German prosecutors identify new suspects in Nord Stream probe, Putin puts peace proposal on ice amid Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Region; and Iran resumes work on nuclear bomb amid tensions with Israel. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Media: Germany's Nord Stream probe implicates Ukrainian divers, but something feels off
The German Federal Public Prosecutor issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor suspected of having played a role in sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines, Germany’s Tagesschau reported on August 14. According to ARD, the daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung and the weekly Die Zeit, the last known whereabouts of the suspect, identified as Vladimir Z., were in Poland. German prosecutors are also investigating two other Ukrainian diving instructors, who were identified by German intelligence back in spring, but no arrest warrant has been issued for them yet.
Izvestia has turned to Germany’s justice and interior ministries for comment. The German Interior Ministry refused to issue a statement as it forwarded the request to federal prosecutors, who subsequently also declined to comment. Nor has the country’s embassy in Moscow provided any information.
The situation around the new Ukrainian suspect indicates Germany’s reluctance to change tack, which would have caused a major shift in its foreign policy course. According to Maria Khorolskaya, research fellow at the Department for European Political Studies of Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), Berlin is looking to shift the focus onto judiciaries to show its probe is independent. Furthermore, if third countries are found to have been involved in the attack, Germany would be put in an uncomfortable position, having to take action against them. "I don’t rule out that Germany has decided to come to the rescue of its senior partners in Washington, while the version adopted by the media and German prosecutors that Ukraine, Poland or even some individuals might have played a role is just an information operation aimed at covering up the real perpetrators of this terrorist attack," Khorolskaya told Izvestia.
Editor in chief of the Arsenal Otechestva (or Arsenal of the Fatherland) magazine Alexey Leonkov agrees. He noted to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that well-trained and well-equipped US or British special services were the only ones who could have carried out the deep-sea explosions that rocked such a well-protected gas pipeline. The expert doubts that the alleged Ukrainian saboteurs played a key role in developing and implementing said operation. According to him, the timing of the latest reports on the issue is perhaps meant to show that Germany is seeking to demonstrate that the probe is almost over and that it can close or even classify the investigation later, as long as the culprits have been identified, albeit not caught.
Vedomosti: Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Region cancels Putin’s peace initiative
Late on August 13, Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky said at an informal meeting of the UN Security Council that the peace proposal Russia had made earlier was "too generous" for Ukraine, given its desperate situation on the frontline. The Russian envoy warned at the UN that Ukraine would have "bitter regrets" about its assault on the Kursk Region. Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said on August 14 that Kiev had put the issue of peace talks with Moscow on long-term hold by attacking the borderline Russian region.
At a meeting that discussed the current state of affairs on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the idea of holding talks with an enemy who he said was indiscriminately shelling civilians.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who the Kremlin says has no legitimate authority given his five-year term has already expired, chose to escalate the conflict to derail any chance at holding talks to end hostilities, Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine Department at the Institute of CIS Studies, told Vedomosti. He argues that the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Region had been precoordinated with the West to get the ball rolling on new negotiations where Moscow would have to make major concessions. "The reaction of the Western elites was noteworthy as not only did they not condemn Kiev’s actions but actually supported them instead," he maintains.
At present, conditions for reviving peace talks are worse than they were before the Ukrainian cross-border incursion, Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out. Russia is tweaking its foreign policy on the Ukrainian track as Moscow refuses to negotiate under pressure. Nor would Russian troops’ pushing the Ukrainians back to the state border in the Kursk area mark a turning point in efforts to resume dialogue, the expert added. "A lot will depend on the Russian Army’s advance toward Ukraine along the line of engagement. No diplomatic breakthrough can be expected in the coming months, I am afraid," he concluded.
The Islamic Republic is getting closer to developing its own nuclear bomb, several independent sources in Iran told Iran International. According to the UK-based television channel, Tehran is intensifying efforts to complete its nuclear weapons production cycle, including high-level uranium enrichment, the development of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and, most importantly, the production of nuclear detonation devices. The Islamic Republic already tested such devices back in 2012, when progress in its research nearly pushed Iran and Israel to the edge of a full-blown war.
It’s worth noting that the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus in April brought the idea of changing the parameters of nuclear containment back to the forefront in the Islamic Republic, and the recent assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh at his residence in Tehran only intensified such rhetoric among the Iranian elite.
"Over the past few years, since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and Iran’s refusal to comply with numerous terms of the agreement in response, work on the Iranian nuclear program has been accelerated," senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Yuri Lyamin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to him, among other things, Tehran has intensified its production capacities to enrich uranium manifold to accumulate enough potential in terms of research and production to streamline building nuclear weapons. But a political decision is needed for that, he explained.
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Grigory Lukyanov, researcher with the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, noted that the developments in the Middle East indirectly encourage Iran to fast-track its nuclear and missile programs. "Given the unconditional support the US and its regional allies are declaring to Israel, including in security, and the feeding of the Israeli army with more weapons, intelligence and ammunition, the situation requires that Iran not reject any instrument at its disposal," Lukyanov said. "As global instability grows, new opportunities and new resources emerge for Tehran," he added.
Izvestia: Turkey looks to play greater role in resolving Gaza crisis
Alongside Russia, Turkey continues to work toward finding a diplomatic way out of the conflict in the Gaza Strip. On Tuesday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas held talks in Moscow with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. On Wednesday evening, the president of the Palestinian National Authority arrived in Turkey to meet with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Their talks were held behind closed doors, but the assumption is that they discussed ways of resolving the Gaza conflict. A few hours prior to the meeting, Erdogan said that Ankara would prevent the Jewish state from setting the Middle East on fire. Still, the region is currently on the verge of a major escalation, as Israel waits for Iranian retaliation to the assassination of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. By the way, later on Thursday, Abbas will deliver a speech at the Turkish parliament as legislators will convene an extraordinary session for that purpose.
Since the war broke out in October 2023, Turkey, unlike its key NATO allies, such as the United States and Germany, has maintained a pro-Palestinian position. Since last fall, it has sent more than 40,000 metric tons of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian enclave. In the international arena, Ankara has been pushing to prosecute the Netanyahu government for its actions in Gaza, and in late July, Erdogan even threatened to invade Israel, "just like we entered Karabakh and Libya."
Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, Director of the Public Institute for Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region named after V.B. Artsruni, doubts Turkey can play the role of a mediator in the conflict in the Gaza Strip as it will fail to find any support in Israel. "True, Turkey is seeking to strengthen its role in resolving the conflict, but its demands have been limited to calling on Israel to end the Gaza occupation and pull its troops out, something Israel is reluctant to do," the expert told Izvestia.
Turkish political scientist Kerim Has agrees that Ankara cannot be an effective mediator but for a different reason. "I doubt Turkey can play a major role. While the Turkish leadership maintains communication with various Palestinian groups, contacts have been scarce," the expert said. According to him, Iran and Qatar have more influence on Hamas than Turkey does. Besides, Erdogan has no levers of pressure against Israel, he added. "In 2005, Turkey acted as a mediator between Israel and Syria, but that was almost two decades ago, and the current situation is quite different," he concluded.
Izvestia: Corporate profits rebound in Russia
Profits of Russian enterprises have returned to growth: in January-May, they increased by 13% to 13 trln rubles ($144 bln), Izvestia has learned. In the first five months of 2023, corporate profits fell by more than 20%. This year’s growth has been driven by the construction, oil production and car-making industries.
Experts say the financial results of companies have improved as they adapt to sanctions restrictions and amid a construction frenzy ahead of the abolition of preferential mortgages as well as thanks to import substitution and higher domestic demand as wages grow.
Flamboyant domestic consumption will drive company financials higher, Alexey Khizhnyak at Business Russia believes. Growing exports to the SCO, BRICS and Latin America will also help prop up the profit growth, especially if commodity prices stay high. Denis Paleyev at RUDN University expects corporate profits to see more growth in the next few years.
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