Why is Zelensky changing his tune on peace talks with Russia, and what does it have to do with the US election; Kamala Harris taps Minnesota governor Tim Walz as VP; and Putin gets invited to Mexican president’s inauguration. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Zelensky ups rhetoric about possible peace with Russia
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has said that he intends to prepare a "real base" for the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict by the end of the year. While the politician is outwardly trying to show the world how ready he is for dialogue, his true intentions here are much different, as in reality "saving his own skin" is his one and only goal, former Verkhovna Rada deputy Vladimir Oleynik told Izvestia. In many ways, this diplomatic balancing act is related to the unpredictable course of the US election campaign, the newspaper writes.
Zelensky’s plans to invite Russia to a second "peace summit" support the narrative that Ukraine is seeking a settlement. However, the actions of the Ukrainian military are a much clearer indication of official Kiev’s "real" desire for peace - on August 6, they attempted to break through to the territory of Russia’s Kursk region.
"Zelensky’s goal is not saving Ukraine and Ukrainians. The goal is to save his own skin - he is only concerned about his future and the future of his family, he doesn’t care about what happens to Ukraine," Vladimir Oleynik told Izvestia.
Political scientist and member of the Other Ukraine movement Alexander Dudchak also questions the sincerity of this peace rhetoric, he told Izvestia. "Ukraine’s position is no different than it has been for the past two years," he stressed.
Despite all the peace initiatives from Kiev and the West, peace talks remain out of the question as long as Ukraine has a decree in place prohibiting negotiations with Russia. Vladimir Oleynik noted that since Russia considers Zelensky an illegitimate president, the possible lifting of the decree should be signed by the legitimate leadership. Alexander Dudchak generally agrees but also believes that Zelensky could himself sign a document canceling the decree prohibiting negotiations with Russia, assuming Washington allows this.
Vedomosti: Kamala Harris chooses Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to be her running mate
US Vice President and official Democratic Party presidential candidate Kamala Harris has announced that if she wins in November, 60-year-old Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will be her Vice President. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti view Walz as a safe pick for Harris, a man with a seemingly squeaky clean record who won’t rock the boat.
Like most American governors, Walz has rarely spoken out on foreign policy issues and generally doesn’t stray too far from party lines. According to a joint poll by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, Walz is unknown to voters around the country, lacking name recognition. This is in stark contrast to apparent rival Josh Shapiro, the governor of swing state Pennsylvania, which, it should be noted, has the largest number of electoral votes. But Harris dropped Shapiro, presumably because of the harsh criticism he has been subject to from the left for his pro-Israel stance. The scandal surrounding Shapiro could hurt Democrats in the swing state of Michigan (16 electoral votes), home to many Muslim voters who oppose US and Israeli policies in the Middle East.
Walz, on the other hand, while being a general unknown to most people in the US, is well-respected inside his own party and is a fundraising dynamo, Director of the MGIMO Institute of International Studies Maxim Suchkov said. That said, his candidacy is vulnerable due to his relative anonymity and lack of popularity in his home state. "In what time remains, they need to promote not only Harris, but him as well," the expert said.
The choice of Walz is a strategically strong move, Head of Dubravsky Consulting Pavel Dubravsky told the newspaper. He, like Harris herself in 2020, has become a consensus figure within the Democratic Party. "Walz looks like a ‘normal candidate.’ His initiatives on free school lunches, background as a teacher and his public speaking style may appeal to white Americans who largely support Trump," the expert explained.
Harris chose Walz to win over the white male electorate aged 60 and older, Head of the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS Victoria Zhuravleva said. "After Biden’s withdrawal, Harris was able to increase support among almost all groups of Democratic voters, except for older white men, and choosing Walz may finally bring them over to her side," the expert said.
Izvestia: Putin invited to inauguration of Mexican president on October 1
Mexico has invited Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the inauguration of new President Claudia Sheinbaum on October 1, 2024, the Russian and Mexican embassies confirmed to Izvestia. The Latin American country has taken a neutral position on the Ukrainian crisis, and experts believe that this will not change with the shift of power. Sheinbaum will most likely mirror the foreign policy of her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Izvestia writes.
"The Russian side has received an invitation to the inauguration ceremony of the president of Mexico," the Russian embassy in Mexico country told Izvestia.
Mexico’s decision to send an invitation to the inauguration ceremony to the Russian president speaks to the continued policy of distant neutrality regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, professor at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University Viktor Kheifets believes.
"Mexico does not agree with Russia’s position on Ukraine, but at the same time it emphasizes that it does not intend to follow in the footsteps of some countries, who are trying to isolate Russia, instead intending to maintain smooth business relations where it benefits either both countries or Mexico," the expert told Izvestia.
The country’s foreign policy is unlikely to change when Sheinbaum comes to power; she will follow the same line as Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Viktor Kheifets believes.
At the same time, Russia and Mexico have maintained diplomatic and trade relations. For example, in the first four months of 2024, trade turnover between the two countries increased by 9.8% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching $759.99 mln.
"Mexico has always been a neutral country. Its foreign policy doctrine asserts the need not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries," senior researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Tatyana Rusakova told the newspaper.
Vedomosti: Shoigu goes to Iran, Azerbaijan amid potential Iranian-Israeli escalation
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu in Baku on August 6. During the talks, the parties discussed the implementation of bilateral agreements and roadmaps in the security, transport, energy, military-technical and humanitarian spheres, the press service of the Azerbaijani presidential administration reported. Shoigu also visited Tehran the day before, which means it’s likely that the parties discussed the potential escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, Vedomosti writes.
Shoigu and Aliyev also probably talked about Russian companies helping restore territories in Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas, as well as the promotion of joint transportation projects, expert on military security in the South Caucasus Niyazi Niyazov said. In addition, Russia and Azerbaijan have been making great efforts to launch the North-South transport corridor for several years, but the process was slowed down by the Iranian side. "Now the international landscape has changed, and Tehran is interested in launching it. Baku and Moscow can help the Iranian side in the construction of the viaducts, as they will open a new geo-economic route that promises economic benefits for all participants," the expert noted.
Another possible topic of discussion, according to Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, may have been the situation in the Middle East against the backdrop of the threat of escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. Even more so because Shoigu visited Tehran the day before.
According to Sazhin, the assassination of Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh has dealt a serious blow to Iran’s reputation and image, forcing Tehran to respond to Israel in some way. The expert believes Iran could simultaneously use its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq for a response. Finally, Tehran could attack the Jewish state together with its allies. "However, this scenario is unlikely, as it risks a serious regional war, one that would involve the United States," the expert concluded.
Kommersant: Russia resumes coal shipments to Asia via Arctic route after three-year hiatus
Russian coal exporters have resumed shipments to the Asia-Pacific region from Baltic ports via the Northern Sea Route after a three-year hiatus, according to a report from the Argus pricing agency for the month of July. This information was confirmed by data from the analytical company Kpler. With the start of summer shipping in the Arctic Ocean, the route avoids the risky waters of the Red Sea - still subject to Houthi attacks - and the costly detour around the Cape of Good Hope. However, analysts told Kommersant they doubt that the Northern Sea Route will become a permanent route for coal exports, pointing to the greater potential of southern ports.
According to Argus, on July 13, the Admiral Schmidt, a Babycape-class vessel with a deadweight of 106,000 tons, left Ust-Luga for Caofeidian, China. The dry cargo ship is currently sailing in the Barents Sea and, as Argus writes, may require icebreaker assistance in the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route. Freight costs along the route are estimated at $45-48 per ton. The owner of the cargo was not disclosed.
Market participants point to increased risks on the Red Sea route. According to the Argus report, attacks on ships carrying Russian coal have become more frequent in the area. Argus noted that after the Houthi attacks began last fall, several Russian coal cargo ships were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. But the route has proven more expensive, especially as coal prices have fallen, the agency said.
Head of Consulting at Neft Research Alexander Kotov believes that the profitability of deliveries via the Northern Sea Route to China "is in doubt." According to him, southern ports may be more promising than the Northern Sea Route - they operate year-round, have access to railroads and other infrastructure with cheaper maintenance.
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