Israel is moving closer to its goal of destroying Hezbollah; China makes a bid for Ukraine peace with its "Friends of Peace" platform; and the UK plans to discuss possible tweaks to the Brexit deal with the EU. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines in Russia.
Izvestia: Analysts weigh in on risks of wider regional conflict in Middle East
The Israeli Army continued to strike targets in Lebanon after it eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday. On September 29, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it had struck dozens of launch sites and buildings in which Hezbollah weapons were stored. Besides, the Israeli military killed Nabil Qaouk, a member of the Shia paramilitary group’s Central Council, as well as Ali Karki, the former Commander of Hezbollah's Southern Front. Hezbollah confirmed their death on Sunday. Israel also reported the elimination of Hassan Khalil Yassin, a high-ranking Hezbollah intelligence officer, bringing the total death toll among senior Hezbollah officials in the past few weeks to around 30.
And Israel is set to continue with its attacks against the Arab republic. On Saturday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the elimination of Nasrallah will return residents to northern Israel and could swing the regional balance of power "for years." Amid these statements, the Western media has been speculating on the chance of a major Israeli ground operation in Lebanon, similar to its ongoing operation in the Gaza Strip.
While Dmitry Maryasis, researcher at the Department of Israel Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, for one, sees a greater likelihood that a ground operation will happen soon, experts doubt the aggression against Lebanon will escalate to a direct conflict between Iran and Israel. "They do not share a common border. And exchanging airstrikes would also be difficult as that would mean major fighting in the skies over the countries lying between them — Iraq, Syria and Jordan. I can hardly imagine such a scenario," Sergey Demidenko, of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), told Izvestia.
Program Coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council Ivan Bocharov agrees that the latest escalation between Israel and Hezbollah will not trigger a wider conflict in the Middle East. "Arab countries will most likely try to distance themselves from the war between Israel and Hezbollah. Arab leaders may ramp up their rhetoric on Israel. They could also send humanitarian aid to Lebanon. But it’s quite hard to imagine an Arab country that is willing to fight against Israel now," he concluded.
Vedomosti: China's 'Friends of Peace' platform aims to deliver truce in Ukraine
Chinese and Brazilian delegates who advocated for a joint communique toward resolving the Ukraine conflict earlier held the first meeting of a new platform, Friends of Peace, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi told about the meeting that involved representatives from the Global South at talks with Celso Amorim, chief advisor to the Brazilian president. Several NATO countries, including Hungary, later expressed their interest in joining the new platform.
Meanwhile, the joint proposal for peace negotiations presented by Wang and Amorim in late May 2024 has been approved by more than 110 countries, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. In it, the two sides said that negotiations were "the only viable solution to the Ukraine" crisis as they called for convening an international peace conference that is recognized by both Russia and Ukraine to discuss all peace initiatives.
However, the inclusivity of the platform formed under the aegis of friendly countries raised some eyebrows in Russia. At a news conference in New York on September 28, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed his surprise that France and Switzerland took part in the meeting. In turn, Swiss Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nicolas Bidaeu confirmed that his country supports the China-Brazil peace proposal even if it makes no explicit reference to Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
China is seeking to play a key role in resolving the conflict in the future, Director of the HSE Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies Vasily Kashin told Vedomosti. To him, the China-Brazil initiative would benefit Russia as it implies completely equal terms for both contracting parties, something that Kiev opposes. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky would rather bring 50 Western countries and Kiev’s allies together to put pressure on Russia. While China and Brazil do not recognize Russia’s new territories, they insist that the interests of all parties, not just Ukraine, should be taken into account. France and Switzerland were allowed to attend the meeting as observers following multiple requests, Kashin emphasized.
Inclusivity is exactly what the Friends of Peace platform aims for, which is why France and Switzerland were admitted as observers, Russia in Global Affairs Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov believes. According to the expert, as a large and powerful global player, China feels pressure from the rest of the world to help in conflict resolution. However, he continued, Friends of Peace can only be effective if all countries support the terms of the peace initiative and are willing to discuss it, a scenario for which neither Russia nor Ukraine is currently ready.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Britain seeks to renegotiate Brexit terms
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to Brussels later this week for talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Among other major issues, the two officials would like to revisit the terms of Brexit. More pro-European than the right-leaning Tories, the Labour party was originally against the country’s exit from the European Union. Now, as the move is irreversible, the ruling party would like to revisit some of Brexit’s provisions, mostly regarding migration.
EU officials emphasize that it is time for Labour to clearly articulate to Brussels what specific changes they seek. The EU, for its part, has already outlined what it might be willing to offer in return. Any concessions are expected to be modest, mainly focusing on improving access for EU citizens to the UK and vice versa for Britons traveling to the EU. Not every member of Starmer’s cabinet is open to such a concession though. British Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has come out against the move, fearing it would create a loophole allowing illegal migrants who are not wanted in the EU to arrive in the country.
However, the European Union argues that by accommodating its migration demands, London would show how serious it is about reworking the terms of Brexit. But even as the bloc may persuade Starmer to make certain concessions, Britain will not rejoin the EU’s single market.
"I wouldn’t expect any major changes to Brexit, even as details concerning trade and economic cooperation can be tweaked," Lyudmila Babynina, head of the Center for Political Integration of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The Brexit deal envisaged a potential review in 2026, so London and Brussels could tackle this issue next year, she argues. Also, she said, Scotland and Wales are now working actively toward simplifying access to the EU for students, therefore the migration issue could indeed see some changes.
Izvestia: Russia, Iran on verge of sealing gas supply deal
Iran and Russia are closing in on a deal for the supply of natural gas, Iranian Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi told Izvestia. Russia has not confirmed that any specific talks are being held though. Tehran has also said that Russian companies have shown an interest in working with Iran as it can see a solid foundation for cooperation with Moscow in the nuclear sphere as well.
It's worth noting that Iran, which has the world’s second-largest proven gas reserves, has no shortage of natural gas. So, signing such a contract with the Islamic Republic may serve the strategic purpose of fast-tracking a similar contract with China. "This may rather be an attempt to show to China that Gazprom has alternative export markets that are willing to buy large volumes," lead analyst at the National Energy Fund Igor Yushkov explained.
Yet another explanation exists. Iran is a large country, so having the necessary infrastructure is as important as having enough gas. While all Iranian gas fields are located in the country’s south, its population is mostly concentrated in the north, which is why some areas, especially rural ones, experience a gas deficit in winter, despite the availability of major gas reserves, Iranian political analyst Amir Chahaki told Izvestia. According to him, Tehran may be better served buying gas abroad for its northern areas and selling its own gas reserves in the south. Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian could discuss signing the deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, Chahaki said.
Meanwhile, Russia has been pushing to enter alternative markets to send its hydrocarbon reserves, Deputy General Director of the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach said. Russia has been sending more gas to China while expanding exports to Uzbekistan, too. Also, talks to establish a natural gas hub in Turkey have been promising: Russia is already selling substantial volumes to Turkey and may even launch an international gas trading center in Istanbul, Grivach added.
Kommersant: Profit margins rise for Russian coal exports via southern, northwestern ports
Returns on Russia’s thermal coal exports from the country’s northwestern and southern ports, which used to be completely unprofitable previously, grew slightly in the third quarter, according to the Price Index Center (PIC).
Netback, or exporters’ net revenue minus logistics costs, from Russian thermal coal exports via those hubs rose in the third quarter, rivaling shipments via ports in Russia’s east, the PIC said in a report. PIC head Natalya Porokhova said by the end of the third quarter the netback figure for 6,000 kcal thermal coal in Kuzbass rose to $23 to $25 per metric ton for deliveries across both eastern and western seaports. "Earlier this year, the netback for western exports was negative," the expert said.
This came as thermal coal prices decreased in China and India, major buyers of Russian coal, Porokhova explained. Logistics costs account for at least 80% of coal exports to India, at market rates, including a 36% share of maritime logistics.
However, the netback has not grown enough to cover production costs, Alexander Titov from the Institute of Energy and Finance argues. In the second quarter, the production cost of coal stood at $31.8 per metric ton. Despite growing prices in the western directions, real opportunities for exports toward the Baltic or Taman seaports are limited, Titov warned.
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