August 14 saw Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announce unwillingness to run again for leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In the local political system, this implies an automatic resignation as PM. In September, after the new LDP chairman is elected, Japan will have a new prime minister. But all the old problems are here to stay.
Over the last few months, Kishida has been facing strong criticism from prepotent party members over the deplorable public opinion polls suggesting that popularity of the government and the prime minister himself has plummeted to a critical 20 percent level.
The low figure was naturally casting a shadow on the party as well, which lost three by-elections to the lower house of parliament and the Tokyo City Assembly. A truly alarming symptom. It was obviously dangerous to the Japanese conservatives to proceed with their political struggle, let alone to have a shot at early parliamentary elections to confirm the party’s clout and standing. The party decided to sacrifice its leader, which is rather in line with Japanese tradition.
At the same time, one cannot blame Kishida for making fatal mistakes during the three years of his premiership. Rather, he has become a scapegoat to account for the scandals the entire LDP was engaged in.
The strongest blow to the ruling party’s prestige was inquiry into assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The killer turned out to have been taking revenge (at least as claimed by the official version) for his family ruined by the so-called Unification Church, which should be more accurately called a destructive sect, one of Japan’s most affluent. In turn, the sect was associated with numerous LDP active members, rendering them various services during elections in exchange for political support. All of this has disrupted reputation of both the party and its leader.
The second powerful blow to the Conservatives came six months ago, when party leadership turned out to have been cheating with political funds. Some of the donations were not accounted for in party books, with no one publicly reporting for the funds or paying taxes. It was both defiance of the law and unfair political competition. And again, Kishida was the one to deal with the scandal.
All of this was overlaid with smaller scandals like the PM’s son's reproaches for tourism at government expense, or weird statements by the Minister of Justice about death penalty in Japan.
In general, Kishida seemed to be only engaged in reverting political crises big and small. But to an even greater extent, Cabinet popularity was affected by inflation and growing prices, which the Japanese grew out of during the deflation decade. And despite the Japanese government’s attempts to turn blame on Russia, claiming that it was all about rising energy prices caused by the Ukrainian crisis, voters still believed that Kishida's government was unable to cope with this key economic challenge.
On the other hand, the voters have never found the Prime Minister's foreign policy efforts convincing. Kishida's key task was to pursue the course towards strengthening the Japanese-American military alliance and, most importantly, to expand Tokyo's rights in this bilateral military cooperation. The official results have yet to be revealed, but general point is that Japan will be more or less involved in US military planning in case of a threat to its security, including the use of nuclear weapons.
A decision has been made to double the country's military budget, along with passing a package of doctrinal documents to indicate that the country has vigorously embarked upon the path of remilitarization. Military-technical cooperation with the United States and other NATO countries is booming. Ties within the Washington-Tokyo-Seoul triangle are being cemented. Also, Japan has been actively contributing to the development of Indo-Pacific entities — AUCUS and QUAD — aimed to deter China and Russia.
Voters seem sympathetic to the ruling elite’s efforts to fend off external threats such as China, Russia and the DPRK. However, polls show that very few people want to pay for military expenses through higher taxes, with the Japanese state having no extra money at its disposal. And Kishida's entire foreign policy has never proved able to enhance his Cabinet’s image.
Amid all of this, the prime minister decided to resign. "There is nothing more he can do," the influential Yomiuri newspaper quoted a senior government official as saying.
Next Tuesday, the LDP must decide on the date to elect the new party leader, who will automatically become the next PM. The lead candidates are already known.
The first one is party veteran Shigeru Ishiba, 67, who once already sought the post. Being a moderate dissident, he has pleased the public by criticizing the prime minister and his party. Ishiba is no less popular among local deputies who also engage in choosing the party leader, while LDP bosses comprising MPs are not overfond of him.
Isiba held the second most important post in the party, twice headed the military department, and tried his hand at other government positions. He ran for party leader five times, competed well with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, though all to no avail. Today, he is officially supported by former PM Yoshihide Suga. "It is a perfect moment for Isiba," the influential politician said.
His rival is former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 42. The handsome and eloquent politician has political roots traditional for Japan: his father is popular ex-PM Junichiro Koizumi.
Another highly valued politician is successor of another political dynasty Taro Kono, 61, who once headed the Foreign and Defense Ministries of this country. Today, he is in charge of digital transformation issues, while seemingly taking cue from the LDP behind-the-scenes heavyweight and party vice-president Taro Aso.
Kishida himself has avoided naming his successor. Asked if he would endorse any candidate, the Prime Minister said: "A person who has announced that he will not run should refrain from making statements about what is going to happen further on."
But public statements are one thing, and behind-the-scenes bargaining is another, when the most authoritative LDP figures are to pick up the new government leader. This is common practice.
