Putin and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas discuss the Middle East crisis in Moscow; hiring foreign pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine may further escalate the conflict; and Trump says he can win Putin over if re-elected US president. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Media: Putin, Palestinian president discuss Middle East issue in Moscow talks
Moscow is following the humanitarian crisis in Palestine with a heavy heart, as the Gaza war has claimed more than 40,000 civilian lives already, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during talks with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. The region can only enjoy peace when all UN resolutions are implemented and a Palestinian state is created, Putin stressed. Abbas, meanwhile, blamed Washington for preventing the UN from making any headway on the issue, Izvestia writes.
"Palestine sees Russia as its long-standing ally. And trust in Russian diplomacy is firmly established in the region," Middle East expert Artyom Tkachev said. According to him, Russia has already proved its efficiency in resolving major foreign policy issues in the Middle East, with the 2011 Syrian crisis being a perfect example of that. In fact, Moscow has a long history of participating in efforts to settle Middle East affairs.
"Russia has some strategic advantages. Moscow seeks to maintain normal, constructive relations with both Israel and the Palestinian National Authority. It also has a dialogue with movements such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Hypothetically, this could help Russia strengthen its role as a mediator in the negotiating process," Ivan Bocharov, program coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out.
Today, it’s impossible to resolve the crisis without mediators but very few non-regional actors fit the bill because the conflicting parties don’t have common allies, experts note. Bocharov added that the Palestinians don’t trust the US, particularly given the "Deal of the Century" that ex-President Donald Trump tried to implement.
What Abbas and his team want to do is expand their support base on the international stage in order to put pressure on Israel, Andrey Zeltyn, senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics’ School of Asian Studies, told Vedomosti. "The government of [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu is a prickly partner in talks for the Palestinians. The Palestinian authority would like to put pressure on the Israelis through Moscow, especially since Washington has no intention of doing that," the expert added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ukraine considers idea of enlisting foreign pilots to fly F-16's against Russia
Russia continues to build up reserves to repel the Ukrainian army's incursion into the borderline Kursk Region, the sole area where Kiev’s forces are on the offensive. Slowly but surely, Russian troops are gradually taking control of the situation. Meanwhile, the US is discussing the possibility of enlisting mercenary pilots to fly F-16's against Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
The Ukrainian armed forces are paying a high price for trying to move deeper into Russia. According to Apty Alaudinov, deputy chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ Main Military-Political Department and commander of the Akhmat special forces commando unit, the Ukrainian army lost up to 45 pieces of equipment - the weapons of a battalion tactical group - in just one sector of the Kursk area in the past two days.
However, Kiev and the West continue to endorse Ukraine's military operations within Russia's borders. US Senators Lindsey Graham (designated in Russia as a terrorist and extremist) and Richard Blumenthal officially came out in support of continuing the incursion during their recent visit to Kiev. Western media outlets report that at a meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, the two senators enthusiastically welcomed the Ukrainian army's operation in the Kursk Region. The parties also openly discussed the option of hiring foreign pilots to fly the F-16 fighter jets that are being handed over to the Ukrainian armed forces to be used in the conflict.
"Only about two dozen Ukrainian pilots have been trained on the F-16s," Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert, pointed out. "That’s not enough. And this is one of the reasons why the jets haven’t been sent to fight yet. Preparing an F-16 jet for fighting is a very complicated and long-term process because it requires pilots working in shifts and technicians to support them. This puts Kiev in a tough spot, so their only remaining option is to look for mercenaries who have combat experience in using the F-16s and are willing to fight for the Ukrainian armed forces," he added.
The expert suggests that this is a slippery slope. "Sending military professionals from NATO countries to fight flying US-made aircraft means an escalation and the internationalization of the conflict. In fact, this is a path that will lead to a war with NATO and the North Atlantic Alliance," Netkachev emphasized.
Media: Trump optimistic he can mend ties with Putin if re-elected
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump thinks he can win over Russian leader Vladimir Putin if re-elected, as he stated in an interview with billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, Vedomosti writes.
These kinds of campaign promises from Trump should be taken with a grain of salt, Grigory Yarygin, associate professor with the Department for American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, noted. The expert explains that with this rhetoric, Trump is trying to win over American voters, not make any serious claims about foreign policy. He wants to show his leadership chops.
Still, Yarygin went on to say, if Trump does win re-election, he will make a genuine effort to engage in talks with Russia. However, the expert specified that two factors would affect Trump’s approach. The first stems from his personal willingness to negotiate. Trump is not ready to change the general course of US foreign policy and will put pressure on Russia if he finds it necessary. Besides, Trump’s ability to implement policy will depend on the future US Congress. He imposed sanctions on Russia during his first term in office despite the Republican Party having a majority.
American historian and former Harvard University lecturer Vladimir Brovkin told Izvestia that US foreign policy is unlikely to change even if Trump returns to power. When Trump was president in 2017-21, the checks and balances system in the US kept him from achieving everything he wanted to. "The so-called deep state was in control of everything," Brovkin added.
Meanwhile, even if Washington’s foreign policy changes slightly, no one can guarantee that Russia will be amenable to this, Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics, stressed. "He [Trump] is notoriously stubborn. Vladimir Putin is also known as a tough negotiator who, by the way, no longer trusts anyone in the US or the West, for that matter. So where are we headed? In truth, the hope that things will go back to old times because ‘Trump will solve everything’ is extremely naive. On the contrary, we are much more likely to see the stakes raised even higher," the expert said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Israel worried about possible opening of Jordanian front
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) command plans to form a new division that will be deployed to the border with Jordan. Israel’s security agencies are worried that Iran and groups loyal to it will try to attack the Jewish state from the east, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Shiite armed units close to Iran have repeatedly tried to turn the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan not only into a launch pad for rockets but also into a transit hub for smuggling weapons to the neighboring West Bank. Israel believes that it is from the West Bank that the enemy may be preparing to carry out another ground incursion similar to the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023.
Not so long ago, the Jordanian leadership expressed concern to Iraq via diplomatic channels about the large number of militants stationed near the border. Amman believes that units acting in Iran’s interests will want to use Jordan’s territory for direct strikes on Israel. In addition, Amman has recently notified the US administration that it is no longer willing to take part in intercepting missiles and drones launched towards Israel. King Abdullah II of Jordan highlighted the need to make every effort to ease tensions in the region.
Russian International Affairs Council expert Anton Mardasov suggested that the IDF might be planning to strengthen the Central Command. "The most likely goal of the IDF command’s plans is not to rearrange the existing system but to reinforce the Central Command by building, manning and deploying a new division to the West Bank in order to cover the entire border between the West Bank and Jordan," Mardasov specified.
"The existing formations, whose units perform missions in the West Bank, have a lot to do, given large-scale smuggling activities, the overall attitude of the Palestinian population, Hamas’s efforts to close its ranks and the future of Gaza," the expert pointed out. "Another thing to remember is the high number of Palestinians residing in Jordan and the threats against Israel made by the local branches of the Muslim Brotherhood (the organization is designated as terrorist and outlawed in Russia - Nezavisimaya Gazeta)," he added. This is precisely why the transit of militants and weapons to the combat zone is well developed, the analyst concluded.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: No leverage left for US, EU to put pressure on Russian oil exports
The export earnings of Russian oil, gas and coal companies are on the decline for the fourth month in a row while government revenues rose by more than 50% in the first seven months of 2024 year-on-year, Finland’s Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said, citing data from Kpler, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
The experts attributed Russia’s rising budget revenues to an increase in the tax burden on hydrocarbon companies, as well as to the unwillingness of customers, traders and carriers to comply with the Russian crude oil price cap. The countries that don’t support the price cap - namely China, India and Turkey - have become the main buyers of Russian hydrocarbons. Among possible options to toughen sanctions are lowering the price cap, banning purchases of fuel made of Russian oil and restricting Russian vessels from entering EU ports and crossing European straits, CREA analysts said.
However, National Energy Security Fund Director Konstantin Simonov notes that the market will adapt to any new barriers put in place. Moreover, the US currently cannot afford to take measures that would create the risk of spiking oil prices. Combined with the tense situation in the Middle East, careless steps may send oil prices skyrocketing, and with the US holding its presidential election in November, the administration needs to keep gas prices from growing too much. As for the idea of banning Russian ships from entering EU ports, Simonov says that won’t work because oil and oil products can simply be transferred from one tanker to another at sea.
Speaking of the passing of ships carrying Russian oil through European straits, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman notes that supporters of the initiative emphasize the fact that these tankers don’t have Western insurance and are often in poor condition, increasing the risk of oil spills. However, if such a ban is introduced, it’s not clear how it would be implemented in practice. What's more, any use of military force in these waters would be viewed by the Russian authorities as a major escalation of tensions by NATO. So the straits are unlikely to be closed.
A ban on the import of oil products made of Russian oil in third countries is the only remaining option. But, according to Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov, this would only lead to a rise in oil product prices, primarily in EU countries.
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