Telegram CEO Durov's arrest could change messaging app forever; US main supplier of chemical weapons to Ukraine; and Israel's airstrike on southern Lebanon latest episode in escalating conflict. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines across Russia.

Vedomosti: Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s arrest sparks concerns over messaging app’s future

On the evening of August 24, Telegram founder Pavel Durov was detained at France’s Le Bourget airport after arriving there from Azerbaijan on a private jet. According to French media, the arrest was related to the messenger’s lack of moderation, its refusal to cooperate with law enforcement agencies, and the tools provided by the application. LCI TV channel noted that this allegedly makes Durov an accomplice to drug trafficking, crimes against children, and fraud. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, the arrest will no doubt have an impact on the messenger’s future.

Telegram once again became the focus of European authorities this spring. In May, EU authorities began discussing with Telegram the messenger’s user base in Europe, Bloomberg reported. At the same time, European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency Vera Jourova accused Moscow of using the platform to spread "misinformation" among Russian-speaking residents, arguing that the Baltic states, Poland, and Bulgaria were among the most vulnerable.

According to the platform’s official data, Telegram had 41 mln users as of February 2024, but regulators believe the actual number of users is higher, Bloomberg noted. Services with 45 mln or more users are considered very large online platforms under European law, and must comply with stricter rules under the EU’s Digital Service Act (DSA).

Formally, Durov was arrested for refusing to cooperate with the French authorities, who accuse Telegram of allowing criminals to operate on the platform under the guise of anonymity, founder of the law firm Future Legal Pavel Katkov told Vedomosti. There may be more to Durov’s arrest than is being disclosed, but the formal charges against him are legitimate, managing partner of the Westside law firm Sergey Vodolagin, noted. "On the one hand, this includes Telegram’s independence from government authorities, and on the other, an insufficient level of internal self-regulation. This does not mean that there were no other reasons for the arrest, known only to the state security structures."

Kirill Kondratenko, Deputy Director General of Pravotekh, told the newspaper that he sees a few likely scenarios potentially playing out. "The first is that Telegram promptly resolves the violations that Paris [may] point out. In this case, we can expect Durov’s quick release. The second option is that Durov will take a principled stand. In this case, we may see a series of high-profile accusations of violations from both France and the United States, followed by arrest and extradition," the expert suggested.

"Today, Durov is a figure on the scale of Zuckerberg and Brin. The ability to influence such a person is a huge power," Katkov stressed.

Kondratenko believes that regardless of the outcome of the investigation, Telegram will continue to exist as one of the most high-tech and convenient messengers around. Vodolagin warns that Durov’s arrest could negatively impact Telegram’s operations, ranging from a complete ban to Telegram "voluntarily" agreeing to cooperate with the government to combat crime.

Izvestia: US main supplier of chemical weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces

The United States supplies Ukraine with a wide range of chemical weapons, some of which are actively used by the Ukrainian armed forces, the Russian Permanent Mission to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) told Izvestia. According to Russian diplomats, the US remains the main supplier of toxic substances to Ukraine. They say that despite the White House’s claims about destroying stockpiles of such munitions, the US still has production facilities for synthesizing large quantities of toxic substances.

With the support of the West, Ukraine is making extra efforts to "continue military operations and maintain the illusion of parity" in the fight against Russia, the Russian Permanent Mission to the OPCW told the newspaper. "The United States remains the main supplier of toxic substances to Ukraine," the mission noted.

The mission added that over 400 cases of Ukraine using non-lethal toxic chemicals had been recorded in the zone of the special military operation. There were also cases of chemical weapons components being used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to poison food, which resulted in the death of 15 people.

Specialist in radiation, chemical and biological protection Oleg Zheltonozhko told Izvestia that it is difficult to accuse any country of using chemical weapons, since it is necessary to conduct fairly lengthy and complex analyses of samples taken at a specific location and then get unambiguous results. "There are types of weapons that are not chemical weapons, but can perform almost the same functions. These are incendiary and smoke weapons," the expert clarified.

At the same time, it is obvious that the West is turning a blind eye to the possible long-term consequences of the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, as well as to the consequences of the use of other types of weapons, Izvestia writes.

"When Russia destroyed its chemical weapons, there were OPCW inspectors who filled out the protocol. We have a document signed by the head of the organization that Russia fulfilled its obligations in 2017. The Americans don’t have such documents. They weren’t as transparent," former member of the UN Commission on Disarmament Igor Nikulin told the newspaper. In his opinion, it is quite possible that the United States is still developing chemical weapons, and Ukraine is an ideal testing ground for them.

Vedomosti: Israeli Air Force attack on southern Lebanon could spiral into full-scale war

On the morning of August 25, the Israeli Air Force deployed about 100 fighter jets in a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon, the IDF press service reported. According to the Israeli military, most of these launchers were aimed at the north of the Jewish state, and some at the central part of the country. In total, more than 40 launch sites were hit during the airstrikes, killing at least three Lebanese citizens. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, the Israeli air strike has the potential to significantly escalate the Middle East conflict.

Israeli strikes on the southern Lebanese city of Khiam killed a fighter from the Hezbollah-allied Shia group known as Amal, the group’s press service reported. The identities of the other dead are still unknown. Later, IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that the Israeli air force had prevented Hezbollah from launching hundreds of rockets and dozens of drones into northern and central Israel.

Israel’s large-scale air assault came a month after Tel Aviv threatened Hezbollah with a "crushing blow" following the July 27 rocket attack on the Golan Heights that killed 12 people between the ages of 12 and 20.

Israel’s strike on southern Lebanon could be the catalyst that blows up the Middle East conflict, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council Kirill Semenov told Vedomosti. The expert recalled that since the beginning of the Gaza war in October 2006, Israel has been using small groups of warplanes against Hezbollah, and now the conflict is at a crossroads between continuing airstrikes or launching a large-scale ground invasion against Lebanon reminiscent of 2006.

Semenov suggests that the impending ceasefire agreement in Gaza with Hamas could usher in the Israeli army’s invasion of Lebanon, since Tel Aviv cannot wage war on two fronts.

The threat of opening a second front has loomed over Israel since the first days of the Gaza war, and the longer the fighting goes on, the more likely it becomes, military expert Alexander Ermakov agrees. However, the expert told Vedomosti that Israel is currently not ready to launch a ground operation in southern Lebanon, as most of the Israeli army is involved in the war with Hamas. In addition, the Israeli leadership understands that a potential war in the north will be much more difficult than in the south, the expert believes.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Washington seeks to thaw relations with China amid ongoing sanctions pressure

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will visit China on August 2, marking his first trip to Beijing under the Biden administration. Sullivan is expected to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss opportunities for cooperation between the two powers as well as contentious issues, including Taiwan. Ukraine is also expected to be on the agenda - the US is outraged over China’s alleged assistance to Russia in the form of materials and technologies needed for the military-industrial complex, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

A spokesman for the National Security Council said Sullivan’s trip was intended to strengthen strategic communication channels between the two countries. However, Washington is not optimistic that the two powers will be able to settle the beef brewing between them, according to the newspaper.

At first glance, it appears that Sullivan is trying to thaw relations with China. However, shortly after the news of Sullivan’s trip broke, the US imposed sanctions on more than 400 entities and individuals, including Chinese companies that, according to US officials, are helping Moscow get around Washington’s sanctions.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also tried to ease tensions with China. He flew to Beijing in April, but the visit yielded no real results, with both sides only expressing a desire to expand educational and cultural contacts.

"If Xi Jinping receives Sullivan, it will mean that he has brought some important message that warrants a high-level meeting. But that is unlikely. Major agreements are not expected," Alexander Lomanov, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. As for Ukraine, according to the expert, the US continues to squeeze China in terms of relations with Russia. But China is too big and too strong to succumb to such pressure, he added.

"Sanctions, which 10-15 years ago were a tool of US political influence on undesirable regimes, have now become a tool to contain and destroy certain companies and industries in China. Moreover, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, the number of Chinese companies and sectors under sanctions will only increase," Lomanov noted.

Kommersant: Analysts improve forecasts for Russia’s fertilizer production, exports

Forecasts for the supply of Russian potash fertilizers are improving due to the continued implementation of investment projects and high global demand at lower prices. According to the consensus forecast of the Price Index Center, in 2024-2026 potash production may grow to 16.5-17.7 mln tons per year and exports to 13.4-14 mln tons, which is significantly higher than previous estimates. The increase in supplies from Russia and other countries is putting pressure on global prices, market participants told Kommersant.

Nina Adamova, Director of the Center for Economic Forecasting, told the newspaper that in the first half of 2024, the production of potash fertilizers has increased 1.5-fold year-on-year and exceeded the figure for the first half of 2021 by 3.4%. According to her, the dynamics are facilitated by the continued implementation of investment projects, which slowed down in 2022-2023, the expansion of the presence of Russian companies in Asian markets, as well as high demand amid reduced prices.

Kommersant’s market source noted that Russia’s increased production and export volumes are putting pressure on the market. In addition, all global producers are increasing supplies, the source added. Analysts surveyed by the Price Index Center have reduced the expected price of potassium chloride on a FOB Baltic basis in Q3 and Q4 of 2024 to $217-233 per ton, against the previously expected $230-256 per ton.

At the same time, the price situation in the urea market may be more attractive for producers in the near future than expected. According to the Price Index Center’s consensus forecast, the cost of prilled urea on a FOB Baltic basis may rise to $322-335 per ton in the third and fourth quarters, compared with the previously expected $303-314 per ton. Analyst at the Price Index Center Alexandra Petrova believes the revision is due to an increase in the forecast for natural gas prices. The abnormal heat in Asia contributed to increased demand for energy resources and prices rose more than expected, she noted.

TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews