Podolyak reiterated that the proposed negotiations will be fruitful only if certain levers of pressure are applied on Russia. These include Western allies providing Ukraine with a greater number and more advanced weapons, and also, and possibly most importantly, allowing strikes on targets deep inside Russian territory.
Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Dmitry Suslov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that with such statements, Kiev representatives are obviously trying to strengthen their position. "Moreover, they cannot immediately abandon their own previous statements about the need to restore the 1991 borders, because for the past two years they have been convincing their population that victory is inevitable and that Ukraine will definitely return to these borders," Suslov explained.
At the same time, he continued, the Ukrainian leader understands that Kiev is not in a position to wage a military conflict with Russia indefinitely. That is why Zelensky is interested in starting some kind of peace process.
Vedomosti: Trump seeks to bring minority voters over to his camp
Former US President and Republican nominee in this year’s election Donald Trump appealed to representatives of racial and ethnic minorities on July 31. According to a July study by the Pew Research Center, Trump's support among African Americans stands at 13%, among Hispanic voters - 36%. The survey was conducted before the withdrawal of the current US President Joe Biden from the election, who was ahead of Trump in popularity among blacks, but did not have a stranglehold on this electorate. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, winning the minority vote will be key to victory in a number of states.
Harris will find it easier to attract black votes than Biden because of her background - she can create a wave of enthusiasm among this group of voters, just as former US President Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012, Head of the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS Victoria Zhuravleva told the newspaper. Trump's task of attracting black votes has only become more difficult because of Harris, the expert added.
According to the Pew Research Center, African Americans will make up 14% of the electorate in the upcoming election, and Hispanics will make up 15%. Both groups of voters are important in swing states, where the chances of a Democrat and a Republican winning are roughly equal. Such states usually determine the future president - in particular, Georgia and the Rust Belt states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), which together provide 60 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
Trump has no chance of significantly increasing his popularity among African Americans, so resources will be directed at maintaining current numbers and increasing his popularity among the latino community, says senior researcher at the Institute of the US and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Kochegurov. "While Hispanics may be ideologically aligned with him, African Americans may be impressed by his economic policies," the expert said. But even maintaining current support among African Americans will not be easy, especially against the backdrop of Trump's attacks on Harris about her heritage, Zhuravleva concludes.
Kommersant: Planned repairs reduce Russia’s July LNG exports
Russian LNG exports in July fell by 5.8% year-on-year to 1.97 mln tons, mainly due to planned repairs at Gazprom's Sakhalin-2 and Port LNG projects, according to Kommersant. In the past seven months, shipments increased by 2% to 18.83 mln tons. In July, Russian commodities saw increased flow to the EU, but only because the US chose to send most of its cargoes to Asia due to higher demand.
There are four export facilities in Russia - Novatek’s Yamal LNG with a design capacity of 16.5 mln tons per year, Gazprom's Sakhalin-2 with a capacity of 9.6 mln tons, which is entirely dedicated to the Asian market, as well as Novatek’s mid-scale Cryogas-Vysotsk projects with a capacity of 660,000 tons, and Gazprom's Port LNG with a capacity of 1.5 mln tons per year.
Yamal LNG's July shipments remained at the same level as last year at 1.53 mln tons, while over the first seven months of this year, the LNG plant increased exports by 6% to 12.28 mln tons.
According to independent expert Alexander Sobko, the year-on-year production growth at Yamal LNG is due to the fact that the plant was scheduled for maintenance in 2023, but in 2024 there is no such need.
In July, Cryogas-Vysotsk's exports fell to 68,000 tons, which is 13% less than last year, but so far this year the figure grew by 13.4% year-on-year to 457,000 tons. In July, the site continued to supply LNG to Finland and Sweden, which will no longer accept cargoes from Russia due to sanctions, but has already begun to replace these lost volumes with shipments to Spain.
In July, Portovaya LNG reduced exports by 9% year-on-year to 67,000 tons. In January-July, LNG exports from the project increased by 5.5% to 860,000 tons. Gazprom told Kommersant that the Portovaya LNG production, storage and shipping complex underwent scheduled maintenance in July. "The complex is currently operating normally," the company said.
Meanwhile, LNG imports from the United States to EU countries in July reached their lowest point since December 2021, a mere 2.22 mln tons. The US reached peak deliveries in November 2023 - 4.65 mln tons. Overall, EU countries imported 6.1 mln tons in July, down 26% year-over-year. At the same time, the US shifted supplies to the higher-margin Asian market in July, where heat waves have boosted LNG demand.
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