Switzerland wants to mediate the Moscow-Kiev conflict, international actors converge to help facilitate talks on a Gaza ceasefire, and Russia develops a safe vaccine against mpox. These stories topped Friday's newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Bern wants to mediate Russian-Ukrainian conflict
Switzerland is offering its services in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Swiss Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Lea Zurcher told Izvestia. According to her, Bern is of the mindset that any further steps with regard to talks and peace must include both sides. Switzerland supports the holding of a second "peace summit" on Ukraine, expecting that Russia will take part. However, Moscow does not view Bern as a neutral party and sees participation in the summit as a way to present Russia with yet another ultimatum. Experts note that neither Russia, nor the West place much significance on such conferences. Additionally, the Ukrainian attack on Russia’s borderline Kursk Region has seriously postponed any prospects for a peaceful settlement.
"’Peace summits’ on Ukraine will continue to be promoted; they aren’t going anywhere. Various peace proposals will continue to be voiced as well, so that the sides putting them forward can be viewed in the eyes of the public as promoting peace," Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council on Interethnic Relations, told Izvestia. "Nobody places much significance on these summits either in Russia, or in the West. This is merely public maneuvering, nothing else. All major agreements are reached behind the scenes," he added.
German political scientist Alexander Rahr told Izvestia that the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk Region has pushed back any possibility of peace talks. According to him, Russia will never agree to any negotiations while enemy troops are on its soil. He noted that, unfortunately, the situation is getting worse, but not through the fault of Ukraine or Russia. It is Western countries who benefit, and not just the US and Germany. The collective West seems perfectly content to continue carrying out this proxy war against Russia. The expert thinks that the West views the weakening of Russia and its slow advance in Donbass as the strengthening of the West’s position through Ukraine.
Vedomosti: Regional, international players juggle for influence in Gaza conflict resolution
The Palestinian Hamas movement is trying to get Russia, Turkey and the UN involved as additional intermediaries in talks on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip with Israel. However, the Israeli side has consented only to mediation by the US, Qatar and Egypt, Osama Hamdan, a high-ranking Hamas representative told the Associated Press in an interview on the eve of a new round of talks with Israel in Doha. "We have informed the mediators that <…> any meeting should be based on talking about implementation mechanisms and setting deadlines rather than negotiating something new," he noted.
Essentially, Russia lacks sufficient leverage over the opposing sides in order to serve as an intermediary, Ivan Bocharov, program coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), said. "As opposed to the US, which deployed a substantial military contingent in the region, other non-regional forces cannot yet impact the situation. However, Moscow’s interaction with Hezbollah’s political wing as well as Hamas may be an important advantage for Russia," the expert explained.
Hamas is ready and willing to sign an agreement with Israel, said Andrey Zeltyn, senior lecturer at the School of Asian Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is firmly against any agreement at this point. "Until Netanyahu adjusts [his position], I do not see any prospects for settling the conflict peacefully," the expert noted.
If talks between Hamas and Israel resume, they are most likely to be held without any preconditions, Bocharov pointed out. That said, he noted that after a change in leadership, the Hamas political bureau will most likely refrain from participating in dialogue. What’s more, in his opinion, the Iranian factor does not significantly impact the Israeli leadership’s attitude toward Hamas. The expert thinks that Israel is not worried about Iran’s full-scale involvement in the conflict on the side of Hamas because it is confident that the US always has its back.
Izvestia: Russian scientists pioneer safe vaccine against rising mpox threat
Scientists from Russia’s Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology have completed developing a novel safe vaccine against mpox, previously known as monkeypox, the center’s director, Alexander Gintsburg, told Izvestia. The compound has been genetically engineered so that there are less side effects compared to its analogues containing a live virus. Before the vaccine can be rolled out to the world, specialists will need to carry out about a year’s worth of pre-clinical and clinical trials. An effective instrument against mpox may be needed very soon.
Due to a rapid rise in infections, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the mpox epidemic in Africa an emergency situation. Experts think that border control will protect Russia from the massive spread of the disease. However, in the long-term perspective, the infection will inevitably find its way into the country.
"Our vaccine is genetically engineered. Existing vaccines are either ‘live’ or ‘semi-live,’ so once inside the human body, they may begin to propagate which leads to a multitude of side effects. A safe vaccine requires a protective antigen, much like with COVID-19, also cloned in a vector. Basically, we have already done this. We have discovered and described several proteins against which a stable immunity emerges. They have all been cloned, their composition finalized, and the effectiveness of such an approach was demonstrated in animal trials. The only thing left is to conduct pre-clinical and clinical trials," Gintsburg said.
Vedomosti: Russian ports see uptick in tanker rates due to oil transit challenges
Freight charges for Aframax oil tankers (with a deadweight of 80,000-120,000 tons) in Russian ports have begun to climb after a three-month decline, according to a survey by the Price Index Center made available to Vedomosti.
Mikhail Zhuravlev of the Institute for Energy and Finance thinks that the August spike was triggered by the situation with Russian oil transit via Ukraine. According to Vadim Pugach of Gazprombank, freight charges can be expected to rise substantially in the fall. This is likely to be accompanied by an increase in discounts on Russian oil as well. Zhuravlev concurs that the cargo rates will grow significantly in the second part of September.
Sergey Suverov, an investment strategist at Arikapital, reiterated that the reduction of oil exports from Russia triggered minimal freight rates in July. He expects that the planned increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries will boost demand for tanker transportation in October leading to higher freight rates. However, in his opinion, the production growth in Russia will mainly take place at the end of the year due to the need to offset volumes produced above the quota in the first half of 2024.
Kommersant: Russian coal exports on the rise
Hot weather and a temporary lifting of export duties have impacted deliveries of Russian coal to external markets. According to Platts, in May-July, Russia exported 37.3 mln tons of coal, a 27% rise compared to the previous three months, due to demand in Asia and the Mediterranean. However, year on year, port coal transshipments are still below last year’s levels. Experts link the upsurge in exports with lower prices compared to the competition and are not yet ready to talk about a return to previous volumes.
Market conditions for Russian power-generating coal are indeed getting better, says Alexander Kotov, head of consulting at Neft Research. According to his data, the netback has been growing since mid-July due to recovered prices in the Baltic and Taman regions.
Chief strategist at Vector X brokerage Maxim Khudalov noted that the growth of coal demand in China is slowing down, therefore, increased exports from Russia over recent months can be explained by its competitive advantage in price. The analyst concurs that the temporary lifting of export duties may have stimulated the supplies but sees growing natural gas prices in Europe as the main reason. Due to military actions in the Kursk Region where the Sudzha gas pumping station is located, ensuring the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine to Europe, EU gas stock quotes are trading at their highest prices since December 2023. However, Khudalov cautioned that it is too early to speak about growing coal exports from Russia, especially since export duties are due to return on August 31.
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