The risk of Western long-range missile strikes against Russia increases; Hamas is attempting to build resistance forces against Israel; and Latin American countries are paying less attention to the Russian-Ukrainian situation, despite Kiev’s efforts to win them over. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Likelihood of Western long-range missile strikes against Russia rises

Although UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden did not at least publicly give Ukraine permission to strike deep into Russian territory with Western weapons after their meeting on Friday, it is highly likely that they may do that soon, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The pressure on the leaders of both countries is growing and a wide range of Western politicians are insisting on giving permission, believing that this is the only way to force the Kremlin to sit down at the negotiating table.

The talks between UK and US leaders, which were preceded by visits to Ukraine by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, did not result in a decision on whether or not to give the Ukrainian military the go-ahead to strike deep into Russia. At least, that is the conclusion that can be drawn from the words of the participants, the newspaper writes.

Western officials seem to clearly understand that strikes deep into Russia, not with drones, but with everything that NATO countries are supplying and can supply to Ukraine, will radically change the nature of the hostilities, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The United States is also awaiting the presidential elections, a key event in the country’s political life. The two candidates for the White House seat, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump seem to have different ideas about how to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Meanwhile, Reuters, citing sources, claimed that the Ukrainian authorities have already handed over to the US and the UK a list of targets deep in Russian territory. These include command posts, military fuel and weapons depots, as well as sites of Russian troop concentrations. The Ukrainians propose to use not only UK Storm Shadow and US ATACMS missiles for strikes, but also French SCALP.

French President Emmanuel Macron gave a vague statement in May, saying that his country would not generally oppose such use of its missiles. It seems that the French authorities are simply waiting for the go-ahead from London and Washington, the main suppliers of long-range weapons to Kiev, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

The likelihood that at least the Starmer government will give its approval is ramps up the actions of the British opposition with the Conservatives criticizing the government for its indecisiveness on the Ukrainian issue.

Izvestia: Hamas gathers forces to resist Israel

Hamas is trying to organize units to resist Israel, the IDF told Izvestia. Although the military potential of the Palestinian movement has been severely weakened in the fighting, the group continues to hold hostages in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, public pressure on the leadership of the Jewish state is growing, demanding an immediate agreement and the return of hostages. At the same time, an agreement between Israel and Hamas seems to be an uphill battle due to the position of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"Hamas is no longer functioning as a full-fledged military organization. They are still resisting and trying to organize units and operational centers in schools and humanitarian areas," IDF spokesperson Major Anna Ukolova told Izvestia, adding that Israel is suppressing these attempts through targeted operations.

Indeed, the movement’s military potential has been significantly weakened during the operation that Israel has been conducting in the Gaza Strip since October 2023. Since the beginning of the unprecedented escalation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone, the IDF has been actively targeting command posts, underground tunnels, weapons depots and other key Hamas facilities. The destruction of this infrastructure weakens the organization’s ability to coordinate its actions and carry out large-scale operations, the newspaper writes.

In addition, the killing by Israeli troops of senior Hamas commanders, including those responsible for operational management and strategic planning, could lead to a temporary disarray in the movement’s ranks.

"Over the past 11 months, we have dealt a very heavy blow to Hamas. Some 17,000 militants have been eliminated. Among them are many commanders, including Mohammed Deif (head of the Ezzedeen al-Qassam Brigades - Izvestia). Most of the above-ground and underground infrastructure has been destroyed," the IDF representative noted.

At the same time, the negotiations between Hamas and Israel on reaching a ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages face many hurdles that make it difficult to conclude them successfully, according to Izvestia. The most important factor is Netanyahu’s intention to maintain a military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor - a narrow strip of land between Gaza and Egypt that plays a strategic role in ensuring Israel’s security and controlling the flow of smuggled goods and weapons.

Netanyahu’s insistence is also beginning to irritate regional mediators. "The reality is that Benjamin Netanyahu continues to throw a monkey wrench in the negotiating process. ... Netanyahu is trying to protract the conflict until Donald Trump comes to the White House in order to gain more benefits," Egyptian international relations expert Tarek al-Bardisi told Izvestia.

Izvestia: Kiev seeks to bring Latin American countries into its fold, but to no avail

The talks about holding the Ukraine-Latin America summit initiated by Argentina have died down, Izvestia writes. The ongoing conflict is not a priority for most countries in the region, and there is no unity in the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) on this issue, Russian Ambassador to Buenos Aires Dmitry Feoktistov told the newspaper. Despite the pro-Western policy of Javier Milei’s government, Russia and Argentina have established a working dialogue.

"At the moment, talks about holding such a meeting have died down somewhat, although we continue to see Kiev’s active attempts to win over Latin Americans. There is no unity in the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States on the Ukrainian issue. But it is not a priority for the countries of the region in general, because most of them have enough problems of their own. Solving them would require a concentration of efforts and resources. We appreciate the sincere desire of a number of states, in particular Brazil, to offer their ideas for resolving the conflict in Ukraine," the ambassador told Izvestia.

He noted that even after the change of power and foreign policy vector in Buenos Aires, trade relations between Russia and Argentina are maintained.

"Bilateral trade relations certainly remain, although negative trends are evident. Trade turnover began to decline under the previous government. Currently, we see a decrease of one third compared to the previous year’s figures. And since 2021 it has fallen by almost half," he noted.

Speaking about the mechanisms of interaction in terms of trade between the two countries, Feoktistov highlighted the role of the Russian-Argentine Intergovernmental Commission on Trade-Economic and Scientific-Technical Cooperation, "which considered issues of interaction in the fields of agriculture, energy, education, industry, rail transport and other areas." "However, recently, despite our reminders, the Argentinians have not shown any interest in holding another session of the commission," the ambassador noted.

Vedomosti: Georgian Dream party’s founder promises trial of 2008 war instigators

After the victory of the ruling Georgian Dream party in the October 26 elections, the Georgian authorities will apologize to the Ossetians for the war launched in August 2008 by President Mikheil Saakashvili, now sentenced to six years in prison, and will also come to reconciliation with South Ossetia, Vedomosti writes. The initiators of the war, including Saakashvili and his associates, will be brought to justice, the founder of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, said at a pre-election rally on September 14.

The proposal to apologize to the Ossetian side is primarily directed against Saakashvili and the opposition on the eve of the October elections, and is not an announcement of any practical steps to actually mend ties between Tbilisi and Tskhinvali, according to experts interviewed by Vedomosti.

These statements are part of Georgian Dream’s campaign to portray the start of this conflict by the ex-president and his supporters as a gamble that "torpedoed" Georgia’s normal economic development in recent years, Head of Sector Section for the Caucasus Staff Member Center for post-Soviet Studies Vadim Mukhanov believes.

"This way, Georgian Dream reminds us of the fatal mistakes of its political predecessors and emphasizes that it is ‘working on the mistakes’ and intends to correct them," Mukhanov told the newspaper.

At the same time, experts agree that these statements by the Georgian Dream representatives are made against the backdrop of a gradual improvement of relations between Russia and Georgia in the economic sphere. The fact that Tbilisi has refused to follow Kiev’s example and open a "second front" in the confrontation with Moscow can also be an indirect sign of improving relations between the two countries, political scientist and Caucasus expert Artur Atayev believes.

Vedomosti: Regulatory pressure on European banks’ subsidiaries in Russia increases

Russian subsidiaries of European banks are under pressure from two sides - the European Central Bank (ECB) is demanding that parent companies reduce their activities in Russia, and the Bank of Russia prohibits obstructing payments in foreign currency and transferring client data abroad, Vedomosti writes. According to experts interviewed by the newspaper, the way forward for banks may be to completely separate the activities of subsidiaries and parent companies.

Currently, only a few such players remain on the Russian market - Raiffeisenbank (Austria), OTP Bank (Hungary), and UniCredit Bank (Italy).

The Bank of Russia sent an order to the subsidiaries of European banks in the country prohibiting them from "refusing to perform transfers in foreign currency or creating technical obstacles to such transfers based on approaches that do not comply with Russian law".

Meanwhile, the European regulator in April 2024 sent orders to the Austrian banking group Raiffeisenbank International and the Italian financial group UniCredit to reduce their operations in Russia. According to the ECB’s requirements, the loan portfolio of Russia’s Raiffeisenbank (a subsidiary of RBI) must shrink by 65% by 2026 compared with the Q3 of 2023. The same reduction must be applied to international payments.

The Bank of Russia’s order is binding for all Russian credit institutions, regardless of whether they belong to a foreign financial group or not, NSP lawyer Alexandra Ignatyeva told Vedomosti. Since the subsidiaries are Russian legal entities, they are obliged to comply with Russian law, she added. Moreover, the ECB’s pressure on Russian subsidiaries is exerted indirectly through their parent companies, she noted.

Vadim Tkachenko, a lawyer and the founder and CEO of the vvCube consulting group, told the newspaper that the most appropriate regulatory option would be to completely separate the activities of subsidiaries and parent companies so that they are not dependent on each other. With this done, banks can "pass between Scylla and Charybdis", avoiding problems from both sanctions and non-compliance with the Central Bank’s regulations, he noted.

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