The aftermath of an attack on Hezbollah members in Lebanon, Russia is ready to conduct nuclear trials, and the ruble’s share in export transactions hits record highs. These stories topped Wednesday's newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Who is behind attack on Hezbollah members in Lebanon
Thousands of Hezbollah members and incidental victims sustained wounds when their pagers blew up simultaneously in various regions of Lebanon. The incident occurred amid escalated tensions between the Lebanon-based Shiite party Hezbollah and Israel, running high since October 2023 after the Gaza Strip-based radical Palestinian movement Hamas launched a surprise incursion into Israeli territory. Experts say that the destruction of Hezbollah communication devices will disrupt interaction between its units.
"This is indeed an unprecedented strike from the point of view of technologies used. Batteries and chargers may be artificially overheated and used as an explosive device. The other thing is that previously it was difficult to carry this out on such a large scale and in such a targeted way," Grigory Lukyanov, researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences told Izvestia.
"What happened can be viewed as yet another step toward the escalation of tensions. The situation is already indeed hanging by a thread and can get out of hand because both opposing sides, Israel and Hezbollah, have been making rather tough statements lately, balancing on the verge of an all-out war. Even Iran is trying to postpone this moment, fully realizing its consequences," Farhad Ibragimov, professor at the Faculty of Economics of the People’s Friendship University of Russia, told Izvestia.
"There is definitely an Israeli fingerprint here, although Israel will not claim responsibility because they do not want to get directly involved in a major war even though some politicians are saying that the country is ready for it. Iran will certainly make rather tough statements but will not go beyond them, realizing that harsher moves may trigger irreparable consequences. Hezbollah is being provoked to an open war, the movement may carry out some operations in Israel in response, so the situation here is rather dangerous," Ibragimov added.
"A truly serious, substantial blow has been dealt to Hezbollah’s combat ability, precisely from the point of view of coordinating actions. This strike will have an effect for some time. Until the coordination is restored, Hezbollah will remain vulnerable which can make Israel’s potential large-scale operation more effective than without this groundwork. On the other hand, the destructive impact on Hezbollah may be so strong that it might take any large-scale military operation off the agenda, while the supporters of a limited operation may get additional arguments in favor of it," Lukyanov noted, adding that the intention of the political leadership to launch a land invasion into Lebanon is highly exaggerated.
Kommersant: Russia’s Defense Ministry fully ready to resume nuclear trials
Head of Russia’s Central Testing Ground on the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago Rear Admiral Andrey Sinitsyn told the media that if "orders are received," nuclear trials can be conducted "at any moment." Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia could hold its first trials of nuclear weapons in modern history if the US made the first move.
The current Democratic US administration has ruled out such an option but Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s influential supporters think that resuming nuclear trials is rational.
Senior Researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Andrey Baklitsky told Kommersant that should the US decide to resume full-fledged nuclear tests, time is needed to conduct them. "Preparations for a nuclear trial, especially if the goal is to collect useful information, is a rather complex task both in terms of technology and execution. Since 1993, the US has established a norm of readiness for the trials of 24-36 months since the relevant decision is made. In 2017, during the Trump administration, the US Department of Energy said that in order to conduct a "simple" demonstration trial, this term may be reduced to 6-10 months but if a new charge is tested, preparations may take up to five years," the expert explained.
Officials did not specify how much time Russia needs to conduct nuclear trials after the country’s leadership makes a decision on the matter.
Izvestia: Ruble’s share in Russia’s transactions for export to Europe hits record highs
Russia is increasing its transactions in national currencies. The ruble’s share in payments for export with Europe has reached the historic high of 67%, according to Russia’s Central Bank. Transactions with Asia and Africa involve already 80% and 84% in national currencies (both Russian and those of partner countries), respectively. The structure of transactions is changing amid Western restrictions. As a result, the role of the dollar and euro is decreasing across the world, not only in trade with Russia but overall in the general global structure of transactions, experts say.
Other countries increasingly prefer to conduct international transactions in their own national currencies, noted Ilyas Zaripov of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. He reiterated that other options being considered are digital currencies of national banks, cryptocurrency (stablecoins) or a BRICS+ common currency, which is currently being actively discussed.
"Mutual transactions in national currencies help create a world with equal opportunities for the development of all countries," stressed economist Alexey Khizhnyak from the Moscow branch of the Business Russia organization, adding that Russia’s new main partners realize this as well.
As much as 75% of the entire Russia-China trade turnover is already in the yuan: it is convenient for Russia to conduct export transactions not only in rubles but also in the Chinese currency to immediately pay for foreign expenses, Antonina Levashenko from the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) explained. In addition to oil and gas, Russia is supplying China with large amounts of coal, copper, precious-metal ores and aluminum, she added.
Vedomosti: Von der Leyen unveils European Commission’s new cabinet
European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed the EC’s new lineup for the next five years. The new cabinet consists of 40% of women, primarily as vice-presidents. "Every member of my team will bring in their own experience and perspectives on Europe. Together, we will be one team, working towards one common goal. To make Europe stronger," she wrote on X.
The previous European Commission has already been hawkish toward Russia, so one should not expect a more constructive approach from the new European appointees, said research fellow at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations Artyom Sokolov. According to him, von der Leyen’s picks once again confirm that no changes in the EU’s foreign policy should be expected. All nominations were quite predictable, he noted.
The new EC cabinet may become even more hostile toward Russia, said Vladislav Belov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe. According to him, Kaja Kallas as the EU’s top diplomat will be no less tough than her predecessor. That said, the expert noted that from Brussels’ point of view, there are still resources to worsen Russia-EU relations.
The new post of a European commissioner for defense is important, because lately the EU has been actively militarizing, said Alexander Kamkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Additionally, in the defense sphere, the European Union is being guided by the potential election of Donald Trump as US president, which may trigger a review of the level of cooperation in this field.
Vedomosti: Analysts forecast higher export price for Russian gas
The average export price for Russian pipeline gas in 2024 will reach $297 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to a survey by the Price Index Center made available to Vedomosti. The document explains that it was prepared based on the consensus forecast of Russian think-tanks.
Alexey Belogoryev, research director of the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, who participated in drafting the document, noted that higher forecasts were triggered by growth tendencies of spot gas prices in Europe and Asia. He reiterated that spot prices in Q4 are normally higher than in Q3.
Senior analyst at BCS World of Investments Ronald Smith thinks that the actual export price for Russian gas in 2024 may even surpass the Price Index Center's forecast. According to him, Gazprom’s export earnings will correspond to last year’s figures. The expert explained that the growth of the company’s deliveries to China and Europe will be compensated by lower prices in Europe in the first half of 2024 versus last year’s January-June.
Belogoryev is more optimistic. In his opinion, the company’s earnings from pipeline gas exports in 2024 may increase by up to 10%.
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